The February Roy Morgan poll is unusually stable (for them) compared to January with just a few minor adjustments across the board.
- National 48% (up from 46)
- Labour 26% (down from 27)
- Greens 13% (up from 12.5)
- NZ First 8% (down from 9)
- Maori Party 2% (no change)
- ACT Party 1% (up from o.5)
- United Future 0% (down from 0.5)
- Conservative Party 0% (down from 0.5)
- Internet Party 0% (no change)
- Independent/Other 2% (no change)
Labour + Greens are 39% compared to National’s 48%.
National is polling at nearly double Labour’s level of support.
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 852 electors between January 30 – February 12, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.
That polling period is well before the Mt Albert by-election.
In addition the New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 140pts in February with 63.5% (up 0.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23.5% (up 0.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
National and Bill English should be be fairly happy with this result.
Labour may think the Mt Albert by-election will make the difference but there’s little reason to think it will affect support much.