What will the polls do?

Now Bill English has taken over from John Key as Prime Minister there will be a lot of interest in what the polls do.

Internal party pollsters may be busy but the public are unlikely to get much of an indication this year.

Roy Morgan may do a December poll but their polling is usually over two weeks so would span the transition from Key resigning to English taking over. At best it may give us a rough indication.

I think it will be the end of March before we get a good idea of whether the polls show any support shifts or not, by then we will have several Roy Morgan polls plus possibly Colmar Brunton and Reid Research polls for comparison.

Poll possibilities:

  • National hold or rise – I wouldn’t rule this out but it’s feasible, Labour, Greens and NZ First haven’t changed apart from their hope levels.
  • National drop a bit, but from currently high forties to mid forties which is still within recent fluctuations – I think this is most likely short term while the public ponders.
  • National drop to the low end of their recent range in the low forties – quite possible but unless English stuffs something up badly I think less likely.
  • National support crashes and Labour leaps – a lefty dream rather than likely reality.

Andrew at Grumpollie has looked at what might happen with ‘preferred Prime Minister’ based on past Colmar Brunton trends in WHY WE SHOULDN’T GET EXCITED ABOUT THE NEXT PREFERRED PM RESULT:

The next Colmar Brunton preferred Prime Minister result will generate a lot of interest – probably a few cheers from the opposition and kind folks at The Standard, and fairly cautious or defensive responses from some National Party supporters.

Here are my predictions:

  1. Bill English’s result will be lower than John Key’s current result of 36%.
  2. Andrew Little and/or Winston Peters’ results will increase, but probably not substantially (which one does or doesn’t increase could be interesting!)
  3. John Key will still feature strongly in the results for this question.
  4. Support will increase for Paula Bennett and Simon Bridges.

He also suggests what reactions will be and why people need to ‘calm the farm’ – I hope media will remain calm but doubt they will resist trying to make a sensation out of rough indicators.

There are also some interesting trend charts from Colmar.

The only certainty is that polls will continue to fluctuate – plus too much will be read into them by media and pundits with vested interests.

 

 

Leave a comment

12 Comments

  1. Corky

     /  13th December 2016

    Stay the same…give or take a few points. Its doesn’t matter. The Left have lost, win or lose. The Right is far more capable of morphing should it become a political necessity.

    Reply
  2. PDB

     /  13th December 2016

    Labour have painted themselves into a corner by forming an alliance with the Greens leading into the election – Winston can only go with the right as a consequence. The Maori-Mana relationship that allows the fringe-loonies back into the Maori fold means the chances of them being in govt post-2017 is virtually non-existent as well.

    Reply
  3. PDB

     /  13th December 2016

    You heard it here first;

    National 46%, Labour 27%, Greens 13%, Winston First 10%, the rest (who cares).

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  13th December 2016

      Pull Dick Blogger.

      Reply
      • patupaiarehe

         /  13th December 2016

        Keep it seemly please Blazer. What are your ‘picks’ ?

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  13th December 2016

          my pick is that if English does not go to the polls early,a left coalition will prevail.If a week is a long time in politics ,11 months is an eternity, when many negative factors can and will impact on the current ‘rosy’ picture.Funnily enough I quite like Billy as far as Natz pollies go.Has some decency,but needs to reverse the state house sell off and address inequality.

          Reply
          • patupaiarehe

             /  13th December 2016

            I suspect that the only reason you like ‘Billy’, is coz’ you know he can’t win an election. 😀

            Reply
  4. @pantsdownbrown

    ALCP 10%++ !! 😀

    Reply
  5. There’s an idea …. have polls predicting what the polls will do … !!!

    Reply
  6. patupaiarehe

     /  13th December 2016

    You forgot the other possibility Pete…
    National crash, and their loss is NZF & ACT’s gain. My picks for early next year…
    National 35%
    Labour 19%
    NZF 25%
    Greens 13%
    ACT 5%
    Maori 2%
    Others 1%

    Reply
  7. Gezza

     /  13th December 2016

    National 46%
    Labour 25%
    NZF 82%
    Greens 13%
    ACT 0.7%
    Maori 2%
    Others 1%

    Reply
  8. If English does not go down at least 5% then the Key factor is a myth. If it goes down by 10% then we are in a competition for next election, with a proviso that it may reflect a less than positive Cabinet selection. Labour can not win under little unless it is robbing a bank or investing in pot/ice etc. It is bankrupt and still doesn’t acknowledge it.

    Reply

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