UK and NZ polls similar

Matthew Hooton claims that the non-public UMR poll has National on 44% and Labour on 28%.

That’s still a big lead for the Conservatives in the UK and Labour there has a lot of ground to make up to be competitive in their election to be held in a month.

There’s still over four months until New Zealand’s election.

National on 44% (they were 43.5% in last month’s Roy Morgan poll) is in risky territory. At that level of support they would have to have NZ First support, either in a coalition or from the cross benches, to form a government.

They could recover some support, depending a lot on how well this month’s budget is seen by the public, but they could just as easily slip back more.

Labour at 28% seem stuck in the high twenties. They were 29.5% in last month’s Roy Morgan. Unless they improve substantially it will be difficult for them to form a government.

These poll numbers are supported by Colin James’ column this week.

Labour in congress — needing a stronger story

The “Jacinda effect” appears to have wisped away. Here and there in the Labour party one can hear glum whispers of three more “long years” in opposition.

Likewise from “coalition” partner, the Greens — who, by the way, got far more in election donations in 2014 than Labour.

“Nine long years”, Labour grandee Steve Maharey used to intone in 1999 before Labour’s win that year. Stuart Nash intoned it last week with the same hope of release.

But will it be “12 long years”? That question will hang over this coming weekend’s pre-election congress (conference).

Labour’s poll average has sunk from over 30% in March to under 28%. Was the lift it got after making Jacinda Ardern deputy leader a blip? (National has also slipped but is still around 45%.) 

Every ‘game changer’ tried by Labour seems to have been no more than a blip. The closer ties with Greens, and attempting to combine Labour and Green poll support so they look competitive with National, has failed to lift anyone by NZ First.

A lot could happen over the next four months. Both National and Labour will be hoping that NZ First isn’t the main beneficiary.

17 Comments

  1. Corky

     /  May 10, 2017

    ”The “Jacinda effect” appears to have wisped away. Here and there in the Labour party one can hear glum whispers of three more “long years” in opposition.”

    Cheer up,guys. Imagine the carnage if you won the election. Leave governance to the experts…National, the great helmsman of our beautiful nation.

    Interesting to see the Aussie budget is a big spend up as they try to emulate the John Key effect. The difference was Key and Billy knew what they were doing.

    • PDB

       /  May 10, 2017

      Maybe the voters have finally worked out that Jacinda isn’t much chop and even if she was nobody can make Little more appealing as PM. Bill may be as boring as Little but Bill at least knows about economics.

      http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/92417603/surplus-track-jumps-to-15-billion-as-government-prepares-may-25-budget

      • Blazer

         /  May 10, 2017

        stop being mischievious PDB…those are treasury predictions…and the National hierarchy have emphatically stated..they cannot be relied upon…unless..??

        • Corky

           /  May 10, 2017

          I haven’t got my glasses. Where does it say this is a prediction? Or is it that you wish it was a prediction and not fact?

          • Blazer

             /  May 10, 2017

            how can a prediction be a..fact…serial..fool?

            • Corky

               /  May 10, 2017

              Answer the question. Stop obfuscating. And read what I write. Once again- I haven’t got my glasses. Geez, the sooner Alan gets on board again the better. He usually soaks up your attention.

            • PDB

               /  May 10, 2017

              1 billion $ ACTUAL ahead of treasury forecast………..

          • Blazer

             /  May 10, 2017

            National economics explained…’Well when you balance the books between fiscal surplus versus net debt who wouldn’t!!??? That’s like saying … I’ve got $10 in one account but a $1000 debt on a credit card somewhere else … but we still have $10.That s all she..wrote.

            • PDB

               /  May 10, 2017

              Got to be in surplus to be in a position to reduce debt………a Labour led govt wouldn’t be in that position after paying for all their election promises, plus a good chunk of Green promises, with the odd Winston promise to pay for too.

            • Corky

               /  May 10, 2017

              Yeah, most countries run a debt for a variety of reasons. Debt for a country isn’t measured by balancing an imaginary check book. Its gauged more on percentage of GDP, and whether that debt is able to be serviced effectively. That ratio for New Zealand is acceptable. Don’t forget Blazer, we have a rockstar economy whether you like it or not.

    • Blazer

       /  May 10, 2017

      who ..pays?

      • Corky

         /  May 10, 2017

        Perception, Blazer. That’s all that matters.

  2. Corky

     /  May 10, 2017

    Unbelievable. Of course that money can disappear in a flash. But at least National had something to lose in the first place.

    I wonder if the budget is getting a rejig ? National may have, or be working on an election treat that will sink the Left. Benefit increases may be on the cards. That will sink the good ship Marxabillus.

    • PDB

       /  May 10, 2017

      My money would be on a tax-free threshold as it gives more money back to those who earn less, at the very least adjustments to account for tax bracket creep.

      • Corky

         /  May 10, 2017

        That would be great. Probably be better than benefit increases. I always remember the shock when I helped someone fill out a benefit renewal form. The person had been given a printout of their earnings. Reading through the printout I saw their benefit was taxed. Why? Unless its for some accountancy reason I’m ignorant of. What a waste of time taxing an imaginary earning. A little like Swiss Rounding on product prices..

        • High Flying Duck

           /  May 10, 2017

          All Government benefits and entitlements are taxed as the recipients often have other income. It makes it easier to handle tax returns when all income is treated the same.
          It isn’t difficult for the Government to work out a benefit net amount and gross it up for tax.

  1. UK and NZ polls similar – NZ Conservative Coalition