Predictions for 2017

I have one political prediction for 2017 – New Zealand will have a general election. Other than that I’m happy to see what happens. There will certainly be surprises, some of which will not be predicted by anyone.

The election result itself is predictably unpredictable. The results of coalition negotiations are also unpredictable with any accuracy, especially if an ongoing prediction that Winston Peters will hold the balance of power turns out to be correct for a change.

Political journalists from Stuff have made twenty predictions in past years, and have been not much more than half right inn the last two years, and that’s people who should be as well informed as anyone about our politics.

Stuff awards themselves 116.5/200 on their last year predictions – see Political punditry – the art of being at least half right some of the time.

Some of those were fairly easy (Goff wins mayoralty, Mt Roskill by-election), and some had good odds of being correct, like “at least one MP will announce their engagement to be married.”

And some were fortuitous due to vagueness – they predicted that one party leader would be replaced, but didn’t pick it would be John Key.

Stuff has done it again for this year – The year that might be: Our political predictions for 2017.

Some are interesting.

2. Former Labour MP Shane Jones will shy away from another term as an economic ambassador and instead signal a return to politics by throwing his hat in the ring with his old mate Winston Peters and NZ First.

That’s been widely predicted since before Jones left Labour to become an ambassador.

3. Labour’s Raymond Huo will return as an MP before the election – and be given a winnable place on the party’s list as it seeks to rectify its diversity deficit.

Labour has been embarrassed by it’s lack of ethnic diversity, and bringing Huo back has been predicted by others. There is a way back for him if Jacinda Ardern wins the Mt Albert by-election (they don’t include that in their predictions even though it looks a dead cert) – but there are two others on Labour’s list in front of Huo so it may take some ‘organising’ for Labour to deter them and allow Huo back.

8. Gareth Morgan’s The Opportunities Party (TOP) will score less than 3 per cent and fail to win any seats.

It would be a major surprise if that turns out to be incorrect.

9. The Greens will do little better – and little worse – than their 2014 result.

This is quite likely. Green support seems to have plateaued and Labour doesn’t look good enough to take some of it back.

11. Chris Finlayson, Peter Dunne and Annette King will call it a day.

Guesses, or do they know something about the intentions of these three?

Dunne must be having a hard look at whether he wants to stand again after 32 years in Parliament. I thought that comments he made just before Christmas hinted at standing again, but there may be quiet hints that National may contest Ohariu rather than leave it to Dunne so he may not contest it.

And what is Labour up to in Ohariu? Their 2014 candidate came close-ish to Dunne but she has been selected to stand in Hutt South. What does this signal?

Labour are giving up on Ohariu? Or they have a big name candidate lined up to take Dunne on? Or they have agreed to give Greens a shot at the electorate?

Dunne should indicate his intentions early in the year.

King has already indicated that she won’t stand in her Rongotai electorate again. This gives her an easy way to stand down altogether this year. Going list only is a risk given Labour’s poor polling – Andrew Little barely made it into Parliament via the list in 2014.

I have no idea what Finlayson might want to do.

12. One National and one Labour MP in electorate seats will leave within six months before the general election, under an unspoken deal that will maintain the voting balance in the House.

John Key and David Cunliffe have already indicated they are likely to do this. Clayton Cosgrove and Maurice Williamson have also said they won’t stand again. So this looks a good bet.

13. The Greens will be given a free run in some electorates, under a deal with Labour, but will still fail to win any constituency seats.

It will be interesting to see how hard Greens try in electorates this election. Metiria Turei has already said she is standing in Te Tai Tonga and despite what she has said I think she would quite like to pull that off.

Greens will stand against Labour in the Mt Roskill by-election – this is likely to be Julie Anne Genter, and it will give them an indication perhaps of what their general election chances are (albeit in a totally different situation with no National candidate to contend with).

Will James Shaw go hard out against Grant Robertson in Wellington Central (if Robertson doesn’t concede) and convert strong Green party support to electorate votes?

These are probably the only three Green MPs with any chance of coming close in an electorate.

16. Winston Peters will not be prime minister, nor be in line to be, under any deal he does to support the next Government.

If National do a PM deal with Peters they risk a slump in support next term.

How desperate are Labour and Greens to get into power? First NZ First would need to outperform Greens in the party vote. Then Peters would need to push Little into power sharing – whether he could or not, or whether he would actually want to or not, are unknowns.

19. There will be one more political bombshell in 2017 that will change the course of the election and install Andrew Little as prime minister.

Do Stuff journalists know which emails have been hacked (as claimed by Kim Dotcom) and how they are likely to affect the election?

Or is this just a punt? Any election hit job may or may not work, as we know from Dirty Politics in 2014.

20. At least two party leaders will be heading for the door by Christmas.

Does that exclude being shown the door by voters?

If National get back in with small party support that could mean Little, Peters and Turei (and less likely, Shaw). If Turei doesn’t win Te Tai Tonga – it would be a very bad look to win an electorate and then bail out. What about Peters if he wins Northland? Or Little if he wins his first electorate (eg Rongotai or Ohariu)?

If National get back in with NZ First support it seems unlikely Peters would bail out straight away, especially if he holds Northland.

If Labour+Greens can form the next government Peters may or may not want to stay. Same for Bill English, and for Peter Dunne. If Seymour holds Epsom I presume he would stay, ACT would depend on it.

I’ll make another prediction – that Winston Peters will continue to refuse to indicate who NZ First might side with if they are in a ‘kingmaker’ position after the election.

And this makes other predictions related to the election difficult.

 

Previous Post
Next Post
Leave a comment

35 Comments

  1. Ahhh our friends in the traditional Media playing Dirty Politics . Again!!

    “19. There will be one more political bombshell in 2017 that will change the course of the election and install Andrew Little as prime minister.”

    This is extremely irresponsible. If they have something – publish it and lets deal with it.

    If they don’t they are spreading falsehood/rumor. Given it would, as they say, put Little in the PM’s chair then that leads to thinking its a Labour/Greens initiated story line or they are believing KDC’s lines which didn’t work out in 2014.

    We deserve better political journalism in this country. But we ain’t getting it any time soon it seems…

    Reply
    • This got me thinking about Dotcom’s claims that hacked data may influence the election – if it is for the public good that information be made known then it should happen now, and not be used to try to manipulate democracy, which is against the public good.

      Reply
      • Exactly Pete – but if we have another election attempted to be manipulated via Hacked data I think that will go very wrong for the Left.

        It will motivate the National Party vote to get out on the day. And it will be very easy to run a line that the Left are corrupt and desperate relying on illegally obtained data to try to win.

        The left and the Media have tried this a few times now:

        >Election 2014 and the Slater hack with the orchestrated and planned dirty politics/vote positive meme
        >Mossack Fonseca Panama Papers

        Common factor in both? Nicky Hagar as the front man allowing the dirty operatives to wander in the shadows unnamed. And also a fireworks side show called Ben to distracted from the prime movers as well…

        Cue Flicker and the “where is Jason Ede” line. He works at a private Company Flicker – google him and you will see…

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  2nd January 2017

          Dave I say ,Dave….everyone should applaud exposes like these….

          ‘Election 2014 and the Slater hack with the orchestrated and planned dirty politics/vote positive meme
          >Mossack Fonseca Panama Papers’….everyone.

          Reply
  2. Gezza

     /  2nd January 2017

    Very interesting, sort of, but, we’ll see.

    Reply
  3. Klik Bate

     /  2nd January 2017

    My niece in the US has her own prediction for 2017…..

    Reply
  4. Some of my predictions –

    – Written Constitution discussions will flare up radically [and racially] with the introduction of questions about the place of Te Tiriti o Waitangi in our future constitutionality and governance. Whether a Constitution becomes a political football or election issue remains to be seen. It seems unlikely before big ‘conferences’ planned for 2021, although people might begin to ask why so much time, effort and money has been spent on constitutional ‘advisory panels’ since around 2010 …? [Advisory Panel Reports being John Key’s lasting legacy to the nation after the Flag Debacle]

    – The success or otherwise of Gareth Morgan’s TOP will depend on two things: 1) The maintenance of status-quo economics, e.g. no major fluctuations or another crash before the election – although the obvious symptoms of zilch wage growth, poverty, growing inequality and skyrocketing house prices will remain contentious issues – and 2) How well Morgan and cohorts can sell alternatives, which I believe for many people are looking more-and-more viable, eg http://neweconomics.net.nz/index.php/863-2/ and basic income eg http://basicincome.org/topic/new-zealand/ , although Morgan has postponed UBI to “phase two” according to BINZ.

    – All political parties [with the notable exception of ACT] will avoid two very important 50/50 issues; failing to commit due to lack of guaranteed votes, thus failing voters: End of Life Choice and Cannabis Law Reform; hence consigning yet another triannuary of mostly young people and the terminally ill, mostly elders, to be subject to laws which are in themselves ‘criminal’ …

    Most of the rest is just “business as usual”, largely “same old same old”, played in the quagmire of dirty politics. Hacks and muck-raking are fully anticipated …

    Reply
  5. Alan Wilkinson

     /  2nd January 2017

    I predict the media will announce the usual series of political bombshells and the public will yawn and ignore them as usual.

    Reply
  6. If Labour wins, in whatever combination, then National will lose all its MP’s over 50 years of age in a mass exodus. English’s lack of response to the questions being asked about NZ’s position on Israel could be the catalyst for a change in leadership there
    Given the Wikileaks release of anti-Democrat emails during the US elections, and the already displayed link between Dotcom and Wikileaks principals, I would not be surprised to see another “Dirty Tricks” by MSM and Progressive socialists being a feature of the lead up to the election. The timing of this would be about Queens Birthday weekend when they trash Key’s knighthood. Ruapehu will erupt in August 2017.

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  2nd January 2017

      when was Key knighted?Do you know something ..we don’t?As for dirty tricks,National wrote the handbook…surely you can acknowledge that..!

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  2nd January 2017

        I wouldn’t think so, Bj. Who is questioning it? Barely registering with most people imo. How does our support for this resolution depart from our usual postion on UN resolutions and issues relating to Israel, the occupation, settlements, and a 2-state solution?

        https://yournz.org/2017/01/01/open-forum-sunday-107/#comment-152932

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  2nd January 2017

          Sorry, that comment is in relation to your:

          “English’s lack of response to the questions being asked about NZ’s position on Israel could be the catalyst for a change in leadership there.”

          Reply
      • It was a prediction, wait your turn! Of course National wrote the handbook of Dirty Tricks according to our totally unbiased academic leaders in sociology and the law, and totally supported by the Greens and Labour. Who am I to doubt the accuracy and efficacy of your conjecture!

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  2nd January 2017

          just ask the ..attorney general if you want an impartial ..view!…joke of the …YEAR!

          Reply
    • Conspiratoor

       /  2nd January 2017

      Mediocrity has never been a barrier to a knighthood Colonel. Key’s gong is safe

      Reply
  7. Gezza, my sources tell me that a number of elected sitting MPs have been asked to explain the change in approach to the Israel question. It is the unseen pressure that I am talking about. Some of the public statements are from important people in the National Party support group. There are real Trade considerations at stake here, and Trump does not forgive easily. We did not need to take the prime sponsorship role and I see no long term benefit for NZ’s prosperity in the middle term. That is why I recall the movie “The Mouse that Roared”. Our natural “protectors” are the US, the UK, Canada and Australia. The Australians have been quick to repudiate our position, the same with Trump, the UK and Canada have stayed stum. Is this another indication of a long term trend towards Asia and away from the Pacific? China and Fiji?

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  2nd January 2017

      ‘protectors’ from…who?Who the fuck does Netanyahoo think he is?Canada has a govt that believes in humanity.Fuck the private bankers and their agendas.

      Reply
      • Protect us from any country that has any attack aircraft at all. But apart from no Defence capability, the real protection we need is for the trade routes and access to trade destinations. If Trump goes ahead and puts the US first, where do we stand? If he puts out the word that we are not paying our dues, forget the good times we have enjoyed under National!

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  2nd January 2017

          what rot,NO country in the world is better suited to withstand any isolationist policies or sanctions than NZ.’Goodtimes under National…’joke time,selling our country,our assets,creating huge debts for future generations to pay off,..what an illusion…what a tragedy…!

          Reply
          • Indeed, no country in the world is better suited to initiate advantageous, opportune, reasonable, appropriately muted Kiwi-beneficial isolationist policies than Aotearoa NZ …

            Reply
          • Blazer, I think you exaggerate a bit too much. The debt is non-Governmental in nature and the level of Government debt is up there with the best of the world and falling.

            Reply
            • Blazer

               /  2nd January 2017

              ‘debt is up there with the best of the world and falling’..are you serious,….?Everyone is stupid,but as far as stupidity goes ..we are on the lower scale’!

    • Gezza

       /  2nd January 2017

      Yes but Oz faces a more imminent & substantial potential threat from a nearby neighbour, probably not helped by their following the US around with their noses endlessly stuck up their rear end, and being into them for so much military materiel. I think its good for us to have, and stick to some principles, on the Israel/Palestine issue. We can’t afford the pricey defence gear from the States. If Trump decides to punish us trade-wise, which remains to be seen, I expect we could pursue other options.

      Reply
      • Or maybe punch above our weight and publicize Trump’s “trade-wise” punishment of us, which surely won’t reflect well on him? [and probably won’t matter to him either!]

        Principles beyond trade!? Tut tut Gezza … You should know better.

        Quite what any of this trade malarchy has got to do with Israel and Palestine has rather escaped my extraordinary intellect …

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  2nd January 2017

          That’s why it pays to be intellectually sub-par like me. I see the potential horrors everywhere … 😃

          Reply
      • Gezza, the Australian relationship with Indonesia has been a bit testy from time to time, and we Kiwis have in every case been with them (Konfrontasi and East Timor). The Indonesian Armed Forces have received more military aid from the US than from Australia and NZ combined. Look at Irian Jaya (West Papua) stolen from the indigenous Papuan people by Soeharto and Benny Moerdani’s occupation that had US agreement. Indonesia’s Armed Forces are large and capable, but are needed full time to protect Nusantara (Ibu Pertiwi) from internal threats caused by Islamic extremists the Darul Islamic forces of Java etc. Australia, conveniently justifies the size and nature of their Armed Forces by the existence of the “threat” from Indonesia. There is no sensible strategic reason for such a stance.
        I understand the benefits of us not spending large amounts on Defence at present. The rewards are great for NZ and that is why so many are jealous of our quality of life. But if the strategic picture changes , what then? What other options? Swiss Neutrality? Surrender? Reversion to guerilla war?

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  2nd January 2017

          Australia these days is really just another state of..America…Ausmerica,since they sidelined Whitlam.Fraser woke up too late that he and Australia had been …’played’.

          Reply
        • Gezza

           /  2nd January 2017

          Sorry, see my reply at the margin below Bj.

          Reply
  8. Gezza

     /  2nd January 2017

    If the strategic picture changes we’ll ramp up the arse-crawling, offer our young men and women up for cannon fodder, offer bases wherever it suits the Western Alliance, request military equipment & crash training in missiles & fighter/attack aircraft, & sell our strategic position as vital & needing immediate bolstering.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  2nd January 2017

      Next to Antarctica NZ is probably the last place on earth likely to be attacked externally. If that were to happen it would follow much greater disasters elsewhere. NZ should focus on stopping those happening.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  2nd January 2017

        Agreed. Every stroppy nation should be left in no doubt that if they don’t behave we will immediately send at least two plane-loads of the finest troops the world has ever seen to their location, flying under their radar, with one or two stopovers for repairs, and when we get, there tie all their leaders up with No 8 wire & make them watch The Bachelor until they promise to stop whatever bad shit they’ve been up to & behave in future.

        Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s