Newshub poll – Ardern surges

In Newshub’s latest (Reid Research) party poll the results are fairly standard compared to most recent polls (except the latest Roy Morgan which has National on 43.5%).

The big news is Jacinda Ardern on 10.5% topping Andrew Little slipping to 8.3% in preferred Prime Minister.

 

  • National 47.1%
  • Labour 30.8%
  • Greens 11.2%
  • NZ First 7.6%
  • TOP (Gareth Morgan) 0.8%
  • Maori Party 0.7%
  • ACT 0.4%
  • United Future 0.4%
  • Conservative Party 0.4%

Labour+Greens=42%

They have changed their polling method and haven’t polled for a while so trends and comparisons are difficult.

The poll is a sample of 1000 people, with 25 percent of respondents participating through an internet panel. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

Newshub reported “Gareth Morgan has made a huge splash on the political scene” – that’s a bit of a stretch but it’s a good start for TOP.

Oddly Newshub first and separately reported: Bill English languishes in popularity compared to John Key

A Newshub-Reid Research poll released on Tuesday has found the new Prime Minister is 11 points behind where John Key ranked in the preferred Prime Minister rankings.

Mr English is on 25 percent in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, compared to John Key’s result in August last year of 36.7 percent – which was also his worst.

There has been a concerted effort by the Prime Minister’s office to make English more relatable – encouraging his personality and humour to show through, and by getting him out in the community doing things like shearing sheep.

But Brand English clearly isn’t resonating with the voters like Brand Key did – and six months out from an election that will have National worried.

English at 25% at this stage doesn’t seem surprising to me, it is hardly remarkable.

What was surprising was that Newshub only pushed the English result an left the big news until later:

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 25%
  • Jacinda Ardern 10.5% (up 7.6)
  • Winston Peters 8.9%
  • Andrew Little 8.3% (down 2.2)

And a new ‘power rating’:

  • Bill English +52, -7, overall +35
  • Andrew Little +35, -36, overall -1

 

 

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29 Comments

  1. PDB

     /  March 21, 2017

    MSM knives out for Little………

    Reply
  2. Conspiratoor

     /  March 21, 2017

    It’s okay folks, no cause for panic…

    “Labour’s rising star Jacinda Ardern says she is too “selfish” to want to lead the Labour Party – she’d rather have a private life.

    In an interview announcing her new role as a Sunday Star-Times columnist, Ardern says people are wasting their time speculating about her as a future leader … she doesn’t want the job.”

    Reply
    • David

       /  March 21, 2017

      Andrew must know the knife is on the way. Declaring to the friendly media that you have no interest in the leadership means your 38 seconds away from trying to roll the current leader.

      Reply
      • Ardern would never say she has no interest in a position and then suddenly take it on.

        Reply
        • David

           /  March 21, 2017

          Rubbish, this is a tradition as long as politics itself. The story will be changed with a line like ‘My colleagues insisted, for the good of the country, I take this profound responsibility’.

          If she did not want to be a future leader, why on earth is the current deputy leader?

          Reply
          • I was being facetious, she said she didn’t want to be deputy until she suddenly said she wanted to do what was best for the party and be deputy.

            Reply
          • Conspiratoor

             /  March 21, 2017

            You are correct of course David, just as they always blame the family for chucking it in. But to be fair the quote above was made almost two years ago. Cheers,c

            Reply
        • artcroft

           /  March 21, 2017

          I thought that was her opinion about the deputy leadership just 10 mins before she took the job on.

          Reply
  3. Marner

     /  March 21, 2017

    Confirms how irrelevant the preferred PM question is. What was English on before he became PM? SFA. People answer based on who the current PM is, hence Key disappearing from view. Personally, I think English will be a very good PM, but might not get the chance to show it. Heard today that members of his protection detail already speculating on having new subject come September.

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  March 21, 2017

      “Heard today that members of his protection detail already speculating on having new subject come” – what does this mean? they can predict the future?

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  March 21, 2017

        word is Collins/Bridges doing the…numbers.

        Reply
        • PDB

           /  March 21, 2017

          At 47% I guess they must be worried………

          Reply
          • Nelly Smickers

             /  March 21, 2017

            I think you’re right Blazer, Wayne has heard the same thing from someone very close to the action …..*Judith* has a *big chance* – believe me ❗

            Simon? Meh…not so much. I really think the way he speaks is a big impediment to his ever landing the top job. A friend of mine lives in Tauranga, she was saying she followed him into the Courthouse one day and noticed he walked funny as well.

            Reply
        • Who’s word? Meaningless if it’s from The Standard. Or from no one.

          Reply
          • Blazer

             /  March 21, 2017

            As I hate to repeat…gossip,I won’t say it…again.

            Reply
            • I don’t believe that Collins would get anything like the numbers required to challenge, she got virtually no support when English was chosen.

            • Blazer

               /  March 21, 2017

              @PG..English/Bennett was a a pre concieved outcome.The so called challenges were just a charade.

            • That’s what you think or what you know?

            • Blazer

               /  March 21, 2017

              @PG,if you think Coleman just jumped out of tree….to challenge,sobeit.

            • I don’t know what was behind his bid for leadership. Do you? Or are you guessing?

      • Marner

         /  March 21, 2017

        Probably not much really. Guessing he doesn’t impress them like Key did. Hard act to follow though – Key made real effort to get on with his detail. You’d often see them having a quiet chat when going out to get a coffee, which confirms in my mind the comments from his staff that he was a very good boss.

        Reply
    • Griff

       /  March 21, 2017

      English is a care taker.
      A steady hand until after the election.
      Then the knifes will come out.
      [deleted – use proper names please – PG] is too toxic she will never have enough support .
      Paula [deleted – proper names please] will be top dog for national within six months of the election.

      Reply
  4. I think Little will step down as leader a few months before the election ,Ardern will have the numbers in caucus, little to be her deputy . To me this poll shows a fair amount of National voters have Ardern as there preferred PM, almost a straight swap from Key to Ardern.

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  March 21, 2017

      Wouldn’t just assume that – with such a high ‘no preference’ vote it is more likely that some of those undecided people have now backed Ardern (plus a couple of % from Little) and a large chunk of people that supported Key as PM are now ‘undecided’.

      Reply
      • Or don’t know, English has been a background politician and isn’t known that well by many people, Little is less known and Ardern is far less visible to the public than some of the media would indicate.

        Reply
  5. Alan Wilkinson

     /  March 21, 2017

    What on earth is an “internet panel”? I wouldn’t give any credibility whatever to those numbers unless that is clarified satisfactorily.

    Reply
  6. pdm

     /  March 21, 2017

    Do not get too excited about Little stepping down. He will only do so if his Union Masters tell him to step aside and if they do Ardern would be stupid to take the job before the election.

    Reply

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