TRP Adviser 28 July 2017

This week we learned many things.

Boris Johnson is not a complete buffoon, the Greens may come to regret Metiria Turei’s confession and one man party Peter Dunne may be over and out in Ohariu.

The likely next leader of the UK Conservative party has been here for a brief visit. Boris Johnson managed to complete the trip without any major gaffes, though comparing a kiwi hongi to a Gorbals kiss might be considered offensive by some here and by some North of Hadrian’s wall.

The perceived wisdom in the UK is that Johnson is biding his time, waiting for the inevitable coup against Theresa May to begin and trusting that there will be a knock on the door as the hopeful party calls on him to lead at their time of need.

I’m not so sure.

Leading a Government that is going to limp along until the next election is an unenviable task. Whether that vote is called early or the Tory/DUP Government lasts the full term, whoever leads the Conservatives to the polls can expect to lose.

I think that if asked, Johnson will say ‘No, thanks’. It’s all too much like hard work and swanning around the world being witty with the locals is much more fun.

Metiria Turei’s confession to an easily understandable and perfectly forgivable benefit rort is still in the headlines, well past the usual news cycle of a day or two.

I reckon it marks the high tide in the Green’s polling. It’ll be all down hill from here.

It won’t affect their die hard voters, but it will have an impact on waverers in the middle who might have been tempted to go green. If there is one thing about the New Zealand middle class that really stands out, it’s a broad streak of sanctimony.

They’ll forgive the likes of Key and English for their many, many rorts because that was just business. But a beneficiary who bends the rules to survive? To the workhouse with her!

I hear from usually reliable sources that Peter Dunne is in big trouble in Ohariu.

Labour have a near perfect candidate for the seat in former police union boss Greg O’Connor. Ohariu is a fairly conservative, middle of the road electorate and both Dunne and O’Connor fit that mold.

O’Connor has the advantage of being brand spanking new and earnestly keen. Too keen, in fact, having been snapped putting up election signs way too early.

That was an embarrassing start for the Labour candidate, but it doesn’t seem to have hurt him in the electorate. I’m told he has built up a convincing polling lead over Dunne already.

And that’s why Bill English felt the need to publicly tout for Peter Dunne. No coy cup of tea, this time. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

National know they are going to need every scrap of support they can get if they are to form the next Government without having to grovel to grumpy old uncle Winston.

Ohariu could be the seat that decides the very nature of the next Government.

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29 Comments

  1. Corky

     /  July 27, 2017

    ”If there is one thing about the New Zealand middle class that really stands out, it’s a broad streak of sanctimony.”

    Bullseye, Pete. You know our tribe well.

    ”I hear from usually reliable sources that Peter Dunne is in big trouble in Ohariu.”

    Mixed feelings on this issue. It’s a toss up who is more past their use-by date… Mallard or Dunn. The thing is I worry about is Dunns state of mind should he get the chop. Anyone who ordered Hansard reports while still a teenager will have a problem on retirement.

    Reply
    • Hi, Corky. It’s me wot wrote it, not our genial host Pete. I’ll be endeavouring to do a new TRP Adviser post at the end of each week.

      Re: Dunne and Mallard, I think Dunne will probably end up on the board of a bank, Air New Zealand or similar. Trevor Mallard is a conundrum. He’s a relatively young man and he has held the Hutt South seat despite it’s demographic changing from working class to middle class as Wellington’s manufacturing base collapsed in the last decade. As long as he remains popular, he’s an obvious asset to Labour.

      Reply
      • Corky

         /  July 28, 2017

        Damn, I knew that Pete was a slacker. Thanks for clarification. Two points.

        1- TRP Adviser?

        2- Are you middleclass?

        Reply
        • The post title is merely riffing on my initials and the travel website (https://www.tripadvisor.co.nz). If they object, I’ll happily change it.

          I’m working class, Corky, though I do now have a house and a salaried job after many years of battling away in factories and the like. I can say with some pride that I was working as a Stop/Go guy as recently as two years ago, so I ain’t no snob and I know what doing it tough means.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  July 28, 2017

            Every stop / go guy or gal gets a wave from me at both ends of the works. Often I get a smile & a wave back. There’s nobility in anyone who does that job: it ‘s a valuable service they provide, often in difficult weather or situations.

            Reply
            • Good on ya, Gezza. I can tell you, it’s much appreciated. It’s hard yakka, often dirty, wet, smelly, too hot, too cold and many times downright dangerous.

            • Gezza

               /  July 28, 2017

              Yup. I know mate. That’s why you get the wave.

  2. “Metiria Turei’s confession to an easily understandable and perfectly forgivable benefit rort is still in the headlines, well past the usual news cycle of a day or two.”

    Not in my world or that or those I know, Labour left or Nats. Might be acceptable to l/w activists, the unemployed and beneficiary demographic, but most who’ve gone without, never received a benefit or if they ever have, had integrity. Her actions are as morally reprehensible as they are illegal. She lacks trustworthiness, honesty, integrity and she’s a first class hypocrite.

    Reply
    • duperez

       /  July 27, 2017

      And there we have that broad streak of sanctimony. “She lacks trustworthiness, honesty, integrity and she’s a first class hypocrite.”

      Any other politicians deserving of the same testimonial? Of course. We have Minister of Justice Adams who presided over leaks to control the narrative in the very high profile Pora and Bain cases. Not 20 odd years ago, but as Minister in recent years. So she has your precious trustworthiness, honesty, and integrity? And after the event in one of those she talked about integrity. What class of hypocrite is that?

      Turei’s actions might be acceptable to l/w activists, the unemployed and beneficiary demographic, or understandable, or able to be forgiven by them after this time but not to people in your world.

      Your world is a very selective one where the boot is happily put into Turei, John Key’s lies about the GCSB were readily accepted and you talk about integrity and selecting those you want to call hypocrite.

      Reply
      • Oh Dupe – you just keep banging the false equivalence drum…….

        MeTu has been revealed in all her deceitful glory……..

        Reply
        • duperez

           /  July 27, 2017

          What’s false equivalence? Is that sort of like when being a lying rorting scumbag has nothing to do with actually being a lying rorting scumbag, but which side of the political table the lying rorting scumbag sits?
          Or is it when the word ‘hypocrite’ rends the air and it clearly comes deep from within Hypocrite City? 😊

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  July 27, 2017

            The two are not comparable, dupers. It’s that simple. The reasons why all attempts to equate Metz’s attempt at self-sanctification fail have been cogently explained here many times over the past few days.

            Reply
          • Nah – it comes down to coming some getting caught in a falsehood, as opposed to a rotten persistent fraudulent scam that lasted a number of years… Dupe is dupe does and this time you done duped yourself…..

            Reply
      • As I’ve said before she’s a thief. I personally hate thieves. I have degree of forgiveness to extend to someone frontally lobe challenged ( under 17 perhaps), but otherwise I put this in the same bracket as walking into an old lady’s house and filching her purse.

        Strangely I hated thieving when I was left wing too. One’s attitude to fraud and theft is nothing to do with ideological party affiliation. It’s essentially down to character and in MT’s case I see an overdeveloped sense of entitlement to other people’s money combined with an utter lack of responsibility. I cannot understand anyone who can forgive her when the info available is screaming first class bludger. Not only were the taxpayers to fund her to be a mother, but they were to provide enough that she didn’t need to work and could campaign for political parties. The money she was receiving wasn’t enough so what’s a girl to do.

        Boyfriend’s salary ✓
        Flatmates to pay her board ✓
        Father of child helping privately, but undeclared to IRD ✓
        Plenty of professed family support ✓
        Larping activity ( girl needs to have fun!)✓
        McGillicuddy Serious ( girl needs to mock ) ✓
        Aotearoa legalise cannabis (girl needs her dope) ✓

        She’s the worst sort of criminal. One who justifies her crime, has no remorse and sees nothing wrong in attempting to politicise it.

        As for the GCSB. Can’t see anything remotely appropriate to compare. All the drama over that was BS. Here’s why John Key was the most popular PM ever, despite the left wing haters. Taking Campbell to the cleaners with facts over their manufactured outrage

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  July 29, 2017

          Fuk. I never saw that interview. I’ve stopped watching at 4.12 because Cambo’s just embarrassing himself with his ignorance & foolish assumptions. Totally owned.

          Reply
  3. Gezza

     /  July 27, 2017

    O’Connor has the advantage of being brand spanking new and earnestly keen. Too keen, in fact, having been snapped putting up election signs way too early.

    That was an embarrassing start for the Labour candidate, but it doesn’t seem to have hurt him in the electorate. I’m told he has built up a convincing polling lead over Dunne already.

    Greg’s my man. 👍🏼 Good to hear. Hadn’t heard about the election signs going up too early, but I don’t think that will do him any harm at all with the punters. Keen as mustard, that says. Fresh for battle. Own man. Not scared to argue with the hierarchy & the powers that be. Just the sort of man Labour needs.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  July 27, 2017

      Needs a sharper, shorter haircut though. These things count.

      Reply
    • Missy

       /  July 28, 2017

      On the election signs, in general I don’t think the majority of the voting public would know the intricate rules around timings etc, so as you say G, it probably won’t do him any harm, except maybe with the really pedantic National / UF supporters, but they wouldn’t be voting for him anyway.

      Reply
  4. Missy

     /  July 28, 2017

    TRP, I agree to a point with what you wrote on Boris. I will disagree that the perceived wisdom is that he is biding his time waiting for the inevitable coup. I don’t think he will be the next Conservative leader, and I don’t think that is the perceived wisdom here in the UK. Some in the media are certainly trying to talk him up as the potential next leader, but following social media, and listening to talkback & current affairs shows on the radio makes me think it isn’t the general opinion. Maybe straight after the election it was the general view, but as time has gone on it definitely isn’t.

    As I said yesterday in the Boris thread here (in reply to Traveller – and agreement with something she wrote) whoever takes on the leadership now will be irrevocably connected to Brexit, they will be seen as an interim PM.

    Check it out, odds are on David Davis – Brexit Minister – with second favourite being Backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg. I am sceptical JRM will become leader as 1. he has stated he doesn’t want it, and 2. He would be a long term person, and I think if TM is rolled the next leader will be chosen as someone to get the UK through Brexit.

    Though I do think Boris could be biding his time, but until after Brexit, so maybe closer to the next election in 2022.

    Reply
    • Cheers, Missy, that’s a more nuanced way of putting it regarding Boris. He is being talked up, but my gut feeling is that he doesn’t want the leadership under these circumstances.

      I also think he knows he’d be a better leader of the opposition than leader of the Government. You’re free to say whatever you want in opposition and that would better suit his personality. So, my guess is he’ll wait till after the next election and either take over immediately if they lose or undermine whoever the leader is if they win with a view to a coup early in the new term.

      Either way, I think he’ll play the long game.

      Reply
      • Missy

         /  July 29, 2017

        There are a lot of competing agendas with regards to the leadership of the Conservatives, personally I don’t think there will be a leadership challenge this year unless something goes really badly wrong. The media seem to be talking up Boris a bit more than the ‘man on the street’, they certainly like the idea of PM Boris, but I think most of the Conservative MPs see any leadership challenge as being the nail in the coffin at the moment, however, that doesn’t rule out Theresa May stepping aside, which will be less messy.

        As you say I don’t think Boris – or anyone with long term ambition – will take on the leadership now, as you say Boris will play the long game, he is too intelligent & savvy to be rash.

        It will be interesting to watch when Parliament is back in session in the Autumn.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  July 29, 2017

          What do you reckon goes on inside Corky’s head Missy? Christ it must be like bloody Hades in there.

          Reply
          • Missy

             /  July 29, 2017

            I am not sure G, worrying about what goes on in Corky’s (and Blazer’s) heads was something I gave up on a long time ago.

            Anyway, might catch you later tonight, just finishing up some stuff from work then out for a bit.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  July 29, 2017

              If you have a squiz on OF he seems to have concluded Kitty’s faking being a widow. The man is all kinds of crazy. He seems to be getting worse, not better. 😕

              I’d better catch some shut eye. I need to be sharp, as he thinks he needs to takeme down a peg or two. Apparently I also create smoke that blinds all you dummies to his reality. Enjoy your ‘out for a bit’. 👍🏼

            • Missy

               /  July 29, 2017

              Hey G, had a read 🙄

              I did enjoy being ‘out for a bit’ – just after work drinks on a Friday! Am on way home now, decided to take the boat home for some relaxation. Just coming up to the Thames barrier now.

            • Conspiratoor

               /  July 29, 2017

              Brother corks is a keen student of human behaviour G and like moi he has a good nose for attention seeking personas. Although his natural proclivities as a raconteur tend to blur the boundary between fact and fiction at times. Despite this he is very well read and is able to contribute much to the rich tapestry we find here. Cheers,c

            • Gezza

               /  July 29, 2017

              Brother corks is a keen student of human behaviour G and like moi he has a good nose for attention seeking personas.

              Moi aussi, mon ami. Including the cryptic ones who share some of his views.

    • Missy, Davis will have to perform in his Brexit role won’t he. Hard to see his efforts being stellar enough to be regarded as a win by all wings of the Party. Also, wasn’t he the man who convinced Teresa to “go to the people”.

      It’s a very fluid situation there and I’d not like to make a call. I like Boris, but I also like TM very much. JRM is an outside chance, but he’s got great political instincts.

      Reply
      • Missy

         /  July 29, 2017

        There is a lot of pressure on Davis to perform in his Brexit role, and no whatever the outcome it won’t be seen as a win by all wings of the party and there is a risk it will be seen as a lose lose by all sections of the party. He was the man who convinced Theresa to go to a snap GE, so there is some baggage there, however, the public still see him as a viable interim PM to get the UK through Brexit.

        I certainly wouldn’t put any money on anything, like you I like Boris and TM, I would like to see TM continue on until the next election, by which stage she may be ready to retire.

        As for JRM, this is an interesting one, he is an outside chance – but remember Corbyn was too, though the membership of Labour do have more influence than the membership of the Conservatives. In all honesty, whilst I like JRM, I do not think he will be leader for the following two reasons:

        1. Sadly in this day and age his religion will count against him, he is a conservative Catholic, and his views on social policies do not always gel with the electorate (though I do think some of his voting was more about saying the state don’t have the right to control personal choices as opposed to being against the legislation, such as voting against making it illegal to smoke in the car when children are present).

        2. He just doesn’t want it.

        The Moggmentum hashtag and twitter account was actually started by JRM’s nephew who did it to get young Conservatives more involved in politics and motivate them, but in an interview I read the other day with him he admitted that JRM wasn’t interested in being PM, and most likely wouldn’t put himself up as a candidate, but JRM has become a focal point for young Conservatives.

        JRM’s odds at the bookies have shortened due in part to someone putting a 500 pound bet on him becoming PM this year!

        Reply

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