Newshub poll – NAT 45.2%, LAB 24.1%

The latest (July 2017) Newshub/Reid Research poll has National into tricky territory, needing more than their current partners to get back in.

But most of the talk is about Labour diving, with three recent polls having them at 24.1% (Reid Research), 24% (Colmar Brunton) and 23% (UMR internal poll).

  • National 45.2% (down from 47.4)
  • Labour 24.1% (down from 26.6)
  • Greens 13.0% (up from 12.5)
  • NZ First 13.0% (up from 9.4)
  • The Opportunities Party 2.0% (up from 0.8)
  • Maori Party 1.2% (up from 0.7)
  • ACT Party 0.5% (down from 0.9)
  • United Future 0.2% (down from 0.3)

There is no escaping a dire situation for Labour and for Andrew Little.

A different balance between Greens and NZ First to the Colmar Brunton poll, with them level pegging here.

TOP will be happy to be on the rise but still a long way off the 5% threshold.

The Maori Party are in the vicinity of what they need to keep two seats.

ACT are failing to make an impact.

ReidResearch2012-2017

Preferred Prime Minister:

The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted July 20-28. 1000 people were surveyed, 750 by telephone and 250 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

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26 Comments

  1. PDB

     /  July 31, 2017

    *National have consistently been averaging 46% for a long time on the poll of polls – so no change there.
    *TOP picked up a little of the Green vote who don’t tolerate benefit fraud.
    *NZL First was well under-estimated last poll and are more realistic now.
    *Greens likely to have seen their losses made up with a few benefit fraudsters coming over from Labour.

  2. sorethumb

     /  July 31, 2017

    and the shy Winston effect as pollster with accent asks questions.

  3. As PDB says the Nat result is in the long term channel. There be a marginal drift lower over the long term but really its all margin of error, in the trend channel stuff.

    On Labour – if someone with nads [male or female]and a little, just a smidge, of confidence and charisma stands up and can lift Labour 3/4% they could easily form a government….. lift 5/6% and barring a collapse in the Green vote then Labour would definitely be government with NZF and Greens locked in their traditional bitches giving confidence & supply from the cross benches…

    The real questions for 23/9:

    Will the green collapse as normal at the polling booth?

    Does Bill have enough to hold the Nat vote up above 47% which would make it hard for the opposition to cobble together a coalition to oust National?

    Will TOP party breach 5% or just be this elections Internet Party and generate a bunch of wasted votes?

    At what point do we all sell down our portfolios if it looks a chance the Mess of NZL/NZG/NZF could form a government?

    How long will Winston keep the public waiting once the votes are counted and seats declared before he opts for NZN or NZL??

    • PDB

       /  July 31, 2017

      Winston can really go one way, and that’s with the party representing by far the largest voting block. National should call his bluff, concede bugger all to him post-election and take the risk he goes with the left and kills them for good.

      Might hurt Bill’s ego for a bit though he would take comfort from the fact he won the largest party vote and he wouldn’t have to go through the pain of having Winston in his govt.

      • No deal with Winston would be my call….. If he goes with the others it does a couple of things – kills him politically, damages the Left as unstable and divided when their government implodes. Allows National to cull more deadwood while sitting in opposition pulling the government apart on policy and instability, reinforces to Bill he is not cut out for headman duties and he should stick to what he does best Finance and Policy….

        Won’t happen because Bill needs a PMship won at the polls to salve his ego… imo of course…

        • Gezza

           /  July 31, 2017

          Maybe. I don’t think Bill’s driven by ego. More your sort of ‘do your duty’ type.

  4. Corky

     /  July 31, 2017

    ”There is no escaping a dire situation for Labour and for Andrew Little.”

    Interesting to note the only Labour MP Rachael Smally could get to talk about the poll was Stuart Nash. Nashy confirmed he was 100% loyal to Andy. Nash also stated the feedback he had received about Earth Mother had been overwhelmingly negative.

    • Newshub quoted Labour’s campaign manager Phil Twyford “I will continue to support Andrew as long as he is still the leader”.

  5. Conspiratoor

     /  July 31, 2017

    Can someone smarter than I translate the below. I’m staggered to learn this cluster f#ck could inflict even more of these cretins upon us. Lange used to say mmp was a joke he used as a diversion, never meant to be taken seriously…

    “If Labour win enough seats outright, but their party vote fails, they could end up with an overhang which pushes the overall number of MPs up to say, 124.
    This would make their coalition numbers easier, while making Nationals numbers harder.”

    • If Labour win say 25 electorates, but only get enough party vote for 21 MPs, they have a 4 seat overhang.

      The Maori Party, UF and ACT could also end up with overhang seats.

      • Conspiratoor

         /  July 31, 2017

        How would the extra 4 seats created by the overhang in your scenario be allocated…all to labour?

        • High Flying Duck

           /  July 31, 2017

          Labour would keep the electoral seats they won (25 In PG’s example above) over and above what the party vote gave them (21).

          All other parties still get their full allocation from the party vote.

          So the party vote allocates the 120 seats in parliament as normal, made up of electorate MP’s plus MP’s off the list.
          Electorate seats won in excess of party votes create the overhang

  6. Alan Wilkinson

     /  July 31, 2017

    That chart doesn’t seem to have the latest (this) poll in it.

    • Newshub provided a link to the details website after publishing the poll results but before updating the data. I have loaded a refreshed chart.

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  July 31, 2017

        That’s better. Greens on a slight rising trend. Amazing how much less noise there is in these polls than in the Morgan one. Definitely control their sampling a heck of a lot better.

  7. Kabull

     /  July 31, 2017

    If Labour fall away to around 20% and the Nats hold up in the mid-high 40s, why wouldn’t a ‘;Grand Coalition’ of Nat/Lab work? Apart from the rhetoric there is very little between the parties that couldn’t be accommodated through a bit of cooperation. A move like that would spike Winston’s guns and squash the Lemons.

    • I think that’s an option that should be seriously considered by both National and Labour but i don’t think either party would be willing to try.

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  July 31, 2017

        Probably be the death knell for Labour. It’s remaining supporters would commit hari kari.

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  July 31, 2017

          Damn that escaped apostrophe.

  8. PDB

     /  July 31, 2017

    Meanwhile the MSM has turned on Little and are calling for his head at tomorrows meeting and again are promoting Ardern as Labour’s only savior. Labour made the big mistake in bowing to MSM demands in making Ardern deputy in the first instance – a sign of weakness the MSM wish to exploit a 2nd time so as to have their media darling in the race.

    Ardern pleads loyalty to Little praying that he doesn’t step down before the election thus leaving all her political inadequacies, frailties & lack of vision, drive & leadership horribly exposed.

    Terrible times for Labour.

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  July 31, 2017

      So can we expect to see Labour pasting stickers over their own hoardings? This week’s leader is (?)

  9. Tipene

     /  August 1, 2017

    NZ First at 13% – flipping heck – could it go up even more, and if so, who loses?