An un-contested by-election?

It’s possible Jacinda Ardern could win the Mt Albert by-election uncontested, if no other candidates stand.

David Shearer’s resignation from his Mt Albert electorate has precipitated a by-election next February.

Ardern has expressed an interest in standing. If she gets Labour’s nomination it would be very likely she would win the by-election.

National has decided it would be futile to stand a candidate so have chosen not to. That’s a pragmatic decision.

Greens and NZ First chose not to stand candidates in the recent Mt Roskill by-election. It makes sense for them to also stay out of the Mt Albert by-election.

This would make the by-election virtually uncontested. All it would take to avoid the cost and futility would be for no other candidates to stand, so Ardern would win the electorate uncontested.

There is a chance an attention seeking candidate would stand against Ardern, forcing a million dollar farce. All it takes to stand for election is two nominations from voters from the electorate – the candidate themselves don’t have to live in the electorate.

It’s most likely at least one other candidate will put themselves forward, but there would probably be little media interest and little voter interest.

An uncontested by-election would be the logical option but that’s probably a long shot.

It’s also possible Labour’s nomination might be contested.

Would Laila Harre be tempted? Probably not in Mt Albert, she has been linked to New Lynn.

Would Andrew Little bet tempted? Again probably not, he has shown no inclination to relocate from Wellington to Auckland.

Leave a comment

37 Comments

  1. Andrew Little must be tempted, especially with the current polls suggesting an uncertain future for those on the Labour list. Were he to stand however he’d face the risk of National doing an about turn and crushing him – again

    Reply
  2. Zedd

     /  20th December 2016

    I hear ALCP, may be standing too..

    btw; I think English’s real agenda is to avoid LOSING again.. before the G-E in 2017 ๐Ÿ˜€

    Reply
  3. Klik Bate

     /  20th December 2016

    A friend from ‘Windy-Wello’ leaks….

    Reply
  4. Alan Wilkinson

     /  20th December 2016

    Unfortunately an uncontested election would be irresistible to a publicity-seeker like Penny Bright etc so it won’t happen. They should change to law to allow the party to replace the resigning MP with another from their list. Mid-term by-elections make no sense in an MMP system.

    Reply
    • Sounds good in theory but an electorate shouldn’t have a list MP foisted on them without a vote. The whole point of MMP was give folks the chance to get the local representative they want, plus indicate the party they prefer nationally. There’s enough evidence of “vote-splitting” to support a fair-dinkum by-election. It is a cost, but a necessary one. Perhaps MPs resigning midterm and/or their parties should contribute, given that they are effectively reneging on their three year commitment.

      Reply
  5. patupaiarehe

     /  20th December 2016

    I’m hoping NZF put a good candidate forward for the by-election. People deserve a choice, and I’m picking there are a few folk up there who would like to ‘send them another message’…

    Reply
  6. Julie Anne Genter has expressed and interest of standing if the Greens decide to stand a candidate. Her against Ardern would be interesting, Genter has a bit more substance in her CV and her track record in Parliament.

    Reply
    • patupaiarehe

       /  20th December 2016

      Won’t happen Pete. She is one of the Greens best, and she would just divide the left. If the Greens were to put a candidate forward, in spite of the MOU, I suspect that Bill would most likely reconsider his decision…

      Reply
      • Curious that she’s put her hand up publicly before they have made a decision.

        It could make it awkward for the Greens, unless she has their backing to see how Labour will react. There’s nothing at stake for the left so Greens might benefit from getting some mileage.

        Actually if anyone could get up and surprise Labour in Mt Albert it is Genter for the Greens. It could get very interesting.

        Reply
        • patupaiarehe

           /  20th December 2016

          Very curious…She obviously didn’t get ‘the memo’ ๐Ÿ˜‰ I can’t see the Greens doing any more there than taking votes off their supposed partner.

          Reply
          • But it would give the Greens a good chance to see how they might be able to increase their share of the vote at Labour’s expense – which is about the only party that could leak votes to them.

            Nothing to lose, either Labour will win the seat or Greens – who had a good party vote in Mt Albert – could pull of a surprise.

            And if Greens lost but did very well against Labour it could help their bargaining power when it comes to negotiating deals for the general election campaign.

            Reply
        • Blazer

           /  20th December 2016

          gee silly old me…’actually if anyone could get up and surprise Labour in Mt Albert it is Genter for the Greens. It could get very interesting.’…I was thinking that after the last election when the Natz got 14,359 PV’s to Lab’s 10,823,that ,um they were the most likely to …um…surprise!

          Reply
          • Not if you learn from history, from Mt Roskill and from the fact that incumbent governments rarely if ever win seats of opposition parties in by-elections.

            Reply
            • Blazer

               /  20th December 2016

              so you think the Greens have a better chance ,even if National stood a candidate?

            • No not if Nats stood a candidate because then almost certainly Greens wouldn’t stand a candidate to protect Labour.

              Without Nats the greens can test themselves against Labour at no risk.

            • patupaiarehe

               /  20th December 2016

              LOL, if the Greens win Mt Albert Pete, I will fly to Invercargill, buy you a beer, and eat my hat in front of you, while you enjoy your cold glass of speights ๐Ÿ˜€

            • Make it Dunedin and Emersons.

            • patupaiarehe

               /  20th December 2016

              Deal! BTW, Tauranga & Tui when I am proven correct ๐Ÿ˜‰

            • Blazer

               /  20th December 2016

              so you believe that the Greens want to both …protect Labour …and ..test Labour…..very good!

            • Greens want into Government and need Labour to get them there.

              But Greens want to be as big a part of that partnership as possible. Under MMP size=influence.

            • patupaiarehe

               /  20th December 2016

              If I had to choose between Julie-Anne & Jacinda, Blazer, I would have to vote Green. Perish the thought… ๐Ÿ˜€

    • Pete Kane

       /  20th December 2016

      I’ll tell you what, I rate Genter a ‘Bill English’ mile ahead of Ardern, and I don’t rate Genter. (For a forward thinking Labour Party someone like Debra Russell would have been a prescient choice in my view.)

      Reply
      • Deborah Russell is targeting New Lynn, but may have to fight Laila Harre for it – it would be a real shame if McCarten prevails.

        Reply
  7. patupaiarehe

     /  20th December 2016

    The decision by the Nats not to put up a candidate, really just displays their ‘third term arrogance’, IMHO.
    “Hey, we already have a one vote ‘mandate’ from the public, thanks to our willing ‘bedfellows’, so why even bother? We can lose, and nothing will change!”
    If they really are as popular as they like to think they are, why not put whoever is at the bottom of their list forward? Should be a sure thing, if you believe the polls….

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  20th December 2016

      The reality is that it is one of the strongest Labour electorate seats in the country and therefore a waste of time going for it. Your example is the equivalent of saying Helen Clark when at the peak of her power should have won the King Country electorate – national popularity has nothing to do with winning locked-in electorate seats.

      Reply
      • patupaiarehe

         /  20th December 2016

        Get a clue Pants. The party vote in that electorate is majority blue, but they kept voting for the ‘red guy’, because he was well known. Now that he is gone, it is anyones guess as to how that electorate seat will be filled.

        Reply
        • PDB

           /  20th December 2016

          Now you are being silly – it has been a Labour seat since 1946, and if Ardern (as very likely) gets the nod then it wont be changing anytime soon.

          Shearer wasn’t at all ‘well known’ when he was parachuted into the electorate for the 2009 by-election (he only returned to NZL the same year) and pissed in by around 10,000 votes over the 2nd placed National candidate Melissa Lee.

          Suggest you research a little before speaking nonsense.

          Reply
  8. Klik Bate

     /  20th December 2016

    We were discussing this in the office earlier today, when I mentioned that Jacinda Ardern was going to Mount Albert, one of the other blokes said, “Lucky Albert!”

    Reply

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