1 News-Colmar Brunton poll June 2017

The latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll:

  • National 49% (up from 46)
  • Labour 30% (no change)
  • Greens 9% (down from 11)
  • NZ First 9% (up from 8)
  • Maori Party 1% (down from 4)
  • ACT 1% (no change)
  • TOP 1% (up from 0)
  • Undecided 12%
  • Refused to answer 4%

Field work conducted 27-31 May.

Labour+Greens at 39% is 10% behind National alone, that’s another game changer that doesn’t seem to have changed much at this stage.

Labour+Greens+NZ First at 48% is marginally behind National.

There could be a post-budget bounce here for National but Labour and Greens will be worried and/or frustrated.

TOP will be happy to at least have registered but this isn’t as good for them as the recent (but unproven) Listener poll.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 29% (up from 26)
  • Andrew Little 8% (up from 7)
  • Winston Peters 7% (down from 9)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6%

English has gone up, Little also but barely. The Ardern bubble seems to have burst a bit.

Are the budget tax changes good for the country?

  • Yes 44%
  • No 30%
  • Don’t know 16%
  • Haven’t heard about them 10%

Colmar Brunton in 2014:

2014 Colmar Brunton polls for National:

  • 22–26 March 2014 – 47%
  • 17–21 May 2014 – 51%
  • 21–25 June 2014 – 50%
  • 19–23 July 2014 – 52%
  • 9–13 August 2014 – 50%
  • 23–27 August 2014 – 48%
  • 30 August – 3 September 2014 – 50%
  • 13–17 September 2014 – 45%

Election result: 47.04%

Labour:

  • 22–26 March 2014 – 31%
  • 17–21 May 2014 – 30%
  • 21–25 June 2014 – 29%
  • 19–23 July 2014 – 28%
  • 9–13 August 2014 – 26%
  • 23–27 August 2014 – 28%
  • 30 August – 3 September 2014 – 25%
  • 13–17 September 2014 – 25%

Election result: 25.13%

10 Comments

  1. artcroft

     /  June 7, 2017

    This is a huge result for National after three terms in office. The renewal has been completed and National look set for another two terms in office. Andrew Little can already start thinking about his post politics life.

    • It could be a budget bounce that settles back, but Little and Labour crashed post budget so have a bit of damage repair to do.

      Greens will be a bit nervous about their personality politics approach.

  2. Nice result for National and if it was an confirmed election result would totally defang Winston…. but its really just a outer band result around the long term National score of 44-46 percent the lower band being 42-43, which is where the Nats have been for a number of years. As always its the undecideds who are real importance

    • artcroft

       /  June 7, 2017

      True, but it’s the fact that they are four months out from a potential fourth term. Historically they should be in the mid to upper thirties. To be at 49%, basically unchanged from Sept 2008. Amazing!

      • Lack of an effective opposition as opposed to any strength by national methinks…

        • Gezza

           /  June 8, 2017

          Yes. Where they are vulnerable, housing mostly, still very low bottom end wages – meaning state family welfare top-ups the well-off bitch about, violent crime & police levels, prison populations growing, humungous taxes on cigarettes, not spent on remediating the harm they do & now causing violent crime – Labour cannot attack them effectively. It doesn’t matter how good a man or his intentions might be,

          Andrew Little couldn’t smoothly & successfully lead a government of this country. And the large majority of potential voters know it. Their policies seem to be a patchwork of ideas not yet successfully packaged & costed, & their team hopeless at conveying the impression their spokespeople have the skills & abilities required in their existing roles to be effective Cabinet Ministers.

          Overall, as a team, the Greens are the same, but to be fair I haven’t really looked at Shaw’s performance. Meteria, I’m sorry to say it, comes across to me like an excitable overgrown schoolgirl. I dunno how that outlook would be much use.

          Maybe unfair to both parties, you can’t judge a potential Minister on a lack of performance in a role they’ve never had when, if appointed, they’d have the benefit of a full department of advisers & officials who do the grunt work on policy implementation & changes anyway – but realistically, if spokespeople & candidates can’t convince enough voters they really know what they’re talking about & have the chops to do a good job, they won’t get elected.

          National seem to have an equally muddleish patchwork of policies as well. And they simply pirate anything that looks likely to get traction for another party as ‘head ’em off at the pass’ policy, or tinker – with fanfare – to be seen to be addressing it, when a major problem looms in the mediascape & public consciousness. But they have the experience & a fresh team who look and sound competent. Even where they’re not.

          Not enough people are yet hurting eniugh to want a change when they look at the options. The situation in the UK is fascinating – I think Corbyn has suddenly lifted his game in the media somewhat. I don’t think Little can.

  3. PDB

     /  June 7, 2017

    I think National & Labour overstated by about 4% each, Greens understated. Winston still to decide who is govt come election day.

  4. Bill Brown

     /  June 7, 2017

    Earth to @Blazer ….. are you there Blazer?

    Over

  5. MaureenW

     /  June 7, 2017

    Andrew Little must be feeling proud – he’s been a major success at getting National reelected.