2016 warmest on record in NZ

NIWA has released it’s Annual Climate Summary 2016  which shows that the New Zealand climate in 2016 was the warmest on record.

Annual temperatures were above average (0.51°C to 1.20°C above the annual average) throughout the country, with very few locations observing near average temperatures (within 0.5°C of the annual average) or lower.  The year 2016 was the warmest on record for New Zealand, based on NIWA’s seven-station series which begins in 1909.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-positive conditions were present at the beginning of the year, although the strong El Niño event weakened rapidly from February, and ENSO-neutral conditions prevailed by May.

Temperatures

Temperature-wise, 2016 as a whole was above average (0.51°C to 1.20°C above the annual average) throughout the country.

These temperature anomalies were especially high in Northland, Auckland, Bay of Plenty, Hawke’s Bay, Whanganui, Manawatu, Kapiti Coast, Wellington, West Coast, Otago and Southland.

Near average temperatures (within 0.5°C of the annual average) were observed in only a few locations including parts of Tasman and south Otago, Timaru and Oamaru.

No locations observed below average temperatures (0.51°C to 1.20°C below the annual average).

The first seven months of the year from January to July were remarkably warm, with the nation-wide average temperature higher than average for each month, respectively.

The three warmest months in 2016 in terms of the seven-station temperature series were February (2.2°C above average), May (2.1°C above average) and June (1.6°C above average).  Notably, these months were New Zealand’s warmest May, second-warmest February and third-warmest June on record.

August (0.5°C below average) and December (0.3°C below average) were the only two months in 2016 when New Zealand’s nation-wide average temperature was cooler than average.

The nation-wide average temperature for 2016 was 13.4°C (0.8°C above the 1981–2010 annual average), using NIWA’s seven-station temperature series which begins in 1909.  2016 was the warmest year since 1909, based on this seven-station series, and surpassed New Zealand’s previous warmest year on record which occurred in 1998.

This shows that most of the record warmth was February to June.

nz2016monthlytemperatures

Download the 2016 New Zealand Annual Climate Summary [PDF 1.66MB]

Leave a comment

30 Comments

  1. Alan Wilkinson

     /  9th January 2017

    Interesting to look at NIWA’s “7 location” series chart. It shows almost no warming 1960-2010. Strange how they never seemed to notice that:

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  9th January 2017

      From around 1970 the average change looks to be a straight line from the ‘0’……..

      Reply
      • PDB

         /  9th January 2017

        Just reaffirming your comment……

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  9th January 2017

          Almost the same from 1950.

          Reply
          • PDB

             /  9th January 2017

            Considering NIWA has ‘adjusted data’ you can only imagine what the graph really looks like.

            Reply
          • PDB

             /  9th January 2017

            A quick look at NIWA’s own ‘adjusted’ data shows average temperate between 1950-2009 was 12.51 & between 1970-2009 was 12.61. Essentially the 2000’s where exactly the same temperatures as those experienced in the 1980’s.

            Average by decade;

            *1950’s – 12.37
            *1960’s – 12.28
            *1970’s – 12.59
            *1980’s – 12.66
            *1990’s – 12.50
            *2000’s – 12.69

            Margin of error stuff……

            Reply
  2. PDB

     /  9th January 2017

    So El Niño pushed temperatures up really high at the beginning of 2016 skewering the average yearly temperature then once that passed temperatures went back to normal and later during December below normal. Funny that.

    From NIWA: Forecasting the impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño on New Zealand

    This year we are experiencing a very strong El Niño phase. NIWA climate scientists have used past strong strong El Niño phases to approximate what may happen during the summer of 2015/16.

    In the El Niño events of 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1997/98, severe drought occurred in some eastern parts of the country.

    Reply
  3. Conspiratoor

     /  9th January 2017

    Meanwhile in the real world Europe freezes in near record lows, arctic snows fall as far south as nice and the fountains freeze in Rome for the first time. If this is global warming you can shove it up your jacksy

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  9th January 2017

      Aw come on c. 🙂 Scenarios for global warming include increased precipitation & extremes of weather. I’ve still got an open mind on AGW.

      Reply
      • Conspiratoor

         /  9th January 2017

        “increased extremes of weather”. Have you got a definition G? Go on have a crack

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  9th January 2017

          I know this is dated 2011, but as the science is disputed between experts, I am watching over longer time frames.

          http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/global-warming-rain-snow-tornadoes.html

          Reply
          • Conspiratoor

             /  9th January 2017

            Sorry G, you lost me when I saw who authored it – Union of Concerned Scientists. I kid you not, you couldn’t make this stuff up.
            Do you want to hear a beautiful spanish melody along the lines of less is more?

            Reply
          • Gezza

             /  9th January 2017

            Fear enuff. I know you’re not one to complain.
            Yup, to the Spanish melody. Not much music been on offer here today. Mainly violins.

            Reply
            • Conspiratoor

               /  9th January 2017

              Yes I was tempted to offer up Iggy Pop’s debut solo album ‘The Idiot’ in honour of the ritual frothing from the resident wackos earlier. Nice attempt at calming by the way

            • Gezza

               /  9th January 2017

              Had a mate called Zen. He’s in prison now. Lost the plot after his garden was disrupted by unruly foreigners.

  4. PDB

     /  9th January 2017

    From their site: 2013 was a very warm year for New Zealand, with annual mean temperatures above average or near average across the entire country. The nation-wide average temperature for 2013 was 13.4°C (0.8°C above the 1971–2000 annual average), using NIWA’s seven-station temperature series which begins in 1909[1]. According to this seven-station series, 2013 was the third-warmest year on record.

    Compared to 2016: The nation-wide average temperature for 2016 was 13.4°C (0.8°C above the 1981–2010 annual average), using NIWA’s seven-station temperature series which begins in 1909. 2016 was the warmest year since 1909, based on this seven-station series, and surpassed New Zealand’s previous warmest year on record which occurred in 1998.

    Reply
    • Maggy Wassilieff

       /  9th January 2017

      Yep, definitely something peculiar going on with the information on the NIWA site about their 7 site series.

      If you check out the Annual Climate summary for 2010, you learn that the av. temp is 12.6 (same as the 1981-2010 ann av); and that av temp for 1998 was 13.5 deg C, and for 1999 13.4 deg C.

      But check out the graph presented by NIWA in their presentation today and the anomaly for 1998 is no longer 0.9deg C…. it has dropped down to about 0.81-0.82.
      https://www.niwa.co.nz/

      Honestly, was 2016 really warmer than 1998?

      Reply
      • PDB

         /  10th January 2017

        No it wasn’t, then on top of that both years were affected by El Niño so for them to pronounce that 2016 temperatures are proof of man-made global warming is a joke.

        “Both 1998 and 2016 are anomalies, outliers, and in both cases we have an easily identifiable cause for that anomaly: a powerful El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event”

        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11777867

        Also check out what the NZ temperature graph posted by Alan looks like without NIWA downgrading earlier data – pretty much zero change over the past 150 years.

        “The shocking truth is that the oldest readings have been cranked way down and later readings artificially lifted to give a false impression of warming, as documented below. There is nothing in the station histories to warrant these adjustments and to date Dr Salinger and NIWA have not revealed why they did this.

        One station, Hokitika, had its early temperatures reduced by a huge 1.3°C, creating strong warming from a mild cooling, yet there’s no apparent reason for it.

        We have discovered that the warming in New Zealand over the past 156 years was indeed man-made, but it had nothing to do with emissions of CO2—it was created by man-made adjustments of the temperature. It’s a disgrace”

        http://www.climatescience.org.nz/images/PDFs/global_warming_nz2.pdf

        Reply
    • PDB

       /  10th January 2017

      Somebody from Whaleoil has been reading this post………http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2017/01/niwa-2016-climate-warmest-year-ever/

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  10th January 2017

        Call the …Police.

        Reply
      • “when the reality is that things are pretty much stable.”

        That’s pretty much a made up claim.

        Why would NIWA and
        https://yournz.org/2017/01/09/world-temperature-patterns/
        and
        https://yournz.org/2017/01/06/2016-confirmed-as-warmest-on-record/
        all come to similar conclusions?

        Reply
        • PDB

           /  10th January 2017

          True temperature data (that which is not changed by NIWA) show very little change in temperature in New Zealand for the past 150 years.

          Reply
          • PDB

             /  11th January 2017

            Same data manipulation issue in Australia;

            “The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, however, keeps reporting catastrophic warming. This is achieved in part by making many adjustments to the historical data so the past appears cooler than it actually was”.

            http://jennifermarohasy.com/temperatures/

            “The temperature record for the city of Darwin in northern Australia is homogenized before incorporated into national and global datasets used to calculate global warming trends. In particular, all temperatures recorded at the Darwin post office before 1937 are dropped by a significant 1.12 degree Celsius. This has the effect of changing what is an overall cooling trend at Darwin, into dramatic global warming for the official record.
            According to the Bureau, the drop of 1.12 degree Celsius is necessary to correct for shading from trees that occurred from 1937. This claim in the official catalogue is absurd. There was hardly a tree left standing after the cyclone that hit Darwin on 10th March 1937.

            The homogenization of Darwin’s temperature is just another example of climate scientists making-up a temperature trend to create the perception of a coming environmental apocalypse”.

            http://jennifermarohasy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Marohasy-LibDemNationalConvention-Darwin-Feb2016-VERSIONF.pdf

            Reply
            • Blazer

               /  11th January 2017

              Are you a Climate change…DENIER?You despicable…human being.

            • PDB

               /  11th January 2017

              Climate change is real, ‘man-made climate change’ is not proven as most want us to believe – unless you count the changing of historic temperature data downwards as ‘man-made climate change’.

  5. SPC

     /  10th January 2017

    The average for 1961-1990 was 12.5 and the temperature in 1998 was .9 above that. At 13.4

    Similar temperatures of 13.4 for 2013 and again 2016. With 2013 just below the 1998 figure and 2016 just above the 1998 figure and thus the hottest year since records began.

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  10th January 2017

      You’ve missed one year out somewhere as in 2013 the 2013 temperature was supposedly the third highest at the time according to NIWA (see above).

      Also why does NIWA base the 2013 data on the 1971–2000 annual average, whilst 2016 is based on the 1981–2010 annual average? (see above).

      Looking at the data NIWA hasn’t ‘adjusted’ we can clearly see in 1916 or so the year was a full 1°C over the average.

      Again the debate is rather pointless when we know the ‘record’ temperature (like 1998) was caused by El Niño not CO2.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  10th January 2017

        You are a climate change denier….El Ninio 😷

        Reply
      • SPC

         /  10th January 2017

        They update the average every decade or so. 1961-1990, then 1971-2000, then 1981-2010.

        Interesting 2013 was similar with no El Nino.

        And globally, warmest 2014, then again 2015 and then again 2016.

        Reply

Leave a Reply to PDB Cancel reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s