Waiariki electorate ‘internal Labour Party survey”

Without seeing details of claimed party internal polls it’s difficult to know how much weight should be given them, but caution should certainly be exercised.

Newshub:  Labour poll suggests it’s game-on in Waiariki

It obviously suits Labour to suggest it’s ‘game on’ in the Waiariki electorate. Labour have selectively leaked internal polls when it suits them, but most of their polls remain under cover.

The Hui has obtained the results of an internal Labour Party survey of Waiariki which is currently held by Māori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell, and the numbers make interesting reading.

Candidate vote

Which of the following candidates would you vote for as your local MP?

  • Māori Party candidate Te Ururoa Flavell – 31.6 percent
  • Labour candidate Tamati Coffey – 30.1 percent
  • Another candidate – 21.0 percent
  • Unsure – 17.3 percent

Not having any other candidates or parties named may distort the result.

Party vote

Which of the following would you cast your party vote for?

  • National – 13.4 percent
  • Labour – 19.4 percent
  • The Greens – 12.1 percent
  • NZ First – 25.7 percent
  • The Māori Party – 18.9 percent
  • Another Party – 4.4 percent
  • Unsure – 6.1 percent

The survey was conducted between July 19 and July 22, and has a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

A margin of error of 3.6% suggests a sample size of around 750, but that would only be correct if 750 people in the Waiariki electorate were polled, and Waiariki wasn’t a subset of the poll.

In the 2014 election the electorate vote:

  • Te Ururoa Flavell (Maori Party 9,726 – 44.62%
  • Rawhiri Waititi (Labour) 5,837 – 26.78%
  • Annette Sykes (Mana Party) 5,482 – 25.15%

Party vote:

  • Labour 8,595 – 38.7%
  • Maori Party 8,595 – 21.79%
  • NZ First 2,801 – 12.51%
  • Internet Mana 2,524 – 11.27%
  • Greens 1,787 – 7.98%
  • National 1,120 – 5.00%

5 Comments

  1. Corky

     /  July 30, 2017

    Annette Sykes ..now there’s a media darling who isn’t a media darling anymore. Perhaps she found her European side, bagged a flash job and now just pays lip service to Maori issues.

    • Gezza

       /  July 31, 2017

      Sykes is an advocate for Māori independence and a nuclear free, genetic engineering free independent Pacific. She was a Māori Party member but became a prominent member of the Mana Party in 2011. She was listed second on the Mana Party list for the 2011 election as well as standing in the Waiariki electorate. – wiki

      Given that bio, what you suggest seems highly unlikely, in fact so unlikely, bordering on ridiculous. But I can’t say she ever came across as a media darling, except maybe to you Corks? I suspect as Mana’s fortunes nose-dived her profile just dropped with it. I very much doubt those central themes of her aspirations trigger much support from the majority of Maori hapu & iwi, who probsbly have a more specific & reasonable idea of what kind of independent authority they would ideally like to have more control with in what parts of their rohe.

  2. Gezza

     /  July 30, 2017

    Labour candidate Tamati Coffey – 30.1 percent

    I don’t believe it’ll be that high.

  3. Te Aroha is all about mana. Weather boy has zero

  1. Waiariki electorate ‘internal Labour Party survey” — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition