Is Labour a 19% party?

Colmar Brunton’s recent poll had Labour on 28%, and the just released Roy Morgan poll has them on 23%. One is bad, the other is an awful result.

But is it a surprise?

Andrew Little has failed to impress – this interview with RNZ yesterday is unfortunately typical, fumbles and bumbles interspersed with a few tired slogans: Labour warns about rise in borrowings for first homes.

His Speech to the Property Council’s Residential Development Summit didn’t even rate a post at The Standard (someone lamented the lack of media coverage).

Instead attention was on yet another defection from Labour, and all Little could say was, effectively, ‘good riddance’.

Nick Leggett ‘wasn’t true Labour’ – Andrew Little

Labour leader Andrew Little has rubbished former Porirua Mayor Nick Leggett’s chances of winning a seat next year as a National Party candidate.

“I’m not particularly worried – we’ve got a fantastic MP in Mana who’s established himself,” Mr Little told Newshub.

“I said at the time when Nick stood for the Wellington mayoralty that he wasn’t true Labour. He claimed that he was. He wasn’t elected.

“I think that New Zealanders actually see through people who say they are one thing but they’re not, and they get backed by the 1 percent to challenge Labour MPs and Labour candidates. I think people are past that so no, I’m not particularly worried.”

“People who are aligned to the Labour cause actually genuinely take action about improving housing, about lifting incomes, about making sure that schools are properly funded, and our hospitals are properly funded.

“What they don’t do is go around looking for those on the highest incomes to back them – to challenge whoever because that’s all they want. Labour people, passionate Labour in their heart – they stick with Labour, they campaign on Labour issues, and for the Labour Party. Nick’s not one of those people.”

Mr Little says there won’t be any last-minute conversations to try to keep Mr Leggett on.

“I think he’s pretty much said that he’s not interested in Labour. John Key’s calling him, and they’re welcome to that relationship.

What’s notable about Leggett’s defection is someone with obvious political ambition sees no future for himself in the labour party.

‘True Labour’ seems to be a rapidly narrowing (but poorly defined) brand. The only thing that seems to be consistent is spraying those who walk away from the party with bitterness.

Shane Jones. Phil Goff. Clayton Cosgrove. David Cunliffe. Gone or going. There are calls for David Shearer to go as well as he is not seem as ‘true Labour’ by some on the left.

Josie Pagani and Phil Quin are often lambasted for not being ‘Labour’ enough, as are many people who get abused on Twitter, Facebook and The Standard.

And that wasn’t all yesterday. 1 News reported ‘Bugger that!’ – Labour members leave party over proposed deal with Green Party in Nelson

Eight Labour members have quit the party in protest over a proposed electorate deal with the Greens in Nelson.

It includes one supporter who held membership for 30 years and the campaign’s coordinator is also understood to have walked away.

One of those who quit said the members had emailed in their resignations – and the reasons – to the party.

“They were eight core people and they’ve walked away. They expected us to help the Greens… we’re not going to work for the Greens, bugger that.”

The ex-member said supporters were unhappy about how they learned about the proposed deal.

“It leaked out at the [annual] conference. One of the candidates was told by Andrew Little… people here are really angry.

On Tuesday Little virtually denied there was any deal being done with Greens in Nelson after Metiria Turei sprung a surprise by going public and left Little floundering.

Labour’s general secretary Andrew Kirton said:”We’ve had a couple of resignations but nothing different to the usual flow of members coming and going across the country.”

The ‘usual flow’ seems to be down the twenties. Is Labour heading for 20%? Little and the Labourites who remain seem happy burn off support as they turn the party to ashes.

It looks increasingly like New Zealand will remain dominated by a single party, with a few smaller ones yapping from the sidelines.

What will it take for the penny to drop within Labour? 19%?

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  1. Leggett ‘didn’t have much choice’ but to jump ship – expert

    Massey University Professor Claire Robinson said Andrew Little has been so vocal about Nick Leggett being disloyal to the party.

    “What do you do? You can’t hang around waiting to be told or advised when you become loyal again, so actually I think he didn’t have much choice but to stand for another party.”

    She said it’s not unusual for candidates to change parties before being elected, but people don’t usually find out.

    Robinson is right. Little had made it clear that while he was leader Leggett had no future with Labour.

    Leggett is obviously ambitious so had to look elsewhere.

    • Blazer

       /  1st December 2016

      Leggett is the new Gilbert Myles.

      • Corly

         /  1st December 2016

        He will make a fine Rightie, Blazer. He will drink from the golden goblet of success and influence…the birthright of all Righties. God bless our way…THE RIGHT WAY.

  2. PDB

     /  1st December 2016

    PG: “Andrew Little has failed to impress – this interview with RNZ yesterday is unfortunately typical, fumbles and bumbles interspersed with a few tired slogan”

    If you think he is bad now under no pressure at all how bad will he be on the campaign trail and in the debates, especially his one-on-ones with Key?

    Unfortunately the ‘real’ Labour people have either left or are leaving Labour in their droves because ‘real’ labour doesn’t bend to the will of the nutty Greens, nor does it abandon good economic principles purely because it doesn’t fit some far-left wing narrative a minority group wish to impose on it.

  3. PDB

     /  1st December 2016

    PG: “Is Labour a 19% party?”

    Not quite, I believe there is still a hard-core 22% or so of the voting population that would vote Labour regardless of how poor they become.

    • Kevin

       /  1st December 2016

      Labour’s strategy is all about waiting until the economy tanks and enough people end up poor that they all give National the finger and vote Labour.

  4. It’s hard to imagine what could be the catalyst for any increasing self awareness. The party has its head in the sand, hands over its ears and is singing “na,na,na,na,na,” while their credibility crumbles. It seems unconscionable that a once-proud party can be so bereft of piblic appeal, fresh ideas and utterly inspiring leadership. Consistently below 30% for this length of time indicates they’re down to a core of only party faithful intending to give them the nod. The more they continue to narrow and weaken their brand (Lab/Greens) and stay in opposition the less likely emergent youth voters are to imagine them as an alternative.
    You’re clearly failing to mirror and reflect public sentiment when you’ve permanently lost 70-75% of the public.

    I don’t think the influence of the earthquakes can be underestimated in this failure to gain traction. What happened to the trenches? The “we’re in this together” and all that. Opposition can look very small and churlish in the face of suffering, and that leads to a perception of a lack of patriotism also.

    As for a quick fix this week. If Andrew Little was to make himself and his family available to the public, he’d enjoy a lift. That’s the reality TV nature these days of politics. There’s no need to go full Kardashian/Trump dynasty, but it’d certainly give him another dimension. He’s perceived as too remote and mysterious.

  5. Klik Bate

     /  1st December 2016


    • Sponge

       /  1st December 2016

      Stanley Goodspeed: I’ll do my best.
      John Mason: Your “best”! Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and fuck the prom queen.

      I can’t see Dave Little fucking any Prom Queens – can you?

  6. patupaiarehe

     /  1st December 2016

    IMHO, Labour are a 15% party, and the polls are inaccurate.Years ago I was a Labour supporter, but I don’t feel they represent me anymore, as I am neither homosexual, nor unemployed.

    • Blazer

       /  1st December 2016

      ipso facto ,you are now an employed ,heterosexual,and no longer support Labour….very good Pat,no stereotyping or generalisations…ehoa!

      • patupaiarehe

         /  1st December 2016

        I am not ‘now’ that Blazer, I always was. It isn’t me who has changed, e hoa 😛


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