UK election campaign

What the hell has happened to the UK election campaign, and in particular the Conservative campaign and Theresa May?

The latest YouGov poll 30-31 May:

  • Conservatives 42%  (was 48% 2-3 May)
  • Labour 39% (was 29%)
  • Lib Dems 7% (was 10%)
  • UKIP 4% (was 5%)
  • Other 7%

The Telegraph: General election 2017: Latest polls and odds tracker

Labour continue to narrow the gap on the Conservatives with one new forecast from YouGov suggesting that Theresa May could actually lose seats on June 8.

At the start of the campaign some polls had the Tories at almost double the vote share of the Labour Party, indicating that the most likely outcome would be a landslide victory that would increase Theresa May’s current working majority of 17 in the House of Commons.

However, May’s lead has dropped from 17.8 points to below 10 in our poll tracker since she called the election on April 18.

Wikipedia: Opinion polling for the United Kingdom general election, 2017

May could end up failing worse than Hillary Clinton.

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14 Comments

  1. Alan Wilkinson

     /  June 1, 2017

    Yes, surprised Missy hasn’t commented on this trend yet.

    Reply
    • Missy

       /  June 2, 2017

      I have been busy this week, and will be pretty busy for the next couple of days, but hope to have more later.

      However, there was an article behind the paywall in the Telegraph yesterday by a pollster who has correctly predicted the 2015 election, the Scottish Independence Referendum, and the EU Referendum within a point or two, and he pointed out the inaccuracies with YouGov in particular, and most polling in general. He still believes that Theresa May will have a 100+ seat majority.

      There are a number of factors not taken into account with regards to most polling in the UK, and it is notoriously wrong, and apparently YouGov in particular over estimates Labour’s support.

      Will do more when I get a chance (maybe not until Saturday).

      Reply
  2. Two Words….. Shy + Tory…..

    Reply
  3. Exactly Dave. I’ll be very surprised if yougov has this right. They didn’t call the US election anywhere near right

    Reply
  4. Brown

     /  June 1, 2017

    Typically English really – snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. They are experts at this.

    Reply
  5. Missy

     /  June 2, 2017

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  June 2, 2017

      She might just need to get out & about a bit more amongst the common people Missy – show them she actually understands their needs & desires better than Jeremy’s lot❓😳

      Reply
      • Missy

         /  June 2, 2017

        She has been, it just isn’t getting the coverage Corbyn & Co’s blunders are.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  June 2, 2017

          Well, could she speak in an East End accent in the South & one of the Northern accents in other parts of the country maybe ? 😳

          Reply
          • Missy

             /  June 2, 2017

            Nah, the Northern Accent isn’t working for Tim Farron so not sure it would work for Theresa May. She is a Vicar’s daughter, I think the expectation is that she will talk posh.

            ‘East End’ Accent these days is more likely to be Middle Eastern or African to be honest, not many true East Enders left in the East End.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  June 2, 2017

              Nige is saying in his LBC radio show clip I just posted on World Watch that the Party is pulling her out of the limelight because she’s coming across as cold, hard & a flip flopper – as he predicted, and that they are going to be getting Boris & probably Davis (Davies?) to front the media from now on … ?

  6. Missy

     /  June 2, 2017

    For those getting excited about the YouGov poll, take this into account.

    Here are what each of the polls this week have as the Conservatives lead:

    29 May:
    YouGov +4
    ICM / Guardian +12

    30 May:
    YouGov +3
    Kantar Public +10

    31 May:
    YouGov +3
    Survey Monkey +6

    One of the issues is those that have a small lead are estimating higher than average turnout for the 18-24 age group. Traditionally this age group have the lowest turnout of all age groups, and whilst they are more likely to vote Labour, they are also less likely to vote. The EU Referendum last year had a higher than normal turnout in this age group, and it was just over 30%, but some of these polling companies are anticipating a turnout of up to 80%. Also, many young University Students who are Conservatives do not openly admit it so as to avoid the abuse and bullying they are often subjected to (this was mentioned in an interview with a Conservative Student about 2-3 months ago on another matter), so in polling they are likely to either say that they are voting Labour or Liberal Democrats, or they will say they are undecided, which leads to another issue with some polling companies. Some companies will often apportion a higher number of the undecideds to Labour than will actually vote Labour, the 2015 election showed that the majority of undecideds were just ‘shy tories’, those that knew they would vote Conservative, but refused to say so.

    Reply

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