Roy Morgan February poll

The February Roy Morgan poll is unusually stable (for them) compared to January with just a few minor adjustments across the board.

  • National 48% (up from 46)
  • Labour 26% (down from 27)
  • Greens 13% (up from 12.5)
  • NZ First 8%  (down from 9)
  • Maori Party 2% (no change)
  • ACT Party 1% (up from o.5)
  • United Future 0% (down from 0.5)
  • Conservative Party 0% (down from 0.5)
  • Internet Party 0% (no change)
  • Independent/Other 2% (no change)

Labour + Greens are 39% compared to National’s 48%.

National is polling at nearly double Labour’s level of support.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 852 electors between January 30 – February 12, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.

That polling period is well before the Mt Albert by-election.

roymorgan2017feb

In addition the New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 140pts in February with 63.5% (up 0.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23.5% (up 0.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

National and Bill English should be be fairly happy with this result.

Labour may think the Mt Albert by-election will make the difference but there’s little reason to think it will affect support much.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7149-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-february-2017-201702271519

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33 Comments

  1. David

     /  February 27, 2017

    Remember all the grinning and excitement from Labour when Key quit, still being under 30% should see the end of Little but given the announcements of new MPs who all seem to be retired unionists he is going to become really really secure.
    Maybe Little is aiming for being the Greens and in permanent opposition which appears to suit arguably the worlds laziest opposition politicians.

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  February 27, 2017

      Dead right, David. When, if ever, did Labour last have a sensible and original idea? Seymour alone has more in a month than the lot of them can manage in years.

    • The poor left have nothing when there’s no DonKey, ShonKey and his interesting kids to malign. There’s only that beige Mr English who has been hiding a most competent light under a bushel. They’ll be digging though, as it’s the way they roll. I mean with all those kids there has to be a DIC, some teenage shoplifting, or a show off instagram account somewhere.

  2. patupaiarehe

     /  February 27, 2017

    • PDB

       /  February 27, 2017

      That MOU between Labour and the Greens was a ‘game-changer’………

      • patupaiarehe

         /  February 27, 2017

        A public admission of failure, will always be a ‘game changer’, Pants…

        • PDB

           /  February 27, 2017

          If Labour doesn’t start upping its game then watch it start to again bleed support to NZL First closer to the election……..

      • Game changer in as much as it meant they’d feel better adding the others votes to their own figures which are well below par. Sigh. It’s a clusterwhatsit for sure.

  3. Blazer

     /  February 27, 2017

    terrible for Labour…its so obvious what they need to do,yet they are all over the place with nothing that resonates.Shocking strategies.

    • Gezza

       /  February 27, 2017

      What do they need to do? It’s too late for a leadership change & nobody credible is likely to pull it off.

      • MaureenW

         /  February 27, 2017

        It’s never too late for a leadership change in Labour, in fact they’re probably overdue. How long has little been there now?

      • patupaiarehe

         /  February 27, 2017

        IMHO they need to get back to their ‘roots’ G. Get back to representing the working classes, as well as the LGBTS community. Realize that skilled tradies have no need for unions anymore, and stop letting the unions have the final say. Even though the unions got him there, Andy is leadership material. He just needs to start speaking his mind, rather than saying what he is told to….

        • MaureenW

           /  February 27, 2017

          He’s a goner if he speaks someone else’s mind – no leader at all.

        • Gezza

           /  February 27, 2017

          The problems I think Andy has with what you’re suggesting there Patu are:
          1 there is no ‘working class’ any more
          2 he is not leadership material.

          • patupaiarehe

             /  February 27, 2017

            there is no ‘working class’ any more

            Oh really? Please elaborate G

            • I kind of agree with G actually patu … (and I simplify for effect) …

              The employment sector is now divided by poles apart groupings such as – CEO-Upper Management, Old Professions [Lawyer, Doctor], New Professions [e.g. IT], other professionals [nurses, teachers], upper-middle management [including central and local government], owner-employers and many tradies … both self-employed and contract … Exceedingly, very or reasonably well paid respectively on one hand … The Contractocracy …

              GROWING INEQUALITY … with …

              – Low-paid, under-employed and casualized labourers, trade labour and especially ‘service workers’ on the other … The Precariat …

          • Gezza

             /  February 27, 2017

            @ patu
            There used to be basically two classes:
            1. The employees (the working class)
            2. The employers (the bosses, the owners, maybe the foreman.

            Independent contractors (& maybe even middle classes) hardly existed in the social & political & economic spectrum when the concept of the working class was generally held to be employess working in a lifetime occupation for a boss or business owner, eg a factory.

            Thing no longer work like that – for possibly even now the majority of people, certainly a big chunk of the working population.

            While there are still many people employed in factories, others these dsys market themselves & their infividual skills more, they envisage working for several employers, they choose to contract themselves as independent operators, etc. They are workers, obviously, but they don’t see themselves as ‘working class’.

            If Little pitches to the working class he is out of date & his demographic is too small, imo.

            • Conspiratoor

               /  February 27, 2017

              I think you are right G. There is no longer a proletariat or massed collective outside the pubic service, at least in the sense that Andy would remember

            • patupaiarehe

               /  February 27, 2017

              ‘Independent contractors’? Such as the one who delivers your pizza? Or the guys who work in the factory, who get a days notice, when the work ‘tapers off’…

            • Gezza

               /  February 27, 2017

              Plumbers, electricians, builders, tv antenna men, Sky TV installers, Telco technicians, Knowledge workers, IT workers & specialists, Government advisory & review contractors, lino layers, curtain manufacturers & even hangers, carpet layers – lawn mowers & gardeners – there’s almost no limit to what jobs people with skills & drive & confidence can do – they don’t see themselves as working class – they see themselves as middle class or aspiring middle class, imo. They like being their own boss.

              These are the people Andy is not appealing to, in my opinion, patu. That’s why his numbers are so bad. These people are all small businesspeople.

            • patupaiarehe

               /  February 27, 2017

              OK G, I misunderstood you. And I agree

      • Conspiratoor

         /  February 27, 2017

        The opera’s not over G. But they need BE to make a series of stuff ups, stop bleating about the missing million and hit the nats where they’re weak – crime, immigration, roading infrastructure, housing affordability, while talking up trade opportunities with our traditional allies the US and UK. It’s not rocket science

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  February 27, 2017

          Too busy opposing 3 Strikes, road investment, RMA and building reg reform, and free trade. And Winston has the anti-immigrant vote sewn up so that doesn’t leave much, does it?

        • Blazer

           /  February 28, 2017

          @G…all those aspiring self employed you list …have reason to love high immigration and a skyrocketing housing market.The Natz know this and the perennial voters question…WIIFM…will be answered again ,at the election.Little actually wanted to target small business.The problem is that Labour for some reason ignore the reality…1 or 2 big issues that resonate ,go hard…or go back to the opposition benches.Trying to please everyone is a recipe for….defeat.

      • MaureenW

         /  February 27, 2017

        The Labour Party are gone-burgers. Outdated and stale – the world has moved on from their brand and style of politics.

  4. So if I’m not mistaken this poll was taken before Shane Jones joined NZF and Willie Jackson joined Labour … These developments could make a difference in March for sure … although not necessarily positive for either Party …?

    A credible opposition isn’t what’s needed any more IMHO. Government is largely an economic management role prescribed by the global banking and finance industries …

    Whoever gets the job is going to tow the line to much the same extent aside from some minor tweaking … some robbing Peter to pay Paul ….

    What’s needed now is an INCREDIBLE opposition … which might only make sense when the ruling paradigm tips over … or passes some tipping-point …

    http://neweconomics.net.nz/

    • patupaiarehe

       /  February 27, 2017

      I suspect PZ, that ‘Peters robbing Bill’, is a far more likely scenario… 😛

    • That tipping point may be the eventuality and eventual realisation that only a kind of ‘plutocracy’ of maybe 25% of the population can afford to buy their own house …?

      And that those who can afford to own will also own all the rental stock at their own hyper-inflated prices … for which taxpayers will be paying accommodation supplements …

    • Blazer

       /  February 28, 2017

      when did Jones ,the modern day Gilbert Myles,join NZ First?

  5. lurcher1948

     /  February 28, 2017

    Wow the right get excited with fake junk polls,The democrats polls said they were going to win, and once again has anyone EVER been polled?I reckon they poll them selfs and friends in a cafe in some trendy area, what’s the poll 100 people ??

    • Conspiratoor

       /  February 28, 2017

      Lurch, my wife just asked me why is trump so orange? I said carrots but honestly I’m just guessing. Can you help here? Cheers,c