First Colmar Brunton poll of 2017

The major parties will be happy-ish with the first  News Colmar Brunton poll of the year, especially NZ First, but Labour have a way to go to where they need to be.

  • National 46% (down from 50 in November 2016)
  • Labour 30% (up from 28)
  • Greens 11% (no change)
  • NZ First 11% (up from 10)
  • Maori Party 1% (no change)
  • ACT Party 1% (up  from 0)
  • Mana Party 1% (up from 0)

Labour and Greens combined are 41% so would need NZ First support to form a government.

Labour are trending upwards slowly again – results since October 2015:

  • 31, 32, 28, 29, 26, 28, 30

Greens may be a bit concerned as they often do worse in elections than they poll – results since October 2015:

  • 12, 8, 10, 12, 13, 11, 11

They are not making any gains since James Shaw took over co-leadership from Russel Norman and the Memorandum of Understanding with Labour hasn’t had any significant poll benefit.

National results since October 2015:

  • 47, 47, 50, 48, 48, 50, 46

That’s remarkable considering they are nearing the end of their third term and John Key has stepped down from leading them.

National are within  margin of error to forming a similar arrangement they have now, depending on whether ACT and Peter Dunne survive. They will be reasonably happy with this result, the first Colmar Brunton poll with English as Prime Minister.

With rounding it’s hard to take much from the minor party movements.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 31% (John Key was 36 in November)
  • Winston Peters 8% (no change)
  • Andrew Little 7% (down from 8)
  • Jacinda Ardern 4% (up from 1)

English should be pleased enough with this. Peters will be very pleased to be ahead of Little, who should be worried about his continued lack of appeal.

Ardern remains adamant she doesn’t want to be Prime Minister.

1 News:  Labour and Greens close gap on National following John Key’s departure

The poll of just over 1000 eligible voters was taken between February 11 and 15. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.

 

13 Comments

  1. Labour and Green loyalists at The Standard seem to think this is a good result for Labour and a bad result for Bill English.

    https://thestandard.org.nz/colmar-brunton-poll-3/

    • PDB

       /  February 20, 2017

      I find it interesting that a few commentators are dissing Key because he is now only 2% in the preferred PM ratings?

      If anything it shows the strength in National that the voters are comfortable enough in the main to switch over to English – it would have been more of a problem if a new leader was chosen and the voters still pined for Key.

      Of more concern for the far left bloc is that they are claiming 41% of the Nationwide vote but can only muster up a leader with 7% of the vote.

      • I prefer a Prime Minister who wants to be Prime Minister – unlike Key (now) and Ardern.

        • Brown

           /  February 20, 2017

          I’m the opposite. I hate the idea of people wanting to be in charge for the sake of being in charge being in charge – they are so often incompetent. Little would, in my view, be a disaster on the global stage. A reluctant leader is far safer.

        • PDB

           /  February 20, 2017

          Ardern knows her limitations and that she isn’t up to the top job, a pity the people that are pushing her barrow can’t see the same.

          • Blazer

             /  February 20, 2017

            how the hell people rate Bennett is beyond me,such a fake ,such a flake and so insincere .

            • PDB

               /  February 20, 2017

              Maybe so……….however I’d rate her ability to be above Ardern any day of the year.

  2. PDB

     /  February 20, 2017

    All margin of error stuff but the reality remains that NZL First hold the keys to govt come election day – something that seems to escape Labour/Greens as they continue to pretend they are the govt in waiting.

  3. lurcher1948

     /  February 20, 2017

    Caution caution Fake news fake news,…has anyone here ever been approached by a polling company???no one i know…take results with a grain of salt

    • PDB

       /  February 20, 2017

      It’s not the one-off poll that is important but the overall trend which shows us very little headway for Labour/Greens since their ‘big’ announcement, NZL First holding the balance of power, and National holding their support.

  4. High Flying Duck

     /  February 20, 2017

    Probably something in this poll for everyone, but definitely not enough to signal a trend. National were too high in the last poll so this is a correction for now. The next poll will give a far better indication of the lay of the land going into campaign mode.
    The budget is not far away and will have an impact on the numbers one way or another.

  5. Ray

     /  February 20, 2017

    I have been polled multiple times, I might add my answers very rarely reflect my true intention when I do get to the polling station.