Economy the top concern in survey

It has long been thought that the thing that makes up the minds of voters the most when it comes to election crunch time is the economy. Other issues get aired and appear to get traction with the media and possibly the public, but a stable and strong economy seems to sway more than most.

The latest Herald-ZB-Kantar TNS online survey asked “which of eight issues was most likely to affect their vote”:

  • Economy 25%
  • Health 16%
  • Housing 12%
  • Poverty 10%
  • Immigration 9%
  • Environment 8%
  • Education 8%
  • Unemployment 3%
  • None of these issues 9%

This isn’t surprising as the economy impacts on each of the other seven issues. You need a strong economy to be able to afford to deal with the rest.

The economy was the top pick for both genders and across employed, self-employed and unemployed voters although housing slightly edged out the economy among young, urban voters in their 20s.

Young voters are most affected by escalating house prices but they are also the lowest voting age group.

Overall there is quite a spread of views on what should be done about house prices.

There were different concerns in Auckland to other areas.

Unsurprisingly, housing was more important to Aucklanders than other New Zealanders in the survey. It was the second most important issue in Auckland chosen by 18% of Aucklanders compared to 9% of those in the rest of the North Island.

A higher proportion of Aucklanders also selected immigration as a big issue than those living elsewhere. It was a big issue to 12% of Auckland respondents compared to 9 % overall.

The survey of 1000 was conducted from July 19-26 and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 per cent. It is an online survey by ConsumerLink which runs the Fly Buys panel of 120,000 active members, one of the largest in New Zealand. The sampling was nationally representative and post-weighted by age, gender and region to match the population.

Because it has only started surveying recently and asks different questions to other polls it’s hard to compare the Herald-ZB-Kantar TNS online surveys, so hard to evaluate how accurate they might be.

58 Comments

  1. Corky

     /  July 30, 2017

    Well, if the survey is right, and the economy is a major factor for voters, then it’s a simple choice- National. You cant be a rational human being and not vote for them given the opposition.

    The surprise for me was Immigration. If you have a problem with immigration then Winston is your man. Maybe Andy if he’s having a bad hair day.

    The only smudge in this beautiful vista is housing.

    • Gezza

       /  July 30, 2017

      FMD. I agree.

      The only thing is, if you have a problem with immigration, & Winston is your man, & he controls it, you could have another problem with immigration.

    • Brown

       /  July 30, 2017

      One of my sons has lived in Queenstown for years and has a successful business there. A couple of years ago he went house hunting but found he simply could not afford anything that suited a tradesman – apartments were not practical. Looking at other towns in the area did not see practical options either (travelling would be a pain) so he’ s moving out. He’s happy enough as he says Queenstown is now too busy and crowded – good to visit but not so good to live in. Rents are very expensive but wages for ordinary people are no higher than anywhere else. He’ll do just as well in Nelson. where he is having a house built, and has solved his problem. Aucklanders should think about this.

      The other point about housing is the council compliance component. The % is staggering in some areas.

      • Blazer

         /  July 30, 2017

        What about his business?Income a major factor in relocating.

    • I think many people will have a problem with Winston’s anti-immigration dog whistling.

      About a quarter of New Zealanders are immigrants. Many more, most, are the children and grandchildren of immigrants.

      So immigrant bashing will appeal to a fairly small demographic, most of whom seem to forget their own family histories.

      • Gezza

         /  July 30, 2017

        Yes. And turning the tap off to the degree he proposes has been done at least twice before & had to be reversed extremely wuickly because of the impact it had on employers & exporters needing the influx of foreign innovators, talent, & sokid work ethic. This isn’t Kiwi bashing. There has been plenty of social research done to show that skilled & even low-skilled immigrants work harder than locals, & benefit the economy because they need & want to establish themselves & own their own home & secure as good, or a better, future for their tamaraki & mokopuna in their new homeland.

        What is needed is to take great care that a massive influx of a people with any particlar foreign culture does not overwhelm the ‘native’ one & create resentment & social disharmony, which can be exploited by unscrupulous politicians for political gain.

        • Gezza

           /  July 30, 2017

          * sht! So sorry for these stupid typos I keep bloody missing cos useless fkn proof-reader! 🙄

        • sorethumb

           /  July 30, 2017

          I define Tangata whenua as Pakeha and Maori opposed to immigration.

          • How do you define ‘Pakeha’?

          • Gezza

             /  July 30, 2017

            Why? And are you opposed to immigration? All immigration? Some immigration? Some immigrants? I think we need some immigration. But I think our current policies might be breeding trouble for the future, & are already badly impacting the housing market in Auckland for locals. Maybe North Welly too. My 3 immediate neighbours are asian immigrants. They had the dosh & easily outbid the locals.

            • sorethumb

               /  July 30, 2017

              I see two prongs to the immigration policy.
              1. Left-wing: basically opposes the natural tendency of people to ethno-nationalism. That is what words such as “distasteful” and “bigoted” and “racist” generally are aimed at. Defeating a tendency to ethno-nationalism is of primary concern so that whether immigration makes legacy New Zealanders better off is secondary. The switch to a points based system was ostensibly for our economic benefit but it was much more than that. The government now has to change the national identity by rewriting history: “we are a nation of immigrants”; “the Chinese have always been here”; “we are a deeply racist country”; ” settler society is illegitimate” etc.
              2. On the right we have naked self-interest from the non-tradeables sector.
              http://imgbox.com/hPbuHrAE

            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017

              So your main concern is our cultural identity being supplanted with an alien one?

              Just for context, I’ll say that my main concern is our bicultural identity being supplanted with an alien one. I don’t care what colour people’s skin is.

            • sorethumb

               /  July 30, 2017

              I would have thought that there is no absolute dichotomy that makes us bicultural.
              In the new edition of Being Pakeha, I go on to say that, as another indication of how far Pakeha culture has become indigenous, it is only right to see the macrocarpa and the wooden church as being as much emblematic of the New Zealand landscape and human occupation of it, as the meeting house and the cabbage tree.
              Michael King
              http://www.sof.org.nz/origins.htm

              Culture is what we do and how we live. Maori can call themselves tangata whenua for all they like but it isn’t Maori buying up Auckland or the high country sheep stations etc. Already we have seen developers forming alliances with hapu wherever there is coastal property to die for. As long as Maori retain some unique political power it is open to exploitation.

            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017

              I understand there is a perspective, that effectively Pakeha culture IS all-embracing & encompasses Maori as New Zealanders. And I see both Maori & Pakeha of generations of lineage as native-born owners of New Zealanders, or Aotearoans – either label is ok with me, though I prefer NZer, & often use Kiwi.

              But I see modern Ex-European Pakeha & Maori cultures as distinct. I don’t see that as a problem, as long as we share sufficient values & respect towards the good in each other’s cultures, & I try my damndest all the time to do that.

              I draw the line at gangs. Which, as I have often said, are a perversion of both our cultures.

              Maori and Pakeha? To me – we are both New Zealanders. No problem at all with being a Pakeha first, sometimes. Just want respect for being, I hope, a good person. No problem at all with someone being Maori first, hope I respect them for being a good person.

          • sorethumb

             /  July 30, 2017

            Buggered if I know what the proponents of high migration are seeing. For some (obviously) there is a direct payback and if you are doing well financially then money gets you location and locale, status and the ability to relocate overseas, but for legacy New Zealanders what is there? As Ranganui Walker put it we will be “just like anywhere else”?

            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017

              So … zero immigration’s the ideal policy 4u?

            • sorethumb

               /  July 30, 2017

              Gezza
              So … zero immigration’s the ideal policy 4u?
              ……
              I think the whole policy to date has been a disaster. Kerry McDonald thinks so too.
              The notion of not being racist has had a downside as in Australia where changing demographics in the Eastern states is making them look away from New Zealand. That is to say if you chose migrants from countries which our own people could and do want to step into it advantages that population.

            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017

              So, you want zero immigration?

          • Corky

             /  July 30, 2017

            Reality check for you, Thumbs. Tangata whenua, for Maori, applies to them.
            You, if you are a Pakeha, are considered Tau Iwi.

            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017

              Yeah. That might be how they see it, & in the historical context, that I can accept as tru. But in the sense belonging to this land, for four generations, & and having no other land I belong to or intend to belong to – this is my country & I too am tangata whenua.

            • Corky

               /  July 30, 2017

              Now you are talking. And you understand what many don’t…Maori don’t see themselves as New Zealanders( definitely not all to be fair). They are Maori first. Europeans see themselves as New Zealanders; inclusive with Maori. Hence the name Tau Iwi which to me is offensive to half of my whakapapa and Europeans in general.

            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017

              Yes Corky. To those of us Pakeha who are deeply generationally embedded into this land, tau iwi is offensive.

      • Corky

         /  July 30, 2017

        I don’t think Winston is immigrant bashing, Pete. Apart from maybe a Wong joke here and there to appeal to his elderly audience who come from another era. His main concern is an overhaul of the immigration system. A system that can see productive people given the boot, while rapists and wife bashers from the Islands stay. Or where you have a Chinese political party formed that states its allegiance is to Mother China.

        • sorethumb

           /  July 30, 2017

          Chinese tourism is booming
          http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/81627019/chasing-the-dragon-the-pursuit-of-the-chinese-tourist
          Wife + 4 parents + helicopter flights + Greenstone factory + shopping? Way to go!
          ……..
          Susan Devoy: “the Chinese have always been here”

          • Corky

             /  July 30, 2017

            You are reading me wrong. It’s about us calling the tune…under our control.
            Its about protecting our national identity first…..strangely enough just like the Chinese do.

            What chance do you think a Roundy would have of getting his extended family into China?

            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017

              snowflake’s chance in hell.
              (Not the phantom one)

      • Conspiratoor

         /  July 30, 2017

        Here’s a thoughtful piece that presents a case against the ‘here and now’ of immigration in a dispassionate way without resorting to cheap slogans and dissy putdowns like ‘dog-whistling’ and ‘immigrant bashing’..

        http://www.noted.co.nz/currently/social-issues/the-economics-of-immigration-in-nz/

  2. Blazer

     /  July 30, 2017

    Yes the economy is the primary concern of voters. National spin doctors have embedded the notion that they are the competent party, the ‘safe pair of hands’..regardless of any evidence to back that. .assertion. A triumph of…marketing.

    • Gezza

       /  July 30, 2017

      How come only you are so intelligent only you can see the real truth, like this?

      Is it possible you might just be wrong?

      • Blazer

         /  July 30, 2017

        Only me?or is it. ..only. ..you?

        • Gezza

           /  July 30, 2017

          Well, to be fair, I don’t think it’s only me. And I don’t think it’s only you. Over at TDB & TS there are people constantly moaning, in essence, that Kiwidom is fill of gullible people having the wool pulled over their eyes. But they’re losers – at election time.

          And I don’t think I’m stupid, though I accept that others may disagree.

          Which Party do you think would be better leading a coalition government?

          No need to answer, or to say you’re not too embarrassed to answer, if you’re too embarrassed to answer. It’s sbsolutely your right to just tweet critical one-liners & not disclose.

          • Blazer

             /  July 30, 2017

            Do not waste your overt hostility on me..Gezza…I do not need instruction on what. ..to. .post.

            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017

              I’m not hostile. I’m just curious. And a bit analytical, when it comes to people. I have a reasonably open mind & I tend to just say what I think & not hide behind invective tweets, too scared to say who’ll vote for or why.

              Prople who consistently show an adversarial or a naturally hostile bent tend to interpret what I say through their lens, I’ve noticed, but I’ve pointed this out so often it hardly seems worthwhile bothering anymore.

              I’m wating for PDB’s contribution, tbh. He seems to be a solid analyst of issues & argue a good case. And he’s not a silverback, like some.

          • Blazer

             /  July 30, 2017

            My original post on this thread is considered opinion. .not a..one liner.

            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017

              Fair enuf. Who will you vote for, & why? Out of interest.

            • Blazer

               /  July 30, 2017

              @Gezza…I..haven’t made up my mind. .yet.

            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017

              Main Contenders?

    • Conspiratoor

       /  July 30, 2017

      Agreed blazer, although to be fair I don’t think they have succeeded in pulling the wool by some sort of michaelavian scheming. It’s more a reflection of the complete ineptitude of the other lot. We tend to see things through a relativity filter

  3. Conspiratoor

     /  July 30, 2017

    I might be mistaken but it looks to me like Winston has had a change of heart about capping immigration. It looks to have been quietly pulled from his policies which have been watered down to the extent they look like real change ain’t gonna come. I wonder if he’s had a visit from some people …good people…

    “New Zealand First will:

    Make sure that Kiwi workers are at the front of the job queue.
    Ensure that immigration policy is based on New Zealand’s interests and the main focus is on meeting critical skills gaps.
    Ensure family reunion members are strictly controlled and capped and there is fairness across all nationalities.
    Ensure that there is effective labour market testing to ensure New Zealanders have first call on New Zealand jobs.
    Introduce a cap on the number of older immigrants because of the impact on health and other services.
    Make sure effective measures are put in place to stop the exploitation of migrant workers with respect to wages, safety and work conditions. In Christchurch and elsewhere there is evidence of exploitation of migrant workers.
    Develop strategies to encourage the regional dispersion of immigration to places other than Auckland. Auckland’s infrastructure is overloaded.
    Remove the ability to purchase a pre-paid English lesson voucher to bypass the minimum English entry requirements.”

    • Gezza

       /  July 30, 2017

      I’m not surprised.

      • Conspiratoor

         /  July 30, 2017

        Next time you see the resident wordsmith G could you ask her whether the word ‘ensure’ is an acceptable substitute for ‘make sure that’. Cheers,c

        • Gezza

           /  July 30, 2017

          I’m not entirely sure we’re talking at the moment. You know what they can be like.

          • Conspiratoor

             /  July 30, 2017

            Could it be because you have employed the honorific ‘mate’ in your recent exchanges

            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017

              No I don’t think I have, but I only use that term where I know that’s the right word for the person and situation. Trav & Missy have no issues with it at all, for example. I doubt Kitty would either. I’m a bit puzzled by your recent fixation with this, tbh.

            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017

              I’ve been thinking about this, c. You I think might tend to go looking for women who are looking for silverbacks. But not all of them are. So, I’,3 found that simply establishing friendly relationships with a selection of the available population has been quite a successful strategy as I’m not always hunting, sometimes I just enjoy their different perspectives & being in their company. I’ve found them utterly fascinating creatures for as far back as I can remember.

            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017

              I’,3 = I’ve. Sorry for the covfefe.

            • Conspiratoor

               /  July 30, 2017

              Let’s just choose to celebrate diversity G. Before the advent of on line groceries i treated a visit to countdown as an ordeal akin to chinese water torture. In and out as fast as possible with enough to keep the whanau fed for two weeks. You on the other hand appear to approach it as a major event on the social calendar, using a bag of chicken wings for dins as an excuse to engage with checkout operators and fellow shoppers

            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017

              Absolutely. 👍🏼

            • Gezza

               /  July 30, 2017
    • sorethumb

       /  July 30, 2017

      All it takes is a group to infiltrate NZ First knowing they will get over 5% for sure. I hear lots of talk of RMA…. those people are pro-immigration as it is bread and butter?

  4. sorethumb

     /  July 30, 2017

    Here’s a revealing comment.
    Professor Spoonley opines that The Auckland Council for Civic Governance has had a curious omission: diversity is not seen as vitally important.
    Up springs this comment:

    Fantastic piece. Thanks so much.
    Vancouver’s experience is probably like Canada’s on the whole. Trudeau brought in multiculturalism by federal directive in the 70s (“Although there are two founding peoples there is no founding culture…” and that mirrored Laurier before him…) Then in 1982, multiculturalism was enshrined in the Charter. Then in the mid-80s a Conservative PM enacted the “Multiculturalism Act”.
    Now in Canada’s large cities it’s somewhat amusing to hear people speaking English. Fourth generation Canadians are seen as an amusing relic. Do you eat roasts? Do your parents wear sweaters to dinner and talk about classical music, ha ha ha?
    The reality is that in NZ, the hegemony of Anglo Saxon culture refuses to die. The Interfaith dialogue was a fantastic example of that. Also, we never had (much) immigration from Central, Eastern or Southern Europe. We still treat South Africans and Poms as “one of us”.
    http://publicaddress.net/speaker/what-diversity-dividend/

    If that isn’t social engineering what is? In fact it is much more, it is ignoring the rights of Anglo-Saxon New Zealanders (and their Maori relations) to exclusive occupation of their own country for their own benefit; the only other way that has been achieved is through warfare.

    • phantom snowflake

       /  July 30, 2017

      You puzzle me a bit. Your comments on this site often take an anti-immigration and anti-diversity stance. And yet; you have spoken of your youth as a “revolutionary marxist” in the UK, making it likely that you are an immigrant here. Your migration here, from an alien culture, would certainly have added to this nation’s diversity. I’m left wondering if your (unstated) true position is: White/European/”Western” immigration = GOOD, Refugee/Brown/Asian/Muslim immigration = BAD. Tell me it’s not true…

  1. Economy the top concern in survey — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition