1 News Colmar Brunton poll

The first poll after the National Barclay and Labour intern issues is out, with both National and Labour down a bit, and Greens and NZ First up a bit.

It’s not bad for National but looking dire for Labour.

  • National 47% (down from 49)
  • Labour 27% (down from 29)
  • Greens 11% (up from 9)
  • NZ First 11% (up from 9)
  • Maori Party 2% (up from 1)
  • Opportunities Party  1% (Steady)

Labour+Greens=38% – is that why Metiria Turei is openly competing with NZ First without caring about how a rift will affect Labour?

The Maori Party seem to be benefiting from Labour’s loss of support and could be good for 2-3 seats on that sort polling.

TOP will be encouraged but need a lot more.

  • Refuse to answer 5%
  • Undecided 15% (up from 13)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 26% (down from 29)
  • Winston Peters 11% (up from 7)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6% (steady)
  • Andrew Little 5% (down from 8)

That’s not great for English but awful for Little. Peters has as much support as Little and Ardern combined.

Those are rounded, the detailed results may take a while. Polling conducted 1-5 July, sample size of 1007 eligible voters.  Margin of error about +/-3.1%

1 News: Andrew Little drops to fourth as preferred PM in latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll that sees both major parties take a hit

 

29 Comments

  1. Corky

     /  July 10, 2017

    Like I said last year, Labour has a chance to knife Andy before the election. They didn’t. Tough.

    I wonder if we may wind up with a hung parliament, or stranger still, a Labour coalition government?

    Everything will depend on what National is wiling to concede, policy wise, in negotiation talks.

  2. chrism56

     /  July 10, 2017

    To be true to form, doesn’t Labour now need to come out with the news that their secret poll shows support has doubled and they are actually ahead of National? Or Blazer come along with a stupid ad hom because his braincells can’t comprehend that Labour isn’t popular?

    • Corky

       /  July 10, 2017

      Think of the Labour peons at The Standard.

      • Have pity Corky. They’ve turned themselves inside out over the past three years and what have they got? Zero percentage increase and a leader three points lower in rating. In retrospect they’d have been better sticking with silent T and consolidating the hate vote he inspired.

  3. Tipene

     /  July 10, 2017

    Prediction: Watch National elect not to stand a candidate in Whangarei.

    • Chuck Bird

       /  July 10, 2017

      Why would they do that?

    • The way things are shaping up all parties will be going hard out for as many electorates and party votes as they can. Electorate campaigning is an important part of getting party votes.

      If National show any sign of trying to help NZF I think they will be punished.

  4. sorethumb

     /  July 10, 2017

    Shy Tory effect NZ First.

    • Yes, how many will get in the ballot box and think three headed hydra or steady as she goes.

  5. Alan Wilkinson

     /  July 10, 2017

    Only Little’s preferred PM changes look statistically significant.

    • Corky

       /  July 10, 2017

      Poor old Andy..everyones kicking bag. He should have known he doesn’t have the goods.

  6. MaureenW

     /  July 10, 2017

    Andrew Little – Preferred Prime Minister 5 percent. Has there in recent times been a lower-ranked preferred PM who is leader of the main opposition party?

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  July 10, 2017

      So Little is only 1/8th as popular as Trump. You wouldn’t think so from the media, would you?

      • Pretty unbelievable polling result for Labour and as for Little, that’s unprecedented. He’s been leader for 2 and a half years and no cut through. It’s clear that they’ll get no more this election than they did in 2014

      • Gezza

         /  July 11, 2017

        What makes you think Andrew Little is ‘popular with the media’ Al?
        And what do you mean by ‘popular’?

        He doesn’t seem to me to feature in the media any more often than the PM, or Turei, say.

        He appears marginally more often than Peters, it seems to me, but Peters I think gets more bang for his buck profile-wise & getting his (often-controversial) point across when does appear. I’d say Winston was popular with the media, but it depends what you mean by popular.

        Seems to me the media give Andrew Little about an appropriate level of coverage for the leader of the hitherto most prominent & traditional alternative party of government. But that Little frequently muffs it & that his media appearances, especially on tv & sometimes radio, do him & his party more harm than good. He hardly ever comes across well to me on the telly, barking at very passing car, yet again, & looking & sounding out of touch & unconvincing as a future PM.

        It might be in the eye of the beholder, but I always feel that 1ewes (inadequate) 15 second sound bytes of him are almost designed to make him look silly.

        • There were signs the media largely wrote Little off last year and signs now are they haven’t changed their minds.

          • Any chance of Labour and the Greens officially amalgamating?

            Is it possible or is the Union based party membership too blokesy to embrace the scope of identity politicking at the Greens? Likewise, do Greens find the blokesy, factory floor reality of Labour out of their comfort zone

            Could the Unions mitigate the raft of anti industry, economically disadvantageous measures the Greens promote in all policy?

            Labour – Shared leadership a step too far. Gender balance more lip service to factions rather than deeply held position

            That’s a no from me. I think Labour NZ are dead without a messiah.

            .

            • I don’t think there’s any chance. Greens look like they are distancing themselves and going for whatever votes they \can get on their own. They won’t want Labour to drag them down.

            • Gezza

               /  July 11, 2017

              I think Metiria’s strategy is risky. It’ll be interesting to see what the next poll shows. I don’t see too many Labour voters defecting to Greens – and bagging NZ First puzzles me. What does she think will happen?

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  July 11, 2017

          @G: Media treatment of his mad enrollment campaign relative to their desire to take down English and Trump.

          • Gezza

             /  July 11, 2017

            Oh, ok. Fair enuff. Pete & other commenters here certainly did a lot more to highlight the inconsistencies & inappropriatenesses of that shambles, yes. Dunni why they gave him such an easy ride there.

    • Conspiratoor

       /  July 11, 2017

      Mrs 2%, and look what happened to her. So there’s hope for our man Andy

      • Gezza

         /  July 11, 2017

        Bugga! Missed again – see my comment below, c. And Insert the missing ‘come’ before from.

  7. Gezza

     /  July 11, 2017

    Shit. where did you from? You weren’t here a minute ago when the field was clear.
    Mrs 2%, was that Helen?

    • Briefly – certainly not after 2.5 years of leadership

      • Gezza

         /  July 11, 2017

        Thanks trav. c must’ve scuttled off when he saw you were here. Still probably embarassed about thinking you were a bloke after all this time.

        • Everyone used to think I was and I did nothing to dispel it. C. might have missed the bit where I inadvertently outed myself.

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  July 11, 2017

          Lovely photo, trav. Best if bosses can also think like a worker though.

  8. lurcher1948

     /  July 11, 2017

    If only you could trust polls, Hillary did and see how that turned out