1 News Colmar Brunton poll – Labour 24%

The latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll has Labour down to 24, and in an interview a grim looking Andrew Little said he offered to stand down but his colleagues asked him to stay – probably because no one else wants to lead a debacle.

LittleColmarStandDown

  • National 47% (no change)
  • Labour 24% (down from 27)
  • Greens 15% (up from 11)
  • NZ First 11% (no change)
  • Opportunities Partyย  2% (up from 1)
  • Maori Party 1% (down from 2)

This is bad for Labour. And if they keep diving Little may not get back in on the list, he is borderline at 24% depending on electorate results.

Greens will be happy to have risen but without Labour they won’t make it into Parliament. They seem to have given up on Labour and are going for whatever they can get – which is likely to be at Labour’s expense.

Interesting to see no change for NZ First.

TOP will be pleased to be on the rise.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 28% (up from 26)
  • Winston Peters 11% (up from 11)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6% (no change)
  • Andrew Little 6% (up from 5)

These are rounded results, full results usually take a few days to become available.

This poll was taken between Saturday the 22nd and Wednesday the 27th of July.

The Turei issue was still unfolding during this period so it’s too soon to tell what the lasting effect of that will be.

 

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84 Comments

  1. Maggy Wassilieff

     /  July 30, 2017

    Andrew Little is on the big slide.
    Why would people waste their vote on Labour now?…
    Time to think strategically

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  July 30, 2017

      How would you do that? What’s their best strategy?

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  July 30, 2017

        Oh. Duh. Sorry Maggy. I thought you meant Labour needed to think strategically. They’re buggered. Andy’s finally hammered the nail in himself. Winstonian Chaos looks to be on the cards.

        Reply
        • Unless voters go for the safety of a fourth term for National with a few minor parties.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  July 30, 2017

            That IS a likely result.

            Further down it’s suggested Metz will be grinning like a Cheshire Cat, but I wonder whether in addition to Andy’s generally stinkingly obvious political ineptitude, he’s also had the problem – thru the MOU – of now being tainted by association.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017

              Must be positively funereal over @ TS.

            • Missy

               /  July 30, 2017

              Nah G, not funereal (yes I dipped my toe in, pity it is a little early to dull the pain with a wine!).

              They are spinning the usual lines.
              1. polls are all over the place
              2. the Greens are up, so Lab + Gr + NZ First is still higher than National
              3. it is about the left bloc, not Labour specifically

              Pretty much the same delusion they have spun for the last two elections when the polls have been low for Labour.

            • Missy

               /  July 30, 2017

              Oh, and I forgot to add that, of course, this year will be different!

              Also, someone has mentioned the don’t knows – inference being the 20% or so that fall into ‘did not answer’ or ‘don’t know’ will vote left, a bit like the missing million.

  2. Gezza

     /  July 30, 2017

    in an interview a grim looking Andrew Little said he offered to stand down but his colleagues asked him to stay

    They’re done for. There’ll be no comng back from that.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  July 30, 2017

      ๐Ÿ˜ก ๐Ÿ™„ *i

      Reply
    • Laurie

       /  July 31, 2017

      Come on dude the National party got 22% last time English led and they came back.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  July 31, 2017

        They had to get another leader, & they had to get a better feel for the pulse of the nation.

        Reply
  3. artcroft

     /  July 30, 2017

    Meteria will be grinning like the Cheshire Cat who got the cream. 2017 is gone for them but 2020 is in play.

    Reply
    • Indeed the Greens are out to eat Labours lunch… no make that they are out to ingest Labour completely

      Reply
  4. Tipene

     /  July 30, 2017

    3 weeks of wall-to-wall coverage on multiple counts of benefit fraud, child support fraud, and tax fraud…………….and the Greens go UP 4%?

    Boy, the corrupt crim-hugger section of the electorate have woken up all of a sudden, haven’t they?

    Reply
  5. Missy

     /  July 30, 2017

    “Bill English 28% (down from 26)”

    Huh?

    How is 28% down from 26??? Unless things have changed, when I was at school 28 would be UP from 26 – or is 28 no longer a larger number than 26?

    Reply
    • I did it in a hurry and didn’t edit that one. Corrected now.

      Reply
      • Missy

         /  July 30, 2017

        Whew! I was worried that all I learnt at school was now redundant. ๐Ÿ˜€

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  July 30, 2017

          If sex education was included, don’t worry – that’s not.

          Reply
    • Gezza

       /  July 30, 2017

      I’m dubious about this poll. Andy was silly to say that. He’s knackered them.
      But clearly those polled saw that the Barclay Affair was a storm in a tea cup.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  July 30, 2017

        Jeez, watching Andy talking to Corin on 1ewes at 6 on Plus One. Basically he conceded the Greens have said bugger the MoU we’re going for broke, we’ll nick yaw voters!

        Reply
        • That was always the Greens plan methinks. The MOU was just a chance for the Greens to signal they were on the up and to get Labour to signal they were a sick, weakened beast looking for safe haven….

          Never bargain from a position of weakness – the predators can smell the fear

          Even so I might just party vote Labour in the hope of a one term destructive Labour led mess that scares votes off for another decade….

          Reply
      • “Barclay Affair was a storm in a tea cup”

        Yup. Funny the left couldn’t pick that nobody would give a toss about a kid in a suit at the bottom of the country who recorded an employee.

        Reply
    • Freudian slip…..

      Reply
    • Corky.

       /  July 30, 2017

      When you were at school did they teach you lateral thinking, Missy.

      Reply
  6. Gezza

     /  July 30, 2017

    Andy’s 6% up from 5 as preferred PM?
    Not happy with Maori Party at 1% down from 2
    These results are looking a bit all over the place to me.
    Roy Morgan mid Aug might be better I think.

    Reply
  7. lurcher1948

     /  July 30, 2017

    Yawn a poll of 1000 i suppose Hillary got a bit excited at her polls saying see im winning,and look what happened, so the only polling I observe is election day.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  July 30, 2017

      That’s not wot the biggest problem is, Lurch. The real problem is Andy has effectively conceded he’s got no show & that the Greens are nicking Labour voters.

      Reply
  8. sorethumb

     /  July 30, 2017

    Part of the Green problem is that National has let them away with it. Subversive academics are no problem as long as a large flow of migrants enter the country.

    Reply
    • sorethumb

       /  July 30, 2017

      Looks like the Greens are the beneficiary block but at next election they will be holding the moral high ground on every issue (playing loaves and fishes)

      Reply
    • sorethumb

       /  July 30, 2017

      Just as they look at hard line madrassahs in the U.K the West is going to have to tackle the left-wing post modernist academics (make them justify what they teach) and ensure diversity (balanced view point) in the academy.

      Reply
  9. Blazer

     /  July 30, 2017

    Labour strategy is appalling. Nate sleepwalking to another. ..term.

    Reply
    • sorethumb

       /  July 30, 2017

      because Labour has for a long time been split between being pragmatic and “two important issues: rape culture and identity politics” .

      Reply
      • sorethumb

         /  July 30, 2017

        โ€œAbsolutely, there is a wider disconnect between what he said and what the wider public think. Among the Labour Party and liberal left in NZ there are two ideologies that are really important to them and that’s this ideology of identity politics and rape culture. Political threat lists or identity politics is where what you are (man or women, gay your ethnicity) is more important than what you say and do. Rape culture holds that collectively there is this misogynist attitude amongst males that enables others to rape and commit crime.”
        http://www.3news.co.nz/Panel-Willie-Jackson-Bryce-Edwards–Trish-Sherson/tabid/1348/articleID/351457/Default.aspx

        marry that to the bloke in the greasy overalls at the ball-bearing plant.
        See if you can guess which part goes with the Green Party and which NZ First or national?

        Reply
    • No so sure about that BOL…. a lot of unhappy Nat voters out there sick of the continually drift Left by National….. Labour may just rally in the final 3 weeks and surprise us all… i am sure Andy and crew have a BIG bribe policy up there sleeve to suck in the gullible…

      Reply
      • artcroft

         /  July 30, 2017

        I emailed Andrew last night asking for a bribe. Haven’t heard anything back yet, but am very hopeful.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  July 30, 2017

          The cupboard might be a bit bare & the wallet a bit moth-eaten?

          Reply
        • Corky

           /  July 31, 2017

          I saw Andy’s computer for sale at Cash Converters. Labour may need your services when Andy’s time comes, Arty. Please make it quick. Andy’s a decent guy.

          Reply
    • Labour don’t have a strategy B

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  July 31, 2017

        It’s no flipping use down-ticking trav. ๐Ÿ˜ก She’s right. ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿผ

        That’s all there is and there ain’t no more. ๐Ÿ˜•

        And that was all she wrote. ๐Ÿ˜

        Reply
  10. Loki

     /  July 30, 2017

    Watching Andrew Little on One News Tearfully confess to trying to quit was hilarious.
    Of course your fellow leftwards said no.
    Nobody wants the job you chump.
    They are all waiting to knife you at midnight on polling day.
    He will go back to caviar life runners Ng a union.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  July 30, 2017

      runners Ng a union.
      Kitty’s “unlicky people” who had to listen to Metz’s maiden speech is still top contender for typo Best of the Day.

      Reply
  11. I did pick Greens getting up 15% come election time, hopefully this isnt the peak….

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  July 30, 2017

      Yes, you did. Hopefully this is the peak. But tell me, what changes if let’s say they get 18%?

      Reply
  12. “This poll was taken between the 22nd and 27th of July. ”

    The Turei story was still unfolding, so i think it’s too soon to tell whether the jump in support for the Greens will stick or not.

    With Little’s bombshell admission it’s likely Green support will at least hold up.

    Reply
    • sorethumb

       /  July 30, 2017

      Weren’t they polling high last election and NZ First polling low” Maybe someone at Colmar Brunton switches them around?

      Reply
  13. Patzcuaro

     /  July 30, 2017

    It is possibly a changing of the guard, Labour arose out of the issue of the time, workers rights. That is old hat now, the current issue is the environment, saving the planet so we have somewhere to live. Hece the rise of the Green movement.

    Reply
    • sorethumb

       /  July 30, 2017

      The Greens weak point is that they are big on environmental talk but when it comes to the problematic species they are utopian socialists.

      Reply
    • PDB

       /  July 30, 2017

      Your so called ‘rise of the green movement’ is around 4% of dole bludgers moving their vote from Labour to the Greens because the Greens are offering more money, no questions asked.

      Reply
  14. Patzcuaro

     /  July 30, 2017

    It appears that whether you agree with Turei or not, she and the Greens may have shifted the goal posts.

    Reply
    • artcroft

       /  July 30, 2017

      To what. From getting into govt to destroying Labour?

      Reply
      • Patzcuaro

         /  July 30, 2017

        From Labour being the dominant party of the left to the Greens being the dominant party of the left. Is Labour rights or the environment the dominant issue going forward.

        Reply
        • PDB

           /  July 30, 2017

          As good as it gets really for the Greens who always drop votes come election day because a large portion of those that say they will vote Green in the polls can’t be assed actually voting.

          Reply
  15. Alan Wilkinson

     /  July 30, 2017

    As I said a while ago, it’s not Angry Andy, it’s Sad Andy. Greens ate his lunch.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  July 30, 2017

      What hurts is he seen them stealing it & couldn’t stop them.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  July 31, 2017

        National has stolen the pragmatists. Greens own the utopians. Peters has the confused. Morgan is scrapping for the utopian confused. Labour is left with a dying tribal rump.

        Reply
  16. Corky

     /  July 31, 2017

    Forgotten in all of this is National…rock solid on 47%. And PM Billy English up 2% in popularity.

    That’s great for third term troughers regardless of the opposition.

    Reply
  17. Zedd

     /  July 31, 2017

    so there was a slight shift in the ‘Left block’ & all the excited Tories are saying ‘game, set & match’ to Natz. ?? Did any of you see; Natz (no change) still below 50
    what are youz smoking guys.. ‘synthetics’ or P to get such a ‘rush of blood’ ? ๐Ÿ˜ฆ

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  July 31, 2017

      Theyz fukd. Labour. Absolutely rooted.
      I hate to be so crude. But it’s just how it is.
      And it might be the only way to get it thru to you.

      Reply
    • Gezza

       /  July 31, 2017

      There really is only one issue that drives you. Drug law reform. Why not stop wasting yaw time posting garbarano about the “Natz”, pull your head out of it, get off it, get organised & get working on how you are going to persuade every individual MP in parliament, especially National’s & the soon-to-be shattered remnants of Labour’s, that this REALLY needs doing?
      You don’t need to worry about Metz’s supporters. A lot of of them are possibly already heavily into chilling out after spliffing, & fkicking their homegrown excess around for a small amount of undeclared income, & some of them will be only to happy to see the reform increase their business.

      Reply
      • Zedd

         /  July 31, 2017

        OUCH ! ๐Ÿ˜€

        Reply
      • Zedd

         /  July 31, 2017

        @Gezza

        whilst you are correct, i am focused on Drug/cannabis reform.. i am a staunch person of the LEFT & as per others; the main focus is to change this smug, outdated Govt. !

        **At least I am clear which side of the fence I’m on !!!! ๐Ÿ˜ฆ

        Reply
        • Zedd

           /  July 31, 2017

          If you pull the fence posts out of your A.. I’d take you more seriously Gezza

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  July 31, 2017

            ๐Ÿ˜ฎ I feel that’s a bit … well … crude? Zedd. ๐Ÿ˜•

            Was there really any need to lower yourself to MY level? ๐Ÿ˜ณ

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  July 31, 2017

              “the main focus is to change this smug, outdated Govt. !”

              Mine too. But I think the strategy is wrong. Totally wrong. Total rethink needed by the left. But I’d have to start another party to test my theory & the market’s crowded enuf & the amount of slog needed is more than I want to take on.

            • Gezza

               /  July 31, 2017

              Bugger. Forgot the

            • Gezza

               /  July 31, 2017

              with the / and the i in the middle.

            • Gezza

               /  July 31, 2017

              ๐Ÿ˜ก the , I mean.

            • Gezza

               /  July 31, 2017

              Aw shit – the horizontal v’s facing left & right, they just won’t bloody show up. Tell ya wot – just forget it! ๐Ÿ™„

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  July 31, 2017

              HTML confused, G. Will be getting filtered out by WordPress.

            • Gezza

               /  July 31, 2017

              Bastards, Al.

            • Zedd

               /  July 31, 2017

              @Gezza

              I hear TOP are looking for new members… :/

            • Gezza

               /  July 31, 2017

              @ Zedd. Go for it, bud. ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿผ Tell the Greens you wish them well, but Metz’s blatant dishonesty was just a step too far for ya after ya thort about it & talked it over on a forum.

              I’m not looking for a party to join. I’m looking for followers.

          • Gezza

             /  July 31, 2017

            **At least I am clear which side of the fence Iโ€™m on !!!! ๐Ÿ˜ฆ

            I find my way around, over, or under a fence that’s in my way. I wouldn’t be looking to win – because that means – if you don’t – you lose.

            I’d be focussed on what is my real objective & I’d be looking to succeed. That means thinking quite differently than just “which side of the fence am I on?”

            Reply
    • Corky

       /  July 31, 2017

      PM and High Chief, Billy English, issued a reminder that the left could still form a government. Sure it’s unlikely, and Billy meant those comments to be heard by Tories who believe the election is a forgone conclusion so may stay home and sip champagne between silk sheets while shagging the missus. But he’s right. The Left could still form a government by offering Winnie the job of PM.

      Reply

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