Final day of UK campaign

Can Theresa May lose what appeared to be an unlosable election for the Conservatives?

Can Jeremy Corbyn claim a miracle victory, despite the Labour caucus being in turmoil before the campaign began?

The Telegraph:  General election polls: Latest tracker and odds

The final General Election polls – all published before polling booths open – have showed that the gap between the Tories and Labour has remained at six points, after a Labour surge that saw the gap close dramatically.

The poll from Survation has the Tory lead at just one point over Labour, while ComRes has it standing at 12 points, as Jeremy Corbyn appeared on the BBC’s Leaders Debate while Theresa May boycotted it.

The Telegraph’s UK General Election polling averages:

UKPollTracker2017

According to the latest forecast by the University of East Anglia’s Chris Hanretty, the Conservatives would still gain a strong majority in Parliament.

Thanks to seat gains in the North of England and Scotland, Theresa May would benefit from a swing of 45 seats and end up with 375 MPs in Parliament.

The election is on Thursday 8 June, with polling between 7 am and 10 pm, so the results should be known sometime during Friday in New Zealand.

14 Comments

  1. Missy

     /  June 8, 2017

    A 45 seat swing will still give May a 100 seat majority in Parliament, which is better than what some were saying this morning, and despite the doom and gloom is what many were predicting at the beginning of the campaign (most realistic predictions were for a 100-120 seat majority).

  2. Missy

     /  June 8, 2017

  3. Missy

     /  June 8, 2017

    Final YouGov poll gives Conservatives 7 point lead.

    Best response:

    • Gezza

       /  June 8, 2017

      Last few days have made this election much more interesting. Theresa got a shock. Surprised she decided to go down the “Corbyn not fit to govern” attack track. Worked out badly for Hillary. Has changed my perception of Theresa to a more negative view than before.

      • Missy

         /  June 8, 2017

        You aren’t the only one on that. I still think she will be a good PM, but I don’t think she is a very good campaigner.

        I do think much of the way their campaign went was a classic Crosby Textor campaign which I don’t think fits well here.

        They did change slightly this week to focussing on Diane Abbott, partly in response to what they were hearing on the doorstep about how people were worried about Abbott as Home Secretary.

        • Gezza

           /  June 8, 2017

          Politics is politics I guess. I still have a preference for politicians who can inspire to attract votes rather than attack to persuade people not to vote for someone else. I tend not to vote for a candidate who does that.

          • Gezza

             /  June 8, 2017

            Telly reports I’ve seen were focussing on Corbyn’s supposedly inspiring young people to get out & vote this time. Showed clips of young uns intending to ‘first time’ vote Labour. Might’ve been on Al Jazeera, which devotes more time to it than 1Ewes.

            • Missy

               /  June 9, 2017

              They are living in a fantasy world of revolutionary politics unfortunately and somehow see him as being a revolutionary along the lines of Che Guevara.

              Also, an interesting piece I saw yesterday looked at this phenomenon and one of the conclusions drawn was that many of these young people are at University, and universities today are more left wing than ever, these voters are just hearing from Corbyn what they are being taught in the educational institutions.

              Another point made is none of them are old enough to understand the danger & revulsion of the terrorism connections, nor are they old enough to have known what it was like last time Labour had a hard left manifesto in the 70’s.

              It is a cult.

              I fear for London over the summer though, after what happened in 2015 I fear the protests / riots will be worse this year.

            • Gezza

               /  June 9, 2017

              “I fear for London over the summer though, after what happened in 2015 I fear the protests / riots will be worse this year.”

              Really? With all the police & security now on the streets? I admired the Cuban revolutionaries & the IRA at tertiary student age. I also understand why Hamas & Hezbollah exist. Hamas is foolish in refusing to acknowledge a state of Israel while being prepared to consider a separate Palestinian state. Israel are occupiers & terrorists too. i

              It’s not the black & white good vs evil meme Kushner/Trump portrays.

            • Gezza

               /  June 9, 2017

              PS: I supported the IRA’s campaign to liberate Eire Missy. My ancestors were from Cork, Kerry & Clare. I also supported their struggles against protestant discrimination against catholics in NI, & initially to an extent to liberate the rest of Ireland – i.e. recover the remaining stolen lands.

              I did not support the sectarian killings on both sides. To me, The Troubles was a struggle of British vs Irish in geographically Northern Eire, which coincidentally mirrored a religious divide. An Irish liberation campaign was incomplete & did not end when Lloyd George bottled it and drew the line across the doggy’s head. The Protestant hatred of NI Catholics (Papists!) was palpable & disgusting & still is on Orangeman’s Day.

              The British had a Britain, this was Ireland. Go back to Britain if you don’t want to be Irish. The bombing campaign & assassinations in Britain bothered me however. Not so much when the target location was identified & a warning phoned in to spare lives, as happened at first.

              As time went by, however, I came to accept that generations of British people had now been born in NI & would not, and realistically could not, leave the land of their birth. They were British. And they outnumbered the Republican Irish in the counties concerned. So I have ever since accepted NI is British now, and should be – but all must be treated fairly & represented in Government.

          • Missy

             /  June 8, 2017

            I tend to prefer candidates – and parties – that don’t do the attack and are more positive, however, I have had to abandon a bit about how I would normally vote in this election as I truly do not believe that Labour will be good for the country. Jeremy Corbyn is a dangerous man, unfortunately the young people don’t understand how dangerous he is, and how his past associations are subversive, and they just attack anyone who tries to tell them as being a fascist or tory – he is happy with that.

            Though to be fair he has also done his bit of attack and negative, also Labour have used proxies for the worst of their attacks via Momentum.

  4. Missy

     /  June 8, 2017

    Labour’s polling company’s last poll has the Conservatives 13% ahead, there are some rumours that they predict Labour will lose around 50 seats.

  1. Final day of UK campaign – NZ Conservative Coalition