Polls and Peters

Media have been making a big thing about Winston Peters after poll results come out for years. A lot of nonsense has been spouted, and there’s been very poor analysis in the rush to promote the headline maker.

Peters seems to have had more proclamations of ‘king maker’ than Queen Elizabeth 2 has had curtseys.

Tracy Watkins at Stuff: Poll numbers and record immigration election-year music to Peters’ ears

The heavy breathing would have gone up the Richter scale with two figures out this week.

The first was a Roy Morgan poll putting Peters at 10.5 per cent support.

A caution here. Both Labour and National will tell you they don’t put too much stock in the Morgan poll, as its numbers can move around a lot. But over time it is a useful indicator of trends. And Peters is definitely trending.

Not really. NZ First has been fluctuating up and down in polls.

His numbers are particularly significant because Peters has a history of finishing strongly  As the Morgan poll notes, in 2011 NZ First averaged 3.5 per cent for much of the election year before winning 6.59 per cent of the vote.

In 2015 Peters averaged 5 per cent support and got 8.66 per cent on election night (the final round of polls had him at about 8 per cent).

She means 2014.

His rise appears to be starting early this year.

I think that’s nonsense on two counts.

The terms ending in 2011 and 2014 were quite different to this term. In those terms NZ First support dropped significantly between elections and rose significantly late in the election campaigns.

This term NZ First hasn’t dropped the same, in large part due to the publicity and success of Peters’ by-election win just a few months into the term.

And NZ First polled higher in Roy Morgan polls last year, eased back, and has bounced back. That is not a trend.

On top of that the political situation is quite different this term, with the National led government in it’s third term, and with John Key resigning. And Labour is onto their fourth leader post-Clark, and Labour and Greens are presenting as a combined option.

Here are NZ First poll results (Roy Morgan) for 2016 and to April in 2017:

RoyMorganNZFirst2017April

Since peaking at 12.5 a year ago the trend seems to be very flat with fluctuations barely outside the margin of error.

And Colmar Brunton is similar so far this year for NZ First:

  • February 2017 – 11%
  • March 2017 – 8%

Reid Research:

  • March 2017 – 7.6%

About al that can be taken from this is that:

  • NZ First support has stayed higher this term than in the previous two terms,
  • Their support is fluctuating up and down, not trending,
  • The political situation this election is quite different to the last two elections.

With about five months to go until the election it’s impossible to predict what NZ First support will do in the polls, and how it will end up in the election.

I think NZ First is unlikely to end up with less support than in the 2014 election (8.66%, up from 6.59% in 2011), unless something unexpected happens like Peters gets sick.

But it is pure speculation trying to predict how much higher they may go.

Shane Jones is expected to be announced as a candidate next month – that could help their chances, or it might not. Jones’ popularity, especially outside Labour, is untested. He lost to Pita Sharples in the Tāmaki Makaurau electorate in 2011.

And Jones isn’t all that popular in NZ First: Never Shane: NZ First members oppose political return of Shane Jones

Shane Jones’ rumoured political comeback with NZ First has faced a setback, with party members setting up a “Never Shane” group to protest his potential candidacy.

Jones’ return to politics as an NZ First candidate has been tipped for some time, with suggestions he may announce his plans at his annual Waitangi barbecue on February 4.

However, a Facebook page described as “a network of NZ First members and supporters opposed to Shane Jones” has been set up ahead of a potential announcement.

Some NZ First MPS, deputy Ron Mark in particular, may be uneasy about Jones being promoted too.

A lot may depend on how well received this year’s budget is, and how well Bill English does in the election campaign, as that will determine whether National sheds votes or not (they are currently looking shakier than previously in polls).

But it’s not a given that National voters will switch to NZ First.

A lot could also depend on whether Andrew Little and Labour strike a chord with voters or not.

NZ First support could be anywhere between 10-15% (higher would be unusual but not impossible).

But it’s far too soon to get any good idea of where they might end up.

A key factor could be whether the voters are comfortable with NZ First holding the balance of power or not. They have avoided that in the last three elections.

 

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37 Comments

  1. artcroft

     /  29th April 2017

    I can’t see those who voted for Winston in the last election ditching him for Little or English this time. I also think National or Labour/Greens will need him to form the next govt.

    Expect weeks of dithering after Sept 23rd as Winnie makes the most of all the media attention before announcing he’ll be (inter alia) the minister of horse racing for National.

    Reply
  2. Hahaha, “Peters seems to have had more proclamations of ‘king maker’ than Queen Elizabeth 2 has had curtseys.” Love it 🙂

    Reply
  3. Gezza

     /  29th April 2017

    Peters seems to have had more proclamations of ‘king maker’ than Queen Elizabeth 2 has had curtseys.

    As Monarchs go, I think HM is a brick. 👑 🌹. But looking at the current succession plan, I’m not sure how good she’s been as a king maker. 😕

    Reply
    • Nelly Smickers

       /  29th April 2017

      Reply
      • Pete Kane

         /  29th April 2017

        Never mind Nel, roast duck soon on the menu.

        Reply
        • Nelly Smickers

           /  29th April 2017

          Yep, Wayne went up to the farm last weekend to put all the booze and stuff in the Maimai……apparently there were *hundreds* circling the pond.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  29th April 2017

            Well, he can probably kiss goodbye to that lot then, especially the booze. Probably all the *locals* know his ute by now. Pretty brazen. You think they’d wait until dark to show up. Has he got clear views of any of their faces on cellcam❓ 😕

            Reply
        • Anonymous Coward

           /  29th April 2017

          Never roast a duck, you just get overcooked breast and undercooked legs.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  29th April 2017

            Charlie’s turned into such a freaking bully none of the others can get a feed. I’m thinking of taking him out. What’s best way to cook him?

            Reply
            • Anonymous Coward

               /  29th April 2017

              Break it down, render the fat, confit the legs and pan fry the breasts.

            • Gezza

               /  29th April 2017

              👍 He beat up two perfectly polite young drakes & and Judes’ sister Maisy this morning. His goose is cooked.

            • Pete Kane

               /  29th April 2017

              How old is Charles first? (And what breed?)

            • Gezza

               /  29th April 2017

              He’s a mongrel. Mallard & Grey Duck by the look of him.

            • Pickled Possum

               /  29th April 2017

              Hiya Gezza Soundz Serious at the Bird Hangout
              My fave duck recipe is steamed in the hangi
              failing that sloow cooked in the camp oven on the wood stove
              failing that skinned jointed & crumbed in parmy
              then deep fried in duck hinu, Yum.
              failing that here is the recipe for Peeking Duck 😉
              http://www.cookingchanneltv.com/recipes/ching-he-huang/peking-duck

            • Gezza

               /  29th April 2017

              Not keen on the hangi, sis. Chooks taste boiled unless you brown em afterwards. What sort of stuffing if I do the camp oven??

            • Gezza

               /  29th April 2017

              Actually never mind – I’ll ask Shane’s missus to show me their Peking Duck recipe. She’ll have some chinese cabbage too, n other weird stuff that tastes nice though.

            • Pickled Possum

               /  29th April 2017

              Shane’s missus …Ha Ha Ha
              If She doesn’t know how to pick a solid man then there is
              2 shows she will know how to cook a duck …

              No show or Shit show, bro

              BTW
              Winston is going to be the winner, the old Lady down the valley told me.
              “That boy, Mark my words, he is going to be the Next Prime Minister
              “Why is that, oh wizened one?”
              “Because he Cares”

              And there you have it bro Hot from the out back.

              Jez Gez, No wonder we lost so much … way back.

              Winston does care about Te Tai Tokerau
              but he can only do so much you know,
              there’s only HIM.

            • Gezza

               /  29th April 2017

              Kaore, sis! Not karihika Shane 😡

              Shane next door to me. I know him & the 44 year-old Beijing cutie he married, & her olds, have got their eye on a duck they’ve been fattening up. Poor thing.

              (I’ve told Shane-next-door if Ella & Elvis, my native longfin tunas go missing there’ll be trouble.)

  4. Gezza

     /  29th April 2017

    It’s too soon to say how Rt Hin W R Peters PC might do, but it’ll probably be better than last time. Shane Jones could lose them votes. But whatever, Winnie’s probably thinking he’s on a roll so I’m looking forward to Parliament resuming on 2 May.

    Reply
  5. Chuck Bird

     /  29th April 2017

    The next polls should be out soon. If they average over 10% I cannot see him dropping much. I think a few Nats might not be impressed with Immigration’s treatment of the Afghan paedophile who has been allowed to stay and the secrecy surrounding it. If he promises a binding referendum on the Maori seats if he has the balance of power he will romp in.

    Reply
    • Hasn’t a referendum on the Maori seats been NZF policy for yonks? Or just scrapping them?

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  29th April 2017

        It’s a general referendum – or a poll of Maori electorates.

        Policy as at today:
        “NZ First will:

        Ensure the future of the Maori seats is a decision for the people to make having examined the significant increase in representation numbers of Maori MPs under MMP.
        …”
        http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/maori_affairs

        Winston leaves it deliberately vague I believe. When I enquired with their Maori Affairs spokesperson last year if they mean the decision would be up to all voters, or just those in the Maori electorates, I was told – the latter.

        I suggested that that should perhaps be clarified in their policy statement. Never heard back. Policy statement hasn’t changed. Winston is a lawyer. I think that’s intentional. It gives him options, depending on what seems the most politically favourable interpretation.

        Reply
        • Chuck Bird

           /  29th April 2017

          Why not put your request in writing? He will certainly be asked about it during the election campaign. If it is as you suggest Don Brash with his Hobson’s Pledge Campaign will have been taken for a ride.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  29th April 2017

            I did. I was directed to their spokesperson.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  29th April 2017

              Tbh – it’s such an obviously ambiguous policy statement I am surprised the media has never publicly put the question to him – or not as far as I am aware.

            • Chuck Bird

               /  29th April 2017

              Have you a copy of your request and the reply please?

            • Gezza

               /  29th April 2017

              I do not regard any NZF spokesperson as having authority to say exactly what their current leader’s policy interpretation is where it is clearly ambiguous.

            • Gezza

               /  29th April 2017

              I made it as a private person to person email exchange. I personally believe I is ok to say what interpretation I was given, but I am not prepared to disclose the emails themselves. I believe, for the reason I state above, that this is something if others have concerns about, they should clarify that directly with the leader of the NZF party.

      • Chuck Bird

         /  29th April 2017

        It has for quite a while. However, they have not been in a position to do so. Winston wants to leave a legacy as John Key did. If he make a firm commitment in the real election campaign and gets the balance of power and does not deliver it would not be a very good legacy. Besides he has more reason now than in the past. He would like to see the end of the Maori Party.

        Reply
  1. Polls and Peters – NZ Conservative Coalition

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