Mt Roskill poll v. political claims

There seems to have been a non-public poll done for the Mt Roskill by-election for Labour, but there are mixed messages.

A week ago in NZ’s feeblest John Key parrot is on the brink of a shellacking in Mt Roskill  Simon Wilson wrote:

Labour has a poll that puts their candidate, Michael Wood, 30 points ahead, at 58 to 28. That’s a spectacular fail in an electorate where National won the party vote in 2014 by 2000.

That would be a spectacular result, but without any details about the poll, when it was taken, what the questions were, and what the sample size and method were, it’s worth being very wary – especially when a party with a vested interest promotes the results.

This came up again today, started by a tweet from Labour MP Phil Twyford.

@PhilTwyford
Never mind Key’s spin, the Herald has the numbers on why Roskill is no slam dunk for Michael Wood

@BenThomasNZ
Even post-Trump, NZ spin is parties vying to claim that they will in fact suffer the most humiliating defeat

@PhilTwyford
Unlike Key we are not predicting defeat, just that Roskill may be close run and that we have to work hard for it.

@robhosking
Thought your internal polling was supposed to be putting you 30 points ahead?

‏@PhilTwyford
Don’t believe every bit of unsourced speculation you hear.

@robhosking
I didn’t say I believed it. But @simonbwilson was on NatRad this morning saying Labour had told him this. So either Simon’s bullshitting (which I very much doubt) or someone’s bullshitting Simon.

@simonbwilson
No reason to doubt my sources. Plural. Both parties have reason to argue it’s close. Both bullshitting? Oh dear, agony for another 28 hours!

@robhosking
Theoretically, that poll *should* be accurate [safe seat; 3rd term Nat govt, etc]. But things are weird right now.

@simonbwilson  Strong Lab cand + strong campaign. Weak Nat cand. Greens X. 3rd party votes off Parmar. By-elect. Crime. House $. Key says nah.

Most things point to a comfortable win to Labour’s Wood, but it may close up, that poll is over a week old.

But why did Twyford emphasise “Roskill is no slam dunk” and “Roskill may be close run”?

Leave a comment

5 Comments

  1. David

     /  2nd December 2016

    National and their stupid diversity nonsense has given them half a dozen woeful politicians on the list who are totally unelectable in a constituency. They are as bad as the left with their stupid allocations on gender race etc. just get a decent candidate the public dont care what label they are, Goff was a middle aged white guy and nailed it everytime.

    Reply
  2. Simon Wilson =METRO =stupidity+failure

    Reply
  3. spanish_tudor

     /  2nd December 2016

    I think National have been exposed over the last three terms as being particularly rubbish at contesting by-elections. When they haven’t the benefit of the entire National party machine on the job, and the exposure that goes with a nationwide campaign, they really seem to just phone it in…

    Contests that were talked up in Mana, Mt Albert, Northland, Christchurch East, and now Mt Roskill, due to National’s high polling nationally, all fizzled to nothing for National.

    Reply
  4. Ray

     /  2nd December 2016

    Has a governing party ever one an extra seat in a by-election.
    A parent apparently not, so a big ask.

    Reply

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