Confusing weather with climate

Whale Oil took a swipe at a Greg Presland over claiming a weather event was due to climate change in I hope he is a better lawyer than he is a climate expert in response to a tweet:

screen-shot-2017-03-13-at-9-54-52-pm

Full-time blogger, part time local body politician and flea lawyer, Greg Presland thinks that the flooding in West Auckland wasn’t caused by rain.

I presume Slater knows that Presland is hardly a “full-time blogger”. So far today Presland has one post at The Standard, and his previous one was on Saturday.  There are 14 today at Whale Oil under Slater’s authorship.

And “wasn’t caused by rain” is also a dissy dig.

It’s impossible to know that climate change was a significant factor let alone the primary culprit in the heave rain over the last few days so that was silly thing to claim – but Slater is like a gumboot calling the umbrella black.

He has pointed out silliness like this before, as in: In short, the weather has been the hottest yet cold, and glaciers have receded yet grown

 Those scientists can take any situation:  warm or cold, wet or dry and it all leads to human-induced climate change.

But Slater has done the same thing himself. Like

Global warming strikes Hawaii

And:

How about that global warming thing eh?

Single events mean little in the overall scheme of climate things.

Slater also took an odd passing shot at Presland:

Perhaps if the clown actually unfolded his arms he might actually achieve something.

Who poses with their arms folded? See Internet warrior. He has weathered a few storms since then and his political climate has changed a tad.

 

19 Comments

  1. Griff

     /  March 14, 2017

    Re posted from Media watch – Tuesday
    You can not say any single event was caused by climate change .
    What you can say is all weather we now have is effected by climate change .
    When it comes to extreme rainfall events Physics says that warmer air can hold more moisture.
    There’s a lot of literature exploring increasing extreme rainfall events.
    https://scholar.google.co.nz/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0,5&as_vis=1&q=increase+in+extreme+rainfall+events+due+to+climate+change
    I have not seen any study’s for NZ but it is highly likely our rainfall patterns will follow the trend found else where.

    • PDB

       /  March 14, 2017

      From the American Meteorological Society 2016;

      “Finally, the observed record and historical model experiments were used to investigate changes in the recent past. In part because of large intrinsic variability, no evidence was found for changes in extreme precipitation attributable to climate change in the available observed record.”

      https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/09/10/new-study-finds-no-evidence-of-global-warming-increasing-extreme-rainfall/

      “In a Senate hearing Thursday, environmental scientist Roger Pielke of the University of Colorado said it’s “incorrect” to claim that global warming is spurring more extreme weather disasters.”

      ““Hurricanes have not increased in the U.S. in frequency, intensity or normalized damage since at least 1900,” Pielke added. “The same holds for tropical cyclones globally since at least 1970.”

      “Heat waves, droughts, wildfires and floods — all are now more frequent and intense,” said President Barack Obama in his State of the Union address.

      Pielke, however, notes that U.S. floods have not increased in “frequency or intensity” since 1950 and economic losses from floods have dropped by 75 percent as a percentage of GDP since 1940. Tornado frequency, intensity, and normalized damages have also not increased since 1950, and Pielke even notes that there is some evidence that this has declined.
      Pielke noted in his testimony that droughts have been shorter, less frequent, and have covered a smaller portion of the U.S over the last century. Globally, there has been very little change in the last 60 years, he said.”

      http://dailycaller.com/2013/07/18/scientist-tells-senators-global-warming-not-causing-extreme-weather/

      • Blazer

         /  March 14, 2017

        do you have a ‘cherry’ farm ..Pants…at least you do not need …pickers.

      • Griff

         /  March 14, 2017

        Pielke jnr
        the daily caller
        not a lot of people know that .
        ROFL
        lets have a reputable source ..EH
        Like the government

        or another
        Munich RE

        Note how geologic events stay almost constant but flooding in particular is increasing .

        • PDB

           /  March 14, 2017

          “lets have a reputable source ..EH Like the government”

          Surely you jest……..

          • Griff

             /  March 14, 2017

            Its a conspiracy i tell you.
            The government release fake news and bullshites number’s Munich re is just making it up to steal insurance money .
            But a political scientist, a fringe new site and a blog by some random accountant are 100% reliable
            {Sarc}

        • PDB

           /  March 14, 2017

          I see your handpicked data and raise you with the longest running rainfall record we have – England and Wales which shows no pattern month to month and record monthly rainfalls are well spread over the years..

          http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/monthly/HadEWP_monthly_qc.txt

          • Griff

             /  March 14, 2017

            You have given a large data base of numbers with no analysis.
            I is meaning less as without running the numbers though a statistical program we have no way of knowing if that record has any trend .
            more masturbation.

            • PDB

               /  March 14, 2017

              You seem obsessed with masturbation? It may be affecting your critical thinking. At least you may have learnt today what ‘rape culture’ actually means…

      • Griff

         /  March 14, 2017

        Oh buy the way a went to not a lot of people know that .
        I don’t usually bother going to such links as i have a philosophical objection to giving them traffic
        Kak kak what a trash site .
        The models are not programmed with any such thing as extreme rainfall. Such events are an emergent property from the physical parameters used to program the model .
        The scatterplots shown have no analysis as well .
        Mark one eyeball is not how to do statistical analysis to discern a trend .
        It is a blogshite in the clogosphere designed to confuse the ignorant.

        Here is a blog that does actually do analyses running some rainfall numbers .
        https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/11/21/the-rain-in-maine/
        Note the trend lines computed for you not just screeds of numbers and trendline less scatter plots.

  2. PDB

     /  March 14, 2017

    • Griff

       /  March 14, 2017

      Umm PDB do you know how records work ?
      Under a normal distribution of events
      The first event is always a record.
      The next has a 50% chance of being one
      The next 33.33 %
      etc etc etc

      Almost all your records occur after 1990 which is unusual to say the lest.
      Why is that do you think ?

      • PDB

         /  March 14, 2017

        No record rainfall for over 16 years during a time period you say we should be having massive amounts of extreme downpours (just bad luck I’d imagine)…..and the heaviest rainfall over a 10 minute period was way back in 1948…plenty of time to beat that record with all that man-made climate change of late…..

        Why is that do you think?

        • Griff

           /  March 14, 2017

          you say we should be having massive amounts of extreme downpours

          In logic this is what is called a straw man argument. ‘
          Making up some statement attributing it to your opponent and then rebutting it .
          Really it is mental self masturbation with your own imagination.
          (if that is ok PG)

          I said it is probably that like many other country’s we will see an increasing trend in extreme rainfall events under climate change.
          The amount of moisture in the atmosphere is increasing at about 7% per degree rise in temperature .
          That is not a massive shift but it does increase the chance of a record considerably.
          A formally one in a hundred year event may now be happening every fifty years .
          In a couple of decades such an event may happen every ten years .
          In another twenty such events may become the normal weather.

          As climate change has been proceeding for at lest the last sixty years we would expect more records in the later part of the Data
          Your statistics confirm that we probably do with most record events happening after 1990.

          • Griff

             /  March 14, 2017

            the heaviest rainfall over a 10 minute period was way back in 1948…plenty of time to beat that record with all that man-made climate change of late….

            Ahh
            a nice juice cherry
            Yum Yum

            1 hour 2001
            12 hours 1994
            24 hours 1994
            etcxetcetc
            Very very funny .
            You are actually serious and obviously transparent in your tortured logic and blatant bullshite .

            • PDB

               /  March 14, 2017

              16 years and counting…. most records over 20 years old…can you count?

  3. PDB

     /  March 14, 2017

    Must go now Griff, your nonsense is making me sleepy and quite frankly your masturbation obsession is somewhat troubling. Happy hockey sticks!