Challenges for National

Despite the crisis faced by Labour, National still have challenges of their own heading into the election campaign.

Few expect them to do as well as last election when they just got a slim majority with 47.04%, trimmed to a whisker when they lost the Northland by-election.

Three recent polls:

  • UMR (Labour’s internal poll): 42%
  • Colmar Brunton: 47%
  • Newshub/Reid Research: 45.1%

I think the UMR poll is a bit older and tends to favour Labour rather than National, but these polls suggest that National have a challenge avoiding having to negotiate with Winston Peters based on all of these results.

BUT anything could happen now as a result of Labour’s torpidity followed by turmoil.

This could throw everything wide open if voters desert Labour and switch to the Greens or NZ First. Or voters may prefer the safety of an uninspiring but well known National plus a few small support parties again.

National still have the advantage of having a good relationship with several small parties still, while the Labour-Green Memorandum of Understanding was effectively thrown out the window by Metiria Turei and now Andrew Little seems to have smashed any window of opportunity for Labour.

So National has been helped by the turmoil on the left, but they have to do more to help themselves. Arrogance and complacency are probably their biggest challenges to overcome, but they could do with a much stronger approach from Bill English as well.

If they cruise then NZ First and the Greens make pick up the bulk of the votes thrown up in the air by Labour.

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10 Comments

  1. Corky

     /  August 1, 2017

    ”National still have the advantage of having a good relationship with several small parties.”

    So simple. National understands the meaning of “not burning your bridges.”

    Labour who should be everyone’s friend seem elitist by comparison.

  2. David

     /  August 1, 2017

    Little should never have let Winston in in Northland and then done the MOU both strategic mistakes.
    I dont get the complacency/arrogant theme of National they still seem to have quite the workload, sure there have been isolated examples of arrogancy but they get stamped on pretty quick by the party.

    • PDB

       /  August 1, 2017

      David: “Little should never have let Winston in in Northland and then done the MOU both strategic mistakes”.

      Yep – Labour by doing both showed small party mentality so no surprise they are now becoming a………..small party.

  3. Corky.

     /  August 1, 2017

    National need to spin a good line on Cindy. She’s lightweight,a bimbo and an attention seeker. Work with the perception that is already out there. The leaders debates( are we having them?) can only go two ways for PM Billy English…a roaring success or a failure based on presentation.

    Paula needs to be hoisted for a makeover before she engages Cindy.

    • Gezza

       /  August 1, 2017

      Well, I don’t normally like to comment on females’ appearances because it’s their personalities that are most important for me. But from the subliminal influencing angle she coild lose a few pounds.

      In a leader’s debate, Billy can probably take Jacinda down, just by playing a straight bat, answering with what National have akready done to address it – & just looking vaguely puzzled at everything she says.

      I may be wrong. Just my thinking at the mo.

  4. lurcher1948

     /  August 1, 2017

    Hell corky we have a young chippy with a smile,teeth and hair as Labours new PM or an forgetful old fart from dipton who has lost before,think youth or an old forgetful old pm “i cannot recall,i dont remember”sad really do you remember Todd Barclay and you old office team member taped but with another party now billy or Simon or William so many names,SAD,

    • Corky

       /  August 1, 2017

      Just my point, Lurchy, Thank you for explaining what I was thinking.

  5. Gezza

     /  August 1, 2017

    Which one of these political gladiators being discussed is from Winton?