Party vote predictions

In response the the Newshub poll on Thursday Rob Jones (@cossackstomper) predicted (or stirred):

Greens will be 10 percent on Election day. Labour 28percent. Winston 10 percent

I think that trying to predict a specific party vote, especially over three months out from the election, is poke in the dark pointless.

Elections in the US and UK have shown how much actual vote counts can move from polls.

I think that there’s a wide range of possibilities for our election, probably within ranges like this:

  • National 40-48% (2008 – 44.93%, 2011 – 47.31%, 2014 – 47.04%
    Very unlikely they will get much if anything more than the last three elections. They could slump but I think something drastic would have to happen for them to drop below 40%.
  • Labour 20-35% (2008 – 33.99%, 2011 – 27.38%, 2014 – 25.13%)
    The biggest unknown – they could get a bit of a boost during the campaign if Andrew Little somehow finds a way to connect but more than 35 looks like miracle territory, but they could just as easily slump.
  • Greens 10-15% (2008 – 6.72% , 2011 – 11.06%, 2014 – 10.7%)
    The should be able to hold up their vote but will struggle to grow it much unless they benefit from a Labour collapse.
  • NZ First 5-15% (2008 – 4.07% , 2011 – 6.59% , 2014 – 8.66%)
    They look likely to improve on their last result if nothing major goes wrong with Peters and Shane Jones doesn’t turn potential voters off, and they also benefit from a lack of a credible alternative to National, but how much they grow will depend a lot on Labour’s gains or losses.
  • TOP 1-5%
    I think they are good for at least a percent or two but will struggle to get over 4%. It really depends on whether they can get some high profile candidates and a committed and capable leader that the media takes seriously.
  • Maori Party 1-4% (2008 – 2.39%, 2011 – 1.43%, 2014 – 1.32%)
    The trend doesn’t look good and if Labour succeeds in the Maori vote battle they may lose their one list MP, but they could benefit if Labour falls over and gain a seat or two.
  • ACT 0.5-2%  (2008 – 3.65%, 2011 – 1.07%, 2014 – 0.69)
    There support fell off through major upheavals. David Seymour has done a good job of steadying and re-establishing  so they have a good chance of improving, especially if National sheds support, but probably not by a lot. They should be very pleased if they manage to get another MP or two.
  • Mana Party 0.5-1% (2011 – 1.08%, 2014 – 1.42% with Internet Party)
    They should have some core support still but it’s hard to see much more than a fraction of a percent.
  • United Future 0.1-0.5% (2008 – 0.87%, 2011 – 0.6%, 2014 – 0.22)
    The trend looks likely to continue unless Damian Light manages to be taken seriously by media and the look like more than one person.
  • Conservative Party 0.1-1% (2011 – 2.65%, 2014 – 3.97)
    There will be some core votes but Colin Craig has ensured they won’t get a lot.

There are two key and related things – whether National can maintain their support or shed votes, and whether Labour recovers some support or slumps even further.

The small parties will as usual pick up the crumbs, although there could be some sizeable crumbs available.

UPDATE: Coincidentally this update today:

 

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11 Comments

  1. Zedd

     /  June 17, 2017

    alcp 1-5%?

    Reply
    • I doubt it. I think their days are done as a political player, especially if TOP can pick up some of their support as well as candidates.

      Reply
      • you’re probably right PG, but alcp has one thing over the others ‘its their main(only) priority’ the others have ‘bigger fish to fry.. first’ they may get to cannabis one day ….or maybe not ?

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  June 17, 2017

          I’m seeing good signs the momentum is building Zedd. Too slowly still perhaps, but I feel a warm breeze of what may soon be the winds of change.

          Reply
          • Anonymous Coward

             /  June 17, 2017

            I was at a party a few months ago that had three of the local cops at it. I brought up marijuana law reform and they were horrified and described why they hated dope, what they spoke about sounded more like heroin than hooch – it was like they’d got their drug education from watching Reefer Madness. Sad.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  June 17, 2017

              Yeah. I dunno. Might be a regional thing or local influences. In one of the bands I was in 20 years ago, the lead singer & guitaist (he was bloody good) was a mid-level Maori cop, 5 years younger than me. He just said, ‘I don’t care if you’re doing dope, just don’t bring it into the band.’

  2. Ray

     /  June 17, 2017

    I had the same lecture from a Senior Sergeant, you have to admit they do deal with the aftermath rather more than you or I do.
    Personally I would decriminalise the lot even though I have never used it and cannot imagine ever will!

    Reply
  3. 20-35% window for Labour….. really?

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  June 17, 2017

      35% is to cover the very slim possibility that Bill English goes on a murderous rampage of innocent school children just prior to the election.

      Reply
      • It’s not that far above where Labour has polled in the last year so could happen.

        Roy Morgan September 2016 – 33.5%
        Newshub/Reid Research August 2016 – 32.7%
        Newshub/Reid Research March 2017 – 30.8%
        1 News/Colmar Brunton February, March and May 2017 – 30%

        And Labour have claimed 32% in their latest internal UMR poll.

        So somewhere in the thirties is quite possible.

        Reply
  1. Party vote predictions — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition

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