Whale Oil slump

Whale Oil has been trying to trash Bill English since he became Prime Minister and they have been trying to trash National since New Zealand along with all other countries in the security voted in December to censure Israel, except the US who abstained.

This morning ‘Cameron Slater’ tries to connect the poll result to their anti-English and anti-National agenda: First poll of year sees Nats slump 4 points, thanks Murray

National has slumped 4 points int he latest 1News/Colmar Brunton poll.

Winston Peters is in the box seat, but Bill English must be regretting letting Murray McCully run rogue at the UN Security Council. This is the cost.

National has started the slide to a number starting with 3.

Bill English better get well acquainted with Winston Peters…and he better sort out Murray McCully or this drop will be just the start.

That’s nonsensical analysis, it’s just trying to justify WO’s doom and gloom predictions with what is actually a fairly consistent poll result. National results since October 2015: 47, 47, 50, 48, 48, 50, 46 so 46% is nothing like a slump.

In fact National have been polling consistently within a fairly narrow band since 2012 with low points 4-5 years ago.

Slater is demonstrating again that he uses Whale Oil for political activism rather than as credible media alternative.

Notably Slater’s slant is largely unsupported in comments so far.

Wilson: Some in the media were saying the first poll will have a 3 in front of it. So 46% is great.

Curly1952: I believe the drop to 46% for National was to be expected as JK was the glue to the party.

As far as the McCully factor goes I would suggest that large swathes of the electorate won’t even consider the UN resolution as part of the political barometer in NZ.

Most of the electorate are unlikely to be aware of the UN vote, or won’t care about it.

Omlete:I think the broad electorate have enough native smarts to not want the wreckers/ haters and unionist thugs on the treasury benches. It will be a National led government.

Ross:On what evidence exactly do you blame Murray?

Korerorero: I don’t thinks it’s that bad. National was on 50% in the last colmar poll.
So this is probably a correction to be in line with the other polls which had Nats around 46%. I think you’ll see nats stay around this number (or possible rise again) after their budget surprise that will leave labour shell shocked and the voters happy.

The only one supporting Slater’s agenda was ‘Positan’:

It’s not a correction. Within my many circles there was utter disbelief at the Christmas Eve announcement of NZ’s position on Res:2334 – and then anger bordering on outrage at English’s failure to front during the holidays and explain. The anger grew with the continued failure of any senior Nat to front – especially, with the empty silly letters issued by pressured Nat MPs.

Next, there were the circulating stories as to how English & Co had believed the whole matter would be blown over by the end of the holidays – the reason for the deafening silence – which has wrought the real damage of “my party vote will go elsewhere,” and “sorry, no extra donation this year.”

If National’s members are saying those sorts of things out loud now – that’s why the 46% figure has happened. English has completely misread his party’s membership’s feelings and he’s blown it. I think National’s poll figures could get very much worse.

That sounds very similar to some of the anti-National posts over the last two months.

Of course National’s poll figures could get worse, but there is no discernible effect on them from the UN vote against Israel, and this poll result is only being called a slump by Slater and some desperadoes at The Standard.

The only slump shown here is in Whale Oil credibility as a political analyst.

Leave a comment

11 Comments

  1. The 4% drop may indicate the size of the disaffection some National voters have with the anti-Israel stance taken by National that is seen as unbalanced by some National voters. If it is only 4%, it is not yet decisive, and McCully is not standing anyway.

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  20th February 2017

      Nonsense – the ‘anti-Israel’ stance (as you call it) is the same stance as the other political parties in this election so hardly something to bang National over the head with. That is such a minor issue that only Slater and a few other sycophants seem to be going on about it. Ironic because any other time Slater wouldn’t give a 4% shift either way in a one-off poll a second look.

      The small drop in National’s support is more likely due to margin of error, Key leaving or the polls readjusting from a very high 50% last time.

      Reply
      • Perhaps you are correct in your last sentence PDB. I am aware of a number of very strong letters sent to English about the UN Resolution, not just the Whaleoil published ones, so to label my suggestion as “nonsense” is a bit rich.

        Reply
        • Anonymous Coward

           /  20th February 2017

          All due respect, but more than half of what you say is nonsense. You think pizzagate is real FFS.

          Reply
        • Kimbo

           /  20th February 2017

          An 8% drop-off in support over a foreign affairs policy as complex as the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?! Doesn’t happen in NZ. Even supposed foreign affairs issues such as anti-apartheid and anti-nuclear in the 1980s were divisive because of their domestic impact. Most Kiwis are sensible enough to realise everything said by protagonists in the Middle East is propaganda. Only zealots at the far ends of the spectrum, including those energised by Whale Oil, care enough to switch political allegiances.

          Reply
          • PDB

             /  20th February 2017

            I think most New Zealanders are intelligent enough to see that one can be ‘pro-Israel’ but still be ‘anti-settlements’. Slater’s view that you have to be one or the other is bordering on ridiculous (even for him). Then he uses that issue to attack Bill English which is his real agenda.

            Reply
            • Kimbo

               /  20th February 2017

              Considering there are Israelis themselves who take that same position on the settlements, perhaps Slater is better to describe himself as the the embedded Likud journalist in NZ 😉

  2. The only slump shown here is in Whale Oil credibility as a political analyst.

    Yup, can’t disagree with that. He’s embrassing himself. Still sulking because the Nats didn’t see his girl Crusher as the second coming, he’s making an idiot of himself

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  20th February 2017

      It has become somewhat of a whinge fest over there hasn’t it? Between the whinging and the ‘filler’ there isn’t much happening there nowadays. Used to hold my nose and skim the site most days for anything of relevance but don’t bother anymore.

      Reply
      • Yes, I would literally only go there a couple of times a month as it’s just all too childish and lacking in critical thinking.

        Reply
  3. Blazer

     /  20th February 2017

    Whale Oil ….sump….indeed.

    Reply

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