Newshub/Reid Research poll

The latest (June 2017) Newshub/Reid Research poll:

  • National 47.4% (up from 47.1)
  • Labour 26.4% (down from 30.6)
  • Greens 12.5% (up from 11.2)
  • NZ First 9.4% (up from 7.6)

Everybody will be happy enough with that three months out from the election, except for Labour.

Newshub is promoting:

But NZ First has been higher in other polls.

That doesn’t look flash for Labour either. It’s the lowest Little has been in a Newshub/RR poll.

Newshub’s headline:  Labour crumbles, falling towards defeat

Their last poll was in March: Newshub poll – Ardern surges

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24 Comments

  1. PDB

     /  June 15, 2017

    Labour needs to hope their immigration policy (released after this poll was taken) gets some cut through. However it didn’t last long in the headlines so little chance of that.

    Little needs a bit of a buffer because he is a poor communicator/can’t think on his feet and on the election campaign/ in the debates he may struggle.

    • Gezza

       /  June 15, 2017

      And his other problem is – who can get to front on any other issues if he can’t get ‘cut through’? No one I can think of. I just can’t see them streaking in to a sudden winning spurt on anything. Even on housing it’s “we’ve got this Plan” against National’s “it won’t work, we’ve got this better one”.

      • PDB

         /  June 15, 2017

        I still get the impression that the bulk of Labour MP’s aren’t too fussed if Little loses……..plans probably underway already by these folk to dump Little post-election and look at taking the govt benches in 2020.

        • Gezza

           /  June 15, 2017

          I think you’re probably right. I can’t honestly see anyone else in the wings with obvious leadership potential who could step up & take reins after the coup de grace either though. Their pool of Parliamentary talent could be even smaller.

          • PDB

             /  June 15, 2017

            Yes – Jacinda seems to be the unwilling proposed leader with Robertson pulling the strings as her deputy & finance minister. Personally I don’t think she’s got the goods, especially after her recent NEXT magazine article.

            Ardern: “When you’re a bit of an anxious person, and you constantly worry about things, there comes a point where certain jobs are just really bad for you.”

  2. Gezza

     /  June 15, 2017

    I wouldn’t leave Andy alone with a revolver.

    • Gezza

       /  June 15, 2017

      Oh FFS. Metaphorically speaking !
      Though fair enuff I guess, it ‘s not the time to using a firearms analogy I guess.

      What I’m getting at is these polls must be bloody demoralising. All he & his supporters can do is put on a brave face & project optimism – something he’s not good at – projecting anything. They’re 3 months out from an election & they’ve probably fired all their best shots. Hard to see how their Immigration policy alone is going to turn things around completely for them in the next month. The polls for his party & himself personally are continually terrible, basically.

  3. 47% —– right in the trend channel. Just likes its been for a number of years…. Wonder if we will see it hold through the election at this level

    • patupaiarehe

       /  June 15, 2017

      I do wonder Dave, if that level of support is not because people like National, but more because they don’t like any of the alternatives.

      • I think that’s largely it. No clear alternative.

        • patupaiarehe

           /  June 15, 2017

          I believe it’s referred to as TINA, Pete. There is though, unfortunately only around 10% of voters realize this. 😉

      • High Flying Duck

         /  June 15, 2017

        If people didn’t like National they would vote for change.
        It is very unusual for a government to hold so much support after almost 3 terms.
        The undecideds would be growing if there was discontent.
        For all the froth I think in general people are doing well and don’t see a need for change.
        The Nats are a long way from perfect but they aren’t doing a great deal wrong.

        • patupaiarehe

           /  June 15, 2017

          One could also say, HFD, that if there was a credible alternative to National (or if people realized that there already is), then National might just ‘enjoy’ an even worse poll result than Labour…

          • High Flying Duck

             /  June 16, 2017

            But Bill English is improving his preferred PM stats and the National vote is up slightly.
            “if the people realised…” is the loser mantra Labour have been using for coming up a decade now. The thing is the people DO ‘realise’ – and they vote accordingly.
            The Nats do enough around the fringes to keep half of the people happy most of the time.
            Most expert and media comments after the last budget were around the fact there was nowhere for the opposition to go because it covered all the bases.
            National are unashamedly centrist and try to make policy gains slowly and round the fringes. It has been a winning strategy to date and we shall see if it carries on in September.
            But for now there is no credible alternative and people are generally reasonably satisfied with their lot.

            • patupaiarehe

               /  June 16, 2017

              Some people are happy with their lot HFD, but many aren’t. Ask any smoker how happy they are about paying over $1 per cigarette. Ask a dairy owner, who has been robbed at knifepoint, how happy he is about the price of cigarettes too. Ask any young Kiwi, who has been turned down for a job at his local servo, how happy he is to be served by foreigners when he buys petrol there. Ask his parents as well… Ask a young couple, who are trying to buy their first home.
              You are correct about one thing though. Most people don’t see an alternative. Yet…

            • Gezza

               /  June 16, 2017

              Ask any young Kiwi, who has been turned down for a job at his local servo, how happy he is to be served by foreigners when he buys petrol there.

              Isn’t happening here. Local BP & Z servos employ a mix of ethnicities & ages, including young Pakeha & young Maori. They all seem to have a great attitude, especially if you talk to them or need assistance (like ma) – or they’re not there very long.

              How many such cases like that one are happening & who’s doing the staff recruiting?

      • I think Patu there is some truth in that – the alternatives are not that great really are they? National position as safe hands. We have had a reasonable run over the last 8-9 years particularly when you look at what Europe has been through post GFC. So a chunk of electors think – why throw away what we have for half thought through concepts put up by others. sounds reasonable doesn’t it…

        • patupaiarehe

           /  June 15, 2017

          Not ‘safe hands’, ‘safer hands’ than a Labour/Green coalition…

  4. lurcher1948

     /  June 15, 2017

    Don’t worry Andy the British labor party were supposed to get thrashed in their elections and we all know how that turned out…

    • PDB

       /  June 15, 2017

      When all at sea you have to cling onto anything to have a chance of survival Lurch……..in your case dead-wood.

  5. David

     /  June 15, 2017

    Wonder what the political geniuses running WO will make of National and English,s solid results. The beltway pundits scoffing at English trying too hard backfiring was a crappy call as well.

    • Like the Double Standard, Slater is not known for highlighting anything that goes off message