‘Poll of polls’ average out poll results but with the small number of polls in New Zealand they can fluctuate nearly as much as the two polls being done, Colmar Brunton and Roy Morgan. CB is polling every three months, RM monthly.
RNZ’s latest Poll of Polls up to mid-February gave Labour an average of 28.5% through January and the first half of February, with just seven months to run until the election. This was 2 points up on its late-2016 average of 26.4%.
But it is well below its 32.5% average at this time in the 2014 election year, from which it dropped to 25.1% in the election.
Any rise will be welcomed by Labour (and Greens) but Labour are still in poor shape…
The Greens latest average is 11.5%. That gives a combined Labour and Greens score of 40%.
…and Greens appear to have hit a support ceiling.
Set that against National’s latest average of 46.7%, close to where it was in November before a 2-point boost after the smooth changeover in December from John Key to Bill English – and very close to its 2014 election score.
The switch to English has had a negligible effect on polls so far.
The trends give an overall picture.
It’s still seven months until the election in September and a lot can and no doubt will happen.
Roy Morgan should be due to release their February poll which will add a bit more to the poll picture.