The major parties will be happy-ish with the first News Colmar Brunton poll of the year, especially NZ First, but Labour have a way to go to where they need to be.
- National 46% (down from 50 in November 2016)
- Labour 30% (up from 28)
- Greens 11% (no change)
- NZ First 11% (up from 10)
- Maori Party 1% (no change)
- ACT Party 1% (up from 0)
- Mana Party 1% (up from 0)
Labour and Greens combined are 41% so would need NZ First support to form a government.
Labour are trending upwards slowly again – results since October 2015:
- 31, 32, 28, 29, 26, 28, 30
Greens may be a bit concerned as they often do worse in elections than they poll – results since October 2015:
- 12, 8, 10, 12, 13, 11, 11
They are not making any gains since James Shaw took over co-leadership from Russel Norman and the Memorandum of Understanding with Labour hasn’t had any significant poll benefit.
National results since October 2015:
- 47, 47, 50, 48, 48, 50, 46
That’s remarkable considering they are nearing the end of their third term and John Key has stepped down from leading them.
National are within margin of error to forming a similar arrangement they have now, depending on whether ACT and Peter Dunne survive. They will be reasonably happy with this result, the first Colmar Brunton poll with English as Prime Minister.
With rounding it’s hard to take much from the minor party movements.
Preferred Prime Minister:
- Bill English 31% (John Key was 36 in November)
- Winston Peters 8% (no change)
- Andrew Little 7% (down from 8)
- Jacinda Ardern 4% (up from 1)
English should be pleased enough with this. Peters will be very pleased to be ahead of Little, who should be worried about his continued lack of appeal.
Ardern remains adamant she doesn’t want to be Prime Minister.
The poll of just over 1000 eligible voters was taken between February 11 and 15. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.