UK election results today

Voting continues in the UK general election at the moment. Polling stations close at 10 pm – UK time is 11 hours behind (their daylight saving time) – so that will be 9 am NZ time.

Polling stations will close at 10pm this evening and an eagerly anticipated exit poll will follow shortly after.

The reason it is so eagerly anticipated? Exit polls are almost always in the right ball park when it comes to predicting the final result.

So we should get an idea from the exit polls mid morning here, with more detailed results coming out through the our day.

Despite the polls closing dramatically during the campaign it seems unlikely they will have closed enough for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour to beat the current Prime Minister Theresa May.

The Telegraph:  General Election 2017 Live: Polls predict Tory win as May and Corbyn vote 

Theresa May is on course to increase her majority in the House of Commons with a final General Election 2017 poll giving the Tories a lead of eight points over Labour as the nation heads to the ballot box.

The Conservatives had as much as a 24 point lead when the snap election was called by the Prime Minister.

But Ipsos MORI’s final 2017 election survey for the Evening Standard, which was undertaken on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, puts the Conservatives on 44 per cent and Labour on 36.

Meanwhile, a YouGov poll that was published on Wednesday evening put the Tories on 42 per cent and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party on 35, a lead of seven points.

So it looks like the Conservatives should win fairly comfortably unless there is an unprecedented poll discrepancy.

The results will emerge from the UK during our day here.

EVENING UPDATE:

BBC Summary

  1. General election ends in a hung Parliament
  2. Conservatives set to win 318 seats
  3. Labour predicted to get 262
  4. Theresa May promises ‘period of stability’, but Jeremy Corbyn urges her to quit
  5. Nick Clegg loses his seat, but Sir Vince Cable is re-elected
  6. SNP’s Westminster leader loses his seat

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-2017-40171454

There are 650 seats so 326 are needed for a majority, theoretically, but Sinn Fein don’t front up, and as they have 7 seats (at this stage) 323 should be enough.  But May’s gamble has come up short. She may be able to get support from one or more other parties but that weakens the Conservatives considerably, which is the opposite of what May wanted.

A blatant pitch for more power has backfired. The big lesson for New Zealand is the danger of having self serving snap elections.

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92 Comments

  1. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    I just posted the below in World Watch. Though when I started writing it, the time was just gone 7pm. Re-posting it here:

    Polls close in just under 3 hours, the first exit poll is expected at that point.

    First results are expected at 11pm local time from Sunderland. This is a safe Labour area, so any swing towards the Conservatives here is expected to indicate a good night for them.

    The first key bellwether constituency Nuneaton is expected to announce results at 1am. This seat tends to swing to whoever the overall winner will be, so whoever wins here is likely to win the election.

    Another seat to watch for results at 1am is Darlington. This is Labour, and has been for a while, but is still a marginal seat, if it goes to Conservatives it will signal that Theresa May’s strategy of targeting marginals was successful.

    The results of the first London seat is expected at 1am as well, this is Battersby, and is currently held by Conservatives, but Labour is polling very strongly in London so it is possible it could go to Labour.

    Results for Corbyn’s seat are expected at 2.30am. It is expected to stay labour, but the Guardian suggests that watching for the tone of his victory speech will be an indication of how the night is going. Whether he is triumphant or pitching how to spin a defeat.

    Results from a number of the Scottish seats are expected to come in around 3-4am. A number are expected to swing to Conservatives, so will be interesting to watch, Scotland has been a wilderness for the Conservatives for a number of election cycles now. If they do manage to pick up extra seats here it will be down to their leader Ruth Davidson (pity she isn’t standing for Westminster, she would be a worthy successor to Theresa May).

    Vauxhall is expected to announce their results at about 3.30am. This is a strongly pro-remain seat and the Liberal Democrats have targeted it relentlessly with a view to trying to unseat current Brexit supporting MP Kate Hoey (Labour).

    The most exciting time of the night will be 4-5am when the results from a number of key swing seats is expected.

    Though there may still be seats to declare, a final result should be expected by 7am.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/08/election-night-2017-when-are-the-results-what-time-general

    • Not the Guardian!

      Hi Missy. I have started a dedicated election post: https://yournz.org/2017/06/09/uk-election-results-today/

      • Missy

         /  June 9, 2017

        Yep the Guardian! They are good for something now and then. 🙂

        Yep, saw that. After I posted in World Watch.

        I am planning to sit up until about 11/11.30 – or as late as I can tonight, and then get up about 4am or so, to watch the coverage. It sounds like the majority of results will be in from around 4am. So hopefully I can provide a bit of commentary on what is being said here. Not sure who I will watch for coverage, but likely to listen to the radio mostly as they have some great analysis.

  2. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    Predictions today have been anywhere from 50 to 100 seat majority for Conservatives.

    The number to watch is 208, if Labour cannot manage more than this then it will be the worst result since WWII.

    It will be interesting to see how the Lib Dems do, they have put their campaign on Brexit, but this has not been the issue for many in the electorate, including Remain voting constituencies, and they risk losing seats in Remain voting South West where they hold some seats, and has been traditionally a Lib Dem stronghold. They currently have 9 seats (including Richmond that they won in a by election last year), anything less will be a disaster for them.

    The SNP are predicted to lose up to 12 seats, this will be a blow to Nicola Sturgeon’s push for a second Independence Referendum.

    • Missy

       /  June 9, 2017

  3. Kevin

     /  June 9, 2017

    According to The Standard, Corbyn is set to win by a landslide …

    • PDB

       /  June 9, 2017

      That’s Corbyn done for then…….

      • Missy

         /  June 9, 2017

        We can only hope PDB.

        I must say they have shown a lack of knowledge of the mood in the UK with their posts to date.

        • PDB

           /  June 9, 2017

          He’ll get beaten comfortably enough however the sheer fact he isn’t trounced says more about May than himself.

          • Missy

             /  June 9, 2017

            I agree, it will be a case that May lost it rather than Corbyn won it.

            Exit poll isn’t looking good.

  4. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    Polls have closed.

    Exit Poll:

    Conservatives: 314
    Labour: 266
    Lib Dems: 14
    SNP: 34

    Conservatives would be a Minority Government, or Labour could try to form a coalition.

    It will be interesting to see how this stacks up against actual results.

    • Missy

       /  June 9, 2017

      This shows that the SNP losses will go to Labour, despite other polling suggesting that they would predominantly go to Conservatives.

      The Lib Dems would gain 5 seats, this goes against what many were believing – and the polls showed.

      A hung parliament will not be good.

      • Blazer

         /  June 9, 2017

        ‘This shows that the SNP losses will go to Labour’….do tell.So much for the Tory landslide predicted by so many.

    • Missy

       /  June 9, 2017

      He isn’t the only one. A pollster and other experts on the radio are doubtful on this projection.

  5. Chris

     /  June 9, 2017

    Didn’t the polls get the BREXIT vote so wrong? Where is the difference here?

    • Missy

       /  June 9, 2017

      This is based on what people say was their actual vote, not intended.

      But yes it could still be very wrong, we won’t know until the results come in.

    • PDB

       /  June 9, 2017

      Last election they wrongly predicted a hung parliament did they not?

      • Missy

         /  June 9, 2017

        Yes they did. So there is hope.

        First result expected in about 30 mins, it is safe labour, but the majority may give an idea regarding any swing.

  6. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    76 seats are too close to call in the exit poll.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373

  7. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    Get shopping Kiwi’s, the pound has plummeted.

    Depending how the night goes it could stay like that.

  8. David

     /  June 9, 2017

    May has had a very good go at making Clinton not look the most incompetent woman in politics.

    • PDB

       /  June 9, 2017

      misogyny I tell you….or else the Russians have gone into overdrive.

      • Gezza

         /  June 9, 2017

        In the end it may have just boiled down to the wrong accent, you know.

  9. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    First result from North of England, and Labour have held Newcastle upon Tyne with an increased majority. Conservatives have also gained, the losers being Lib Dems, UKIP, and Greens. Possibly a result of tactical voting to keep the Conservatives out, though why you would bother in a seat with over 13,000 majority I don’t know, Labour were never going to lose the seat.

    Right, I am off to get some sleep, I will be up early to follow the main round of results from about 4am or so.

    • Missy

       /  June 9, 2017

      One last one before sleep. Sunderland has been held by Labour.

      So far the two results in have a smaller swing to Labour than exit poll suggests – pollsters starting to think it may be wrong!

      • Gezza

         /  June 9, 2017

        Righto. You know I’d jump down off the table & catch & kill the mouse for you, eh? Except you’d probably already have done it. Sleep tight. 😘

        • Blazer

           /  June 9, 2017

          *groan*

        • Missy

           /  June 9, 2017

          I don’t kill mice…… I will leave spiders to you on the other hand. 🙂

          • Gezza

             /  June 9, 2017

            Ok, I won’t kill it.

            Here it is. 🐭 What now ? 😀

            • Missy

               /  June 9, 2017

              Awww…. my new pet. 😀

            • Gezza

               /  June 9, 2017

              Do you think it would like these dead spiders ? 😳 🕷🕷

            • Missy

               /  June 9, 2017

              No G, and neither do I.

              Spiders are the one thing I really hate and Kill & dispose of immediately.

            • Gezza

               /  June 9, 2017

              Fair enuff. Me too. Fear not. I have disposed of them outside. 👍

            • Missy

               /  June 9, 2017

              My hero…. 😉

      • Blazer

         /  June 9, 2017

        Labour have taken Canterbury, which has been Tory since 1841.

  10. duperez

     /  June 9, 2017

    Can a lot of time and money be saved by simply doing exit polls and determining results on those?!😊

    • Gezza

       /  June 9, 2017

      😀 Wouldn’t trust em, duperez. Only trust the final count. And even then, only in certain countries. Could be a cliffhanger, but, we’ll see.

  11. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    Wow, this is a catastrophe for Theresa May.

    Interesting watching ITV coverage, and my George Osborne is looking like the cat that got the cream, he certainly is pleased to see the result.

  12. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    Liberal Democrats have done a bit better than expected, they have picked up an extra seat, and on the plus side is Nick Clegg lost his seat!

    Labour have certainly picked up seats from the Conservatives, and it looks like the Conservatives have been saved by Scotland where they have not done well for decades.

    On Scotland, the Westminster Leader of the SNP, Angus Robertson, has lost his seat to the Conservatives as has former SNP leader Alex Salmond.

  13. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    The media are already talking about Theresa May having to go, however, one commentator suggested that she will only go if the party wants her to, and won’t do a Cameron and just resign because the election result did not go her way.

    Boris is being talked up to have another shot at the leadership, however, I wonder about one or two of the backbenchers who appear to be competent and could come through – something George Osborne suggested as well.

    • Missy

       /  June 9, 2017

      Amber Rudd is now a possibility for taking over leadership of the Conservatives if May resigns.

      This was in doubt as her seat was in danger, they have just confirmed her win with a very small majority (there were three recounts).

      • Blazer

         /  June 9, 2017

        she is NO HOPE.

        • Missy

           /  June 9, 2017

          Perhaps instead of writing nonsense Blazer you could say why you believe that.

          (I assume you mean she HAS no hope, not IS).

  14. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    Analysts are suggesting another election in the Autumn.

    Note though that as Sinn Fein don’t take up their seat a majority is only about 323 seats, but this would be a very slim majority for the Conservatives.

  15. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    It looks like Northern Ireland could be the key for how this turns out.

    Sinn Fein have said they won’t end their Westminster Boycott to prop up Jeremy Corbyn.

    The DUP have made some gains in Northern Ireland, and now look to be the deciding party in Westminster. There is speculation that the DUP could go into coalition with the Conservatives to give them the majority needed.

  16. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    Social Media discussion amongst Conservative supporters is interesting in discussions around the leadership.

    General thoughts are:

    1. Boris is a buffoon, but what they don’t mention is he plays well to the electorate, and is able to win.

    2. Amber Rudd – who many rate as next leader – is in a marginal seat so it would be interesting if she stood, but she would be a favourite for the leadership.

    3. The favourite amongst the supporters for leader, Ruth Davidson, is not even a Westminster MP.

    The dilemma.

    Rudd would be favourite I imagine, but being in a marginal seat could cause problems if they go to the polls again.

    • PDB

       /  June 9, 2017

      Watch Andrew Little jump on this result as a guide to the promised land in his election bid……….problem for Little though is that the NZ voting public in general aren’t so fickle.

      I mean really, what are UK voters thinking in voting for Corbyn?? The youth vote obvious out in force with no idea on the damage Corbyn would do to the country if he was ever PM.

      • Missy

         /  June 9, 2017

        I think over at TS they are already saying that NZ needs to go further left.

        I think it isn’t a case of NZ voters being so fickle, more that NZ doesn’t have the voting extreme.

        I would suggest it was the first time voters who improved Corbyn’s result, the one’s that don’t have a sense of history, or understand the damage that will be done by his punitive tax policies. But they are also the one’s that are influenced heavily by social media, and have been somehow led to believe that the MSM is run by evil corporations biased in favour of the Tories and is peddling fake news.

        They were the unknown, and the fact they got out in high numbers is part of the reason it has gone the way it has, but there is another factor if what some of the Conservative activists are saying on Social Media is anything to go by. The Conservative Manifesto did not go down well, and from what some were saying the Conservative Party HQ did not listen to the activists when they were told that some of their ‘safe’ seats were in danger.

        I wonder how much Crosby Textor are to blame as well, some of the way they ran this campaign is very similar to what I have seen in NZ, and it makes me think they only have one plan and they don’t have the ability to change tactics and re-focus the campaign.

        Also, a final factor is the terorrist attacks. The guys that committed the act slipped through the net during Theresa May’s tenure as Home Secretary, I would not be surprised if there was some idea of punishment in the voting, and with some Conservative voters expected to either spoil ballots or abstain, conditions just moved against the Conservatives.

        • PDB

           /  June 9, 2017

          I think a big thing that went against May was her reasoning behind having an early election in the first instance which made many people resentful and they voted accordingly. People generally don’t like having extra elections – especially if its called just for a leader to boost their majority rather than for a constitutional matter.

          • Missy

             /  June 9, 2017

            Yep, I think you are right on that. Also it was seen as arrogant by many of the voters, then the manifesto was seen to be taking the Conservative voters for granted. As a result she got punished.

            The irony is, in punishing Theresa May the voters have now put the UK in a very tenuous position with Brexit negotiations due to start in 11 days, the possibility of a Conservative leadership election, and the possibility of a second General Election (though I think that may not happen).

          • Missy

             /  June 9, 2017

            This pretty much sums it up:

          • David

             /  June 9, 2017

            “I think a big thing that went against May was her reasoning behind having an early election in the first instance which made many people resentful and they voted accordingly.”

            The reasoning, assuming it was about having a strong mandate for Brexit, was sound, it’s just no one really believed May supported Brexit in the first place.

            She then proceeded to be witheringly incompetent. Stating she was going to throw peoples rights out the window because of crimes committed by people she let into the country was just the last straw for many I think.

            • Missy

               /  June 9, 2017

              I think that one about the Human Rights actually played reasonably well to many, if you get past the headlines and actually look at what she was saying it was all stuff they tried to get through in the 2010 Government and the Liberal Democrats blocked it. It wouldn’t have infringed on normal citizens, it was aimed solely at those that were already being watched, and which they had enough evidence to know they were terrorists, but not enough to prosecute. It was around detention (and a lot less than what a lot of people were calling for after London Bridge), and deportations (which at the moment are difficult because of the ECJ and Human Rights Act). Even some in the media who don’t support Theresa May were supporting her changes to the Human Rights Act for Terror suspects.

              The biggest loser for her was the Social Policy, then u-turning on it. That hit her harder than much else. Also, I think the two attacks didn’t help because it gave the opposition the chance to be able to remind people that the police numbers were cut during her tenure as Home Secretary.

              As someone said last night. When people didn’t know Theresa May they liked her, as they got to know her they didn’t like her, but when they didn’t know Corbyn they didn’t like him, but as they got to know him they did.

              She had a very bad campaign, I wonder how much was her and how much was her taking very bad advice and going with that. I think at times she did look a little uncomfortable with the national campaigning at times as well. She is by all accounts very effective and very popular in her constituency.

        • David

           /  June 9, 2017

          “I think over at TS they are already saying that NZ needs to go further left.”

          The irony being May was the most left wing PM in the UK since Callaghan.

          • Missy

             /  June 9, 2017

            Indeed. She was not a true Conservative, which could also have lost her votes.

    • I don’t think Amber is the one. I don’t know exactly why. I’ll think on it.

      Theresa tried defiance but looked white & shaky on Aljaz – the self-assured, stable & strong, attack politics things all bombed big time & don’t work now.

      • Missy

         /  June 9, 2017

        Amber Rudd stood in for Theresa May at the leaders debate and she nailed it, it was after that she started being tipped as the next leader. She has been on point, and very good in all her media outings.

        I don’t think she will do it due to her slim majority, but if it is someone from cabinet she is the best one.

        I personally believe that Ruth Davidson could be the one, but she isn’t a Westminster MP so won’t be eligible for the leaders role. Davidson has turned around the Conservatives in Scotland, something many were thinking was an impossible task.

  17. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    • Missy

       /  June 9, 2017

      Their website has crashed.

      • PDB

         /  June 9, 2017

        At the moment the Conservatives need 4 more seats of the eight remaining to get a majority if they team up with DUP……

  18. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    Final results from Scotland:

    SNP: 35 (worse than expected)
    Cons: 13 (better than expected)
    Lab: 7
    Lib Dems: 4

    • PDB

       /  June 9, 2017

      Exit poll was pretty accurate as it stands overall…….

      • Missy

         /  June 9, 2017

        yep it was. I think the UK GE exit polls are generally pretty accurate. It also looks like YouGov were a lot more accurate than previously in their polling.

  19. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    • Missy

       /  June 9, 2017

      The vagaries of FPP, 43% of the vote and did worse than the guy who got 36%

      • David

         /  June 9, 2017

        Labour has a 40 seat boundary advantage that should have been dealt with years ago.

  20. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    • Interesting. Health could be a big issue here, but we don’t have anything like Brexit.

      • Missy

         /  June 9, 2017

        I think also in the last couple of days security became an issue for many as well, especially in London.

  21. Mike Hosking was a wee way out with his confidence.

    So despite the fact the headline writers have done their best to make this thing sound gripping, no one votes for economic chaos, so the conservatives will win, and I wouldn’t even rule out a big win despite the polls.

    May gets her mandate on Brexit, May actually gets elected as PM, having of course merely been appointed post-David Cameron.

    And May gets to deliver a Britain free of Europe, which history will show is one of the best decisions they ever made.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?objectid=11871401

    He and many others.

    • Missy

       /  June 9, 2017

      Most were out, including UK Labour if reports yesterday were anything to go by.

    • duperez

       /  June 9, 2017

      I love how, in an age of being straight-up and telling it like is, a couple of words can get the mind a-working.
      “Mike Hosking was a wee way out” rather than “Mike Hosking was wrong.” Which would be wrong because I’m informed he’s never wrong.`
      `’Wee”? So a response in context is to say to him on his astute prediction, “Piss off”? 😊

  22. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    Reports are that Theresa May won’t resign, and she is in talks with the DUP to form a coalition. The DUP reportedly have no red lines and are willing to work with anyone except Corbyn. I would say that they won’t work with Corbyn due to his connections to the IRA.

    • From the BBC:

      All of a sudden the Democratic Unionist Party’s Brexit policy is very important.

      Until now Theresa May had argued that Brexit means Brexit – in other words leaving the single market, Customs Union, ending free movement and being free of the judgements of the European Court of Justice.

      But although the DUP backed Brexit they do not want a hard border with the Republic of Ireland, for a whole host of reasons including the huge amount of cross-border trade that exists and the open border with the South – one of the real successes of the peace process in Northern Ireland.

      But that is more difficult to achieve if we leave the Single Market and the Customs Union.

      The DUP manifesto is rather ambiguous on this issue, calling for “Progress on new free trade deals with the rest of the world and… a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement with the European Union”.

      But it also calls for the ability to opt-in to EU funds where proven to be cost-effective, arrangements to facilitate ease of movement of people, goods and services, and continued participation in funding programmes such as research funding.

      If the government needs the votes of the DUP to stay in power, the negotiators on both sides – the EU and UK – will now have to put special emphasis on how to give the DUP and Northern Ireland what they want and that makes a “softer” form of Brexit more likely.

  23. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    Theresa May is going to Buckingham Palace at 1230, this indicates she either has some form of agreement with the DUP, or she will seek permission to form a minority Government.

  24. Missy

     /  June 9, 2017

    Paul Nuttall, leader of UKIP has resigned. Looks like Nigel Farage may be looking for a comeback.

  1. UK election results today – NZ Conservative Coalition