Preferred Prime Minister

I don’t think the ‘Preferred Prime Minister’ polls prove very much but as John Key has shrunk further to 36% in the latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll it may be of a bit of interest to look at more details.

  • John Key 36%
  • Andrew Little 8%
  • Winston Peters 8%

Looking further back:

colmarpreferrednov2016

Key jumped when he became National leader in 2007 and climbed from there through to 2012. Since then he declined quite a bit and levelled off for three years but is dipping again. But his last six results (back to October 2015) are barely out of margin of error variance:

  • 40%, 40%, 39%, 39%, 38%, 36%

However Andrew Little has never risen to any extent. His last six results

  • 8%, 9%, 7%, 7%, 10%, 8%

Others ‘preferred’ in the latest poll:

  • Don’t know 34%
  • Other 3%
  • None 2%
  • Refused 1%
  • Jacinda Ardern 1%
  • Metiria Turei 1%
  • Phil Goff 1%

Goff is now mayor of Auckland. Ardern is hardly knocking on the leadership door.

  • Grant Robertson 0.5%
  • Te Ururoa Flavell 0.4%
  • Helen Clark 0.3%
  • James Shaw 0.3%
  • Peter Dunne 0.3% (first time included over the last year)
  • Annette King 0.2%
  • Paula Bennett 0.2%

Bennett is the best of the National alternatives.

  • Tariana Turei 0.2%
  • Shane Jones 0.1%

Neither of them have been MPs for years.

  • Gerry Brownlee 0.1%
  • Gareth Morgan 0.1%
  • David Shearer 0.1%
  • Stephen Joyce 0.1%

0.1% is 1 respondent out of the 1,010 eligible voters asked.

Click to access Preliminary_ONE-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-Nov-12-13-21-23.pdf

 

 

Leave a comment

2 Comments

  1. If we allocate the 40% of voters in the same proportions between Key and Little we get this result: Key=36 + 14.4=50.4%
    Little=8 + 3.2 = 11.2%
    The margin continues to be decisive in my view.

    Reply
  2. I should have made it clear that 40% is the number of voters who did not state a preference during the poll.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s