Martyn Bradbury may be best known for his inaccurate political predictions, but this time the Bomber hits the target with his assessment of the current state of parties. Sort of. He makes some good assessments amongst his standard blunderbuss approach to parties he doesn’t like (just about all of them).
It’s about five and a half months until the election in September but I won’t quibble over that.
NATIONAL – current polling 46%
National are fading. Looking at the past 3 elections, National 6 months out from an election generally over poll by anywhere as much as 5-7 points so they are looking at 40% this election. Bill English hasn’t been a retail politician for a long time, and isn’t the natural at glad-handing the Mall voters with the skill Key was able to and while Paula Bennett is loved by the Nets, she is a hate figure to most of the country. So Dull and Loathed isn’t much of a leadership team.
I don’t think we can take much from past election year polling patterns because the situation this year is quite different, with a three term government with a new leader.
I think the jury is still out on English. He may grow into the job and step up, or he may fail to inspire, but it’s too seen to call.
Bradbury could probably apply ‘Loathed’ to anyone not on the far left, that’s an extreme diss but Bennett is unlikely to win the election for National.
LABOUR – current polling 30.2%
Labour are stalling in the polls and that’s a dangerous thing to allow happen. Labour haven’t been able to press forward any narrative because Andrew is in bloody Court fighting a defamation case. That’s left Labour flat footed.
The effects of Little’s defamation case are yet to be seen – the verdict may be out today if the jury finish their deliberations – but it is far from Little’s or Labour’s only problem. However Little should never have let it get to court.
The Leadership team of Andrew and Jacinda however is so popular with the voters…
That ones a dud, or at least hasn’t ignited yet apart from with a few pundit and party hopefuls.
GREENS – current polling 11.7%
Who thought this was a good idea?
Poor old Rod Donald must be rolling in his grave. It looks like a Young Nats ball photo.
That cover has dismayed may on the left, but it has only just come out.
The Greens face their biggest threat this election and still don’t seem to see it coming. NZ First has a real chance of over taking the Greens as the third largest political party and if that happens all they will get are crumbs from the table.
There has been some incredibly poor strategy and media management from the Greens since Andrew Campbell left, it is an open question if they have the skills to navigate the pressure cooker of this election.
Desperation to get into government can look desperate, and result in some desperate moves like North & South.
NZ FIRST – current polling 7.8%
The old silver fox of NZ politics must be licking his lips in anticipation because the current political landscape has never been better for his nationalist rhetoric. This election Winston will out Trump Trump. NZ First have the ability to benefit in the past from Labour vote collapse, but this time around I think he will benefit from a National Party vote collapse.
This is quite possible. It even looks likely, to an extent at least. But it is by no means a given. More wrong predictions have been made about Peters than any other New Zealand politician.
MAORI PARTY – current polling 2.4%
Once Winston releases his bottom line that no Government he serves in will have the Maori Party, they will struggle to find relevance and a justification for people to vote for them. While they stand a good chance of winning Maori electorates because of the treaty with MANA, their Party vote will take a hit.
In the last poll the Maori Party jumped to 4%, but it’s too son to tell whether that is a sign of a change in support or an outlier.
I think it’s difficult to predict the MP party vote this election. They could easily pick up votes from Labour, and ex Mana. Or not.
Maori have tended to be canny tactical voters prepared to shift their support to where they see the biggest benefit to them. They may rise against Peters.
UNITED FUTURE – current polling .2%
If there is a God, Greg O’Connor will beat Dunne and this will shut down one possible National Party ally.
That’s a wish rather than a prediction. Ohariu is open and hard to predict.
The party vote has all but disappeared. Damien Light looks competent in Auckland but the media are unlikely to give him any attention.
ACT – current polling .4%
Seymour will win his seat, and might be able to appeal to the migrant community as a champion for them while Winston is going on the rampage by making a principled stand against the xenophobia about to be unleashed. ACT could get a second MP if Seymour navigates it well.
If National sheds support ACT stand a chance of picking some of it up.
TOP – current polling .4%
The problem for TOP has been a lack of media oxygen and platform for Gareth Morgan.
I’d say the opposite – their biggest problem is the attention Morgan is getting. He looks unelectable the more he is seen.
MANA – current polling .2%
Hone is unhappy with the Maori Party Land Bill, if things can be sorted over that, he stands a solid chance of retaking Te Tai Tokerau.
Hard to call there, it will be an interesting contest.
The biggest indicator for a genuine desire for change came last week from two Horizon Polls.
That’s a bomb from Bradbury – cherry picking a poll to support an argument is not advisable, cherry picking a Horizon poll is nuts.
I think the 2017 election will be close and won on the margins, but if there is a change of Government, the most likely outcome will be a Labour-NZ First minority Government with the Greens in supply and confidence for a couple of Ministry positions.
All our elections tend to be ‘close’ under MMP, and that’s a possible outcome. But five and a half months is a long time in politics.