National 43% in latest RM poll

National are back down to 43% in the latest Roy Morgan poll, similar to the 42% in the UMR poll covering a similar period – see Part of a UMR poll. However NZ First are on 8%, in contrast to their 14% in the UMR poll.

This poll was taken after all the Todd Barclay publicity (which continues), after the Labour intern issue broke but as it emerged (so it won’t have fully impacted), and before this week’s flare up between Greens and NZ First.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” 

  • National 43% (Jan  46, Feb 48, Mar 43.5, Apr 43, May 43, Jun 46.5)
  • Labour 30.5% (Jan 27, Feb 26, Mar 29.5, Apr 29.5, May 28.5, Jun 25.5)
  • Greens 13.5% (Jan 12.5, Feb 13, Mar 14.5, Apr 13, May 14, Jun 14)
  • NZ First 8% (Jan 9, Feb 8, Mar 7.5, Apr 10.5, May 10, Jun 9)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (Jan 2, Feb 2, Mar 2, Apr 1, May 1.5, Jun 1.5)
  • ACT Party 1% (Jan 0.5, Feb 1, Mar 0.5, Apr 1.5, May 1, Jun 1)
  • United Future 0% (no change)
  • Conservatives 0% (no change)
  • Mana Party 0% (down from 0.5)
  • Internet Party 0% (no change)
  • Other 2.5% (Jan 2, Feb 2, Mar 1, Apr 1, May 1.5, Jun 2)

Of all electors surveyed 8.5% (up 2%) didn’t name a party.

This was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 868 electors during June 26 – July 9, 2017.

This leaves National and current support parties well short of a majority, on about the same level of support as Labour + Greens.

NZ First are in a position of choice, but Greens and NZ First showed their incompatibility this week.

RoyMorgan2017-July

Polling was done between June 26 and July 9.

 

 

33 Comments

  1. Alan Wilkinson

     /  July 15, 2017

    The Labour figures for the last two polls don’t match that chart?

    • I mistyped the last one, now corrected.

      • Kitty Catkin

         /  July 15, 2017

        Shame on 3 for dishonourably using the leaked poll, even if it was much ado about nothing. Its being leaked doesn’t make it all right to use it.

        • Kitty Catkin

           /  July 15, 2017

          How can even the PDT think that this dishonest act was all right ? I will never vote Labour and am now fan of Andrew Little, but I was disgusted by the action.

  2. Chuck Bird

     /  July 15, 2017

    The Roy Morgan was taken before all the Greens internal squabbling.

  3. Tipene

     /  July 15, 2017

    The above poll appears to indicate that NZ voters are done with minor parties in the main.

    The 5% threshold is just too high a hurdle to jump for minor parties, and the fear of the “wasted vote” is now firmly entrenched, if it wasn’t entrenched before in the minds of the voter.

    However, 3 of the above minor parties have electorate seats – so why are they not garnering more support?

    Could it be because they are parties that are not relying on voter support, but rather relying on the electoral enablement and permission of National to be “support parties”, and voters know that a safety net exists for these parties that does not require them?

    • The 5% threshold is a very high hurdle, deliberately so, imposed/left in place by the larger parties to protect their power (including the Greens who claim to value democratic processes).

      But support for small parties is typically very low through a term and only bumps up (for some) close to an election.

      With the current situation I think there’s a chance TOP could suddenly come into the reckoning. Or they could get ignored amongst all the noise.

      • Pete Kane

         /  July 15, 2017

        I just wonder if TOP have let themselves down in not having run a pure name (more than brand per se) campaign. Crude I know, and with risk, but failure to have done so is showing. Maybe not too late?

        • Pete Kane

           /  July 15, 2017

          Sorry – meant to say name recognition campaign.

          • Kitty Catkin

             /  July 15, 2017

            TOP is a bit gimmicky. It could stand for anything.

            I can’t think of a name, I must admit-it must be very difficult. All the good, memorable ones have gone.

            All the good colour schemes have gone, too.

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  July 15, 2017

              Opportunity could be anything, too. Opportunity shop party-that’s the only place we will be able to afford if his policies came in.

              TOP also sounds like other things-TOPS work schemes-.TOP sounds to me like an acronym for a government work scheme

  4. David

     /  July 15, 2017

    RM with its usual volatility. I get polled by UMR and their who would you vote for is asked after they talk about in equality, poverty, water quality, corporates not paying tax etc. and given they are Labours pollsters I am cautious of their results.

    • Kitty Catkin

       /  July 15, 2017

      ARE they ? I ususally try to do polls unless I have a good reason not to be able to, as I was a pollster myself once, but if UMR ring, it will ‘be a really bad time, I’m sorry.’

      Thank you for that 🙂

  5. What Intern scandal? The one the press didn’t want to cover so most people outside of political tragics like the readers of this blog have virtual zero exposure too?

    As opposed to the Barclay hit given max coverage?

    And the media wonder why they are so distrusted….

    National should retire to the opposition benches unless they can govern with ACT and UF. Let Andy have his PM chance…..and let middle NZ see what a mess the incoherent L/G/NF coalition looks like. Bill should not have Winston in a Ministry – he is poison….

    • PDB

       /  July 15, 2017

      The more I think about it the more I think long-term the best interests of the country is for National to discount Peter’s and leave him to cobble together a dysfunctional one-term (or less) govt with Labour/Greens. The backlash from voters in the following years from that would see National doing another long stint in govt and will remind those of us that don’t yet realise that Labour/Greens in govt is an economic disaster.

      • As a party, yes. But English and Joyce will probably be thinking more about the short term – that is, their political futures.

        • Corky

           /  July 15, 2017

          Personally, I don’t think they have a political future. They both must be getting itchy feet to try something new before they need walking sticks. It wouldn’t surprise me if they both retire at the next election after settling Paula in as leader.

  6. Zedd

     /  July 15, 2017

    thats looks more realistic.. Natz/act 44% & Lab/Grn 44% with NZF as the ‘king makers’ & the rest swinging with the ‘winds of change’.

    Its interesting that ‘Others’ have risen from about 1% to 2.5% (likely ALCP & TOP about 1% each ??) roll on 23/9 🙂

    • Kevin

       /  July 15, 2017

      By time election rolls around it’d be Nat/ACT 48% and Lab/Green 38% with Winston as Kingmaker on 16%.

      • Zedd

         /  July 15, 2017

        anythings possible Kevin.. but methinks there is a momentum for change coming..

        I hear ALCP are gearing up to get over 5% & TOP say the same thing 🙂

        • Corky

           /  July 15, 2017

          When it comes to the crunch, Zedd%, the voters will understand Right is best. However, I have not the slightest problem with them voting a Leftwing coalition in. That would be a fantasy come true for me. But be prepared to go to the polls again in December should the voters be blinded by leftwing bs.

          • Zedd

             /  July 15, 2017

            hey Corkey.. this is MMP not FPP.. wake up mate, when the dust settles, things could look completely different, to the parliament of today ?!

            • Corky

               /  July 15, 2017

              Thanks for the heads up, Zedd%

            • Zedd

               /  July 15, 2017

              🙂 no worries

            • Zedd

               /  July 15, 2017

              btw; howz your grand plan to get me booted off.. coming along ?

            • PDB

               /  July 15, 2017

              I think Corky was kidding – every village needs an idiot……

            • Corky

               /  July 15, 2017

              Pete wanted well bled venison along with organic Buffalo Feta cheese.
              So, you live to spout bs until I can afford the Buffalo Feta cheese.

            • Zedd

               /  July 15, 2017

              Thx mate.. for the heads up 😀

            • Gezza

               /  July 15, 2017

              I think Corky was kidding – every village needs an idiot……
              😳
              Are you saying Corky’s an idiot? 😕

            • Corky

               /  July 15, 2017

              Yes, he was. But he wanted me to ask the question. I preferred to let someone else ask..

            • Gezza

               /  July 15, 2017

              Well, I reckon that’s abuse, Corky, & you should file a complaint:

  7. Kitty Catkin

     /  July 15, 2017

    If Auntie Winnie forces a second election, all Hell will break loose. I remember the anger when the old fool kept everyone waiting for who knows how long that other time.

    Poor Bambi ! Eating a dead Bambi ??? NOOOOO !!!

    But Feta cheese is deevoon.