Part of a UMR poll

A bizarre news report from Newshub – they have reported on a leaked UMR poll (Labour’s internal pollster) but have only given some of the results Updated with more details):

  • National 42% (previous 6 results 43, 43, 42, 44, 42, 43)
  • Labour 26% (previous 6 results 28, 28, 34, 30, 32, 29)
  • NZ First 14% (previous 6 results 12, 12, 9, 9, 9, 11)
  • Greens 13% (previous 6 results 13, 12, 13, 13, 13, 12)

The story was about how bad it was for Labour, but this is similar to the Colmar Brunton poll where they were 27% – see The actual Colmar Brunton poll results.

Greens are not out of the ordinary on 13%, they were 11 in the Colmar poll.

What will put a shiver up the spine of other parties and many voters is the NZ First result, 14% (Colmar was 11%) – this is a big rise for them.

And not mentioned either – these three parties total 53% so National must be well below the 47% of Colmar, which should be a concern for them. Perhaps Patrick Gower is saving that for another story.

UPDATE – online now:  Labour’s confidential polling leaked

This has more details, including National:

  • National 42%
  • Labour 26% (34% in May)
  • NZ First 14% (9% in May)
  • Greens 13%

They don’t state the movement for National and Greens, but that is an alarming result for National.

But they have this graphic:

Oddly National have been in the low forties since March. They have not been consistently that low in any other poll.

And for Labour the drop isn’t that dramatic, the 34% in May looks like an outlier.

24 Comments

  1. sorethumb

     /  July 14, 2017

    And there’s the (ahem) shy Nz Frist affect.

  2. Corky

     /  July 14, 2017

    ”A bizarre news report from Newshub – they have reported on a leaked UMR poll.”

    A genuine leak or a ‘staged’ leak?

    • Quite suspicious – it looked like it was a hit targeted at Labour and for the benefit of NZ First, with National suppressed.

  3. PDB

     /  July 14, 2017

    PG: “They don’t state the movement for National and Greens, but that is an alarming result for National.”

    No it isn’t – it goes against every other poll out there – UMR is a joke.

  4. UMR – giving Labour the National result they want since…….

    They may be right – and if they are then all the other polls are wrong. But seeing those numbers helps explains Labour party peoples ongoing we are close to winning optimism….

    • PDB

       /  July 14, 2017

      UMR always overstate Labour support – does that mean they are really 22% or less?

      • Maybe…. but long time to run to the only poll that counts and as usual there is a big chunk survey who won’t express an opinion or don’t know

        Personally I would love to see Labour form a government…. it would last 3 years and then they would be gone for another 9. National should just throw the match!

  5. Alan Wilkinson

     /  July 14, 2017

    Of course a real journalist would have put that in context of all the other polls and the variability of this one. That 34% looks pretty inexcusable and the 32% isn’t much better. Given those wobbles the 26% may simply be random inaccuracy. Winston’s 14% likewise.

    Gower specialises in making mountains out of molehills instead – generally at high volume.

  6. Tipene

     /  July 14, 2017

    Who has an interest in leaking this information?

    Who benefits from its disclosure?

    Who is about to roll Andrew Little?

    I suspect the horse is about to bolt.

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  July 14, 2017

      The only person that benefits from it is Winston. Unless someone from Labour is jumping ship I don’t see that as a motive. Anyone about to roll Little would be shooting themselves in the foot, hand and head to take over just in time to lose the election.

      Who has an interest? Anyone with a grudge against Little or his union backers. Probably about three-quarters of the Labour party.

      • Corky

         /  July 14, 2017

        Faction against faction against faction against faction…so many blades glinting in the twilight of impending doom.

  7. patupaiarehe

     /  July 14, 2017

    What will put a shiver up the spine of other parties and many voters is the NZ First result, 14% (Colmar was 11%) – this is a big rise for them.

    Hardly surprising, to me anyway. Watch them gain at least another 5%, before mid September…

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  July 14, 2017

      So who is now voting for them, patu?

      • patupaiarehe

         /  July 14, 2017

        Just me Alan, and absolutely no-one else… 😛

        • PDB

           /  July 14, 2017

          8% in today’s Roy Morgan – in reality they are currently 10-11%.

          • patupaiarehe

             /  July 14, 2017

            In reality, we will find out in September… 😉

    • Conspiratoor

       /  July 14, 2017

      It wont be 19% pat. I’ve been picking 15% to 17% on election day for a while now, but you wont see it reflected in a poll due to the same phenomenon that corrupted the US polls. And Roy Morgan can’t even bring themselves to include the elephant in the room as one of the issues concerning kiwis …so they are essentially worthless

    • PDB

       /  July 14, 2017

      Roy Morgan tends to have National up and down as well – will be interesting to see the next poll that takes in all of the recent internal bickering of the Greens-NZL First.

    • PDB

       /  July 14, 2017

      NZL First dropping to 8% is nonsense as well…….

  8. and what is TOP doing

  9. sorethumb

     /  July 15, 2017

    mickey savage at the standard
    Lots of news today.  UMR’s polling may or may not have been leaked and it may suggest that Labour is at 26%, the Greens at 14%  and National is at 42%.  And on the same day the latest Roy Morgan poll comes out suggesting that Labour is at 30.5%, the Greens are at 13.5% and National is at 43%.  Of course the social media is all agog at how bad Labour is doing but to be honest this is really annoying me.
    ……..
    Except the greens aren’t on 14% they have to get down on to the *lower* step so Winston can stand *above* them. Mickey doesn’t want to mention NZ First.

  10. lurcher1948

     /  July 15, 2017

    WOW real fake news

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