Poll good for ACT in Epsom

David Seymour has a comfortable lead in an ACT poll on the Epsom electorate:

  • David Seymour (ACT) 46%
  • Paul Goldsmith (National) 30%
  • David Parker (Labour) 11%
  • Julie Anne Genter (Greens) 11%

These are all close to within margin of error range of the 2014 election result.

From ACT:  David Seymour comfortably ahead in Epsom poll

A recent Curia poll conducted of 750 voters (+/- 3.5% margin of error), in the Epsom electorate from 21-28 May shows incumbent Epsom MP and ACT Party Leader, David Seymour, ahead with a strong 16-point lead.

When asked “With your electorate vote, which of these candidates would you vote to be the electorate MP for Epsom”, David Seymour led on 46 per cent of decided voters, with National’s Paul Goldsmith on 30 per cent, and both Labour’s David Parker and Green’s Julie-Anne Genter* following on 11 per cent.

*Since the poll was conducted, the Green Party have nominated Barry Coates as the Epsom candidate.

That’s a handy lead for Seymour at this stage. I think he’s done well this term to come from nowhere to establish a profile in Wellington and presumably in Epsom, and to at least stop the rot in the ACT Party.

He wasn’t well known in 2014 but won Epsom, with some help from National.

  • David Seymour (ACT) 43.08%
  • Paul Goldsmith (National) 31.61%
  • Michael Wood (Labour) 9.36%
  • Julie Anne Genter (Greens) 8.15%

Michael Wood has since won the Mt Roskill by-election. Interesting to see David Parker standing for Labour again, he stood there in 2011 and got 10.45% of the vote.

Julie Anne Genter stood in the Mt Albert by-election earlier this year and that is listed as her electorate on the Green website so I presume she is staying there.

There’s a bit of musical chairs going on. Barry Coates stood in Mt Roskill last election against Phil Goff, getting 5.04% of the electorate vote.

With Epsom looking likely for Seymour he is looking at trying to lift the ACT party vote.

“This poll result is important, as it shows that every party vote for ACT will count. Only a Party vote for ACT will keep Winston Peters out of power and ensure a stable centre–right government for the next three years.”

Another ACT MP or two could make a difference.

ACT push this in their latest Free Press – 19/06/2017:

EVERY PARTY VOTE FOR ACT WILL COUNT
Germany has had MMP for 70 years, but it is reported to be even less well understood there than here. The lesson is that ACT must constantly remind supporters how our convoluted voting system works. If ACT wins Epsom then the party does not need to meet the five per cent threshold. 1.3 per cent of the party vote will elect a second MP.

ACT AS CRITICAL TO THE OUTCOME AS EVER
The latest public poll, from Newshub, has ACT at 0.9 per cent of the vote, and the current governing parties of ACT, National, United Future, and the Māori Party with a majority of one. ACT picking up an extra seat could be definitive to the election outcome. There are many reasons the socialists hate ACT and chief among them is that we keep on keeping them out of Government. 1998 (when the Bolger coalition imploded), 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2017 to come.

AIMING HIGHER
1.3 per cent would get ACT another MP, but 2.1 would get us three. 2.8 per cent would get us four, and 3.5 would get us five. ACT’s current polling is comparable to the same point in the cycle during 2008, when five MPs were elected. Electing five MPs would give the kind of leverage ACT enjoyed in that parliamentary term.

In August 2008 ACT was polling 0.6-2.3%. They got 3.65% in the election (Rodney Hide was their successful Epsom candidate).

In August 2011 ACT was polling 1.1-2.2%. They got 1.07% in the election (John Banks was their successful Epsom candidate)

In June 2014 ACT was polling 0.7-1.0%. They got 0.69% in the election.

Seymour was able to concentrate on campaigning in Epsom while party leader Jamie Whyte campaigned for the party nationally, but had trouble connecting.

This year Seymour will have to split his time and efforts between Epsom and national campaigning. Success with ACT’s party vote will also depend on which other candidates ACT can come up with.

7 Comments

  1. Gezza

     /  June 19, 2017

    There’s something endearing about young Mr Seymour, beyond the boyish good looks that probably make some kittenly matrons swoon. I don’t think he’s a fool – he’s had a few sensible things to say this term. Looks like he’ll be going back in from that result.

    Can’t see ACT picking up any more members though.

    Parker’s poll’s a heck of a lot lower than I expected, although to be fair he’s never impressed me. Maybe he can’t get the chance to? Too much focus on the barker?

    • PDB

       /  June 19, 2017

      He’ll need to do more about lifting ACT’s party vote – even in Epsom in 2014 it was under 3% from memory.

    • Gezza

       /  June 20, 2017

      Hmm. Good move or bad move? 🤔
      Personal attack campaigns put me off thos mounting them.
      It’s almost a visceral reaction. But probably comes from the time & place & way I was raised & tended I imagine. One of those things like “I owe you one, m8”, if they’ve done you a favour.

      Feels like hitting below the belt. Playing the man, not the ball. I don’t like it, Sir. Don’t like it. Not cricket.

      • Being a constituent of Seymour, I can assure you WRP is the type of man a majority of us dislike. He’s fair game Gezza, he has a not inconsiderable history of personal abuse himself.

        • Gezza

           /  June 20, 2017

          Morning trav. Two-inch nails & coffe for breakfast again?

          That did occur to me after I posted it, but I rather hoped no one would bring it up. Thing is, as far as moi is is concerned:
          1. I doan like it when he does it either, and
          2. The blighter gets away with it to some extent because he can never stop himself from grinning & having a giggle when he does it, so everyone knows he’s just being a dick as usual.

          Being attacked by WRP is only not a joke when you’re a public servant, or a private individual, who can’t, or can’t afford to, fight back.

          • Gezza

             /  June 20, 2017

            I’ll just add, if I may – that personally, I’d recommend letting Winston wallow in the mud on his own – rather than getting down there in it with him.

            The moral high ground often offers the best defensive & offensive territorial position.