National didn’t show up in Mt Roskill

John Key may have not meant this literally but perhaps it tells us something about National’s lacklustre efforts in the Mt Roskill by-election.

“No other political party other than Labour showed up. The Greens didn’t show up. New Zealand First didn’t show up and, actually, the voters didn’t show up,” he said.

Mt Roskill by-election victory ‘a pretty small bar for Andrew Little to get over’: John Key

He didn’t name National, and his party stood a candidate, but they seemed to not try and not care.

Key said they did a poll three weeks before the election that showed Labour’s Michael Wood well ahead but National had given up on going for a win long before that. Key says they never considered a National win. That showed.

What is it with National and by-elections? Their Northland candidate selection and campaign was very poor, and they were trounced by Winston Peters.

Do they not care about by-elections? Losing Northland was a major defeat, not just of a safe National seat but it also significantly weakened National’s coalition voting power, as National+Act no longer held a majority.

Winning Mt Roskill would have given National an important extra MP, but they would probably not be wanting to push through controversial National+Act legislation in an election year.

Was handing an easy win to Labour tactical? Andrew Little is saying the Mt Roskill win ‘is proof that Labour can win a general election’, following their local body election successes.

Labour may be trying to spin what they can out of their win, but it sounds like they believe they are now in with a shot in next year’s election, despite trailing National by about 20% in polls (more in some).

The Wood win means that Little is secure as leader until the election. Key and National are probably quite happy about that.

But National may have problems with arrogancy and complacency. Losing by-elections has become a habit.

Next year’s election looks like National’s to lose and Labour on their own are a long way from being competitive, now relying on at least the Greens and also probably hoping NZ First will agree to a triumverate coalition (triumverate  is probably not appropriate given Little’s not very powerful leadership and Greens having co-leaders).

But I don’t think a National loss should be ruled out, especially given their by-election performances.

Steven Joyce engineered cleverness may bite them on the bum – National+NZ First could end up being a pain in the nether regions.

Leave a comment

16 Comments

  1. Klik Bate

     /  5th December 2016

    Parmjeet and Steven certainly don’t look too happy……..but what I’d like to know, is what on earth Paula is drinking out of that Agee jar ❓

    Reply
    • duperez

       /  5th December 2016

      Does Humble pie come in liquid form?

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  5th December 2016

        1. Michael inviting Parmjeet’s fella to step outside over his remark’s about Mike’s missus – probably picked him up several more votes from the sorts of blokes AND sheilas who go to boxing matches and cage fights.

        2. The horseshoe-throwing enforcers might have been a clincher.

        Reply
    • Blazer

       /  5th December 2016

      prune and lemon juice I expect.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  5th December 2016

        Parmjeet & Steven look totally pissed off. Paula looks happy as, and, actually, a bit spaced out. Whatever’s in that jar is probably stronger than lemon juice.

        Reply
  2. David

     /  5th December 2016

    The bigger risk was having a candidate with zero chances of winning saying something stupid and damaging National..like in Northland. Strategically having Little get a win and be secure is probably better than him getting rolled and the risk of someone 5% more popular taking over, a new leader not currently an MP who could encourage other quality candidates to step up.

    Reply
  3. duperez

     /  5th December 2016

    “Their Northland candidate selection and campaign was very poor…”

    Parties choose who they see as the best person available to be their candidate.

    Some of the blurb about the next National candidate for Northland extolling his abilities included the fact that he had previously been unsuccessful for selection against Mike Sabin and Mark Osborne. Twice the conclusion was reached that he was inferior. Against those two.

    He will be said, in the parlance, to have “grown another leg,” is now more experienced to better serve the North and will “give it 110%.” Past the recent bluster, the showcasing of the CV and his claimed eminent suitability though it will be reasonable to expect a common question in reference to that selection, “What?”

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  5th December 2016

      Newshub: “Mr [Matt] King said Mr Osborne has “been a big help” and offered some advice for the campaigning process, but would not go into the details”.

      Do EVERYTHING differently from me?

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  5th December 2016

        Given his track record, maybe: “Don’t let Steven Joyce or National HQ anywhere near your campaign.”

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  5th December 2016

          Good advice. Nice to see him looking grumpy.

          Mr King has lived in Northland most of his life. He is a farmer, fraud investigator, volunteer firefighter with the Okaihau Brigade, and was previously a NZ Police Detective.

          “Also, follow Peters around everywhere. Go through his rubbish bins at night. Wear a disguise.”

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  5th December 2016

            Mark: “Record everything he says for possible use in evidence against him”.
            Matt: “Yeah, righto. Thanks Mark. Close the door on your way out please.”

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  5th December 2016

              Mark: “One more thing – photograph him meeting with anyone – especially a shady looking character who presents him with a bottle of an expensive single malt!”

              Matt: “Door!”

          • duperez

             /  5th December 2016

            Good advice!
            Mr King had lived in Northland most of his life, was a farmer, fraud investigator, volunteer firefighter with the Okaihau Brigade, and was previously a NZ Police Detective and he still wasn’t as good for the job as Sabin and Osborne so he’ll have to come up with something special. Alan Wilkinson’s suggestion might just be the best one.
            (I do know that great things come out of Okaihau.)

            Reply
  4. Zedd

     /  5th December 2016

    ‘team KEY’ says it all (its all about HIM).. most are just ‘yes-men/women’ who fill the seats.

    totally out of touch.. would the REAL ‘National party’ pls stand up !! 😀

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s