Greens and NZ First up and hunting

Both support for Greens and NZ First rising, and the resulting turmoil in Labour, are likely to see them hunting hard for votes seeking a credible alternative.

The three recent polls for the Greens:

  • UMR (Labour’s internal poll): 15%
  • Colmar Brunton: 15%
  • Newshub/Reid Research: 13%

If voters flee Labour even more the Greens could do even better than this, although in the past they have tended to get less votes in elections to what they get in polls.

In the 2014 election they got 10.7% so there’s a very good chance they will improve on that.

The three recent polls for the NZ First:

  • UMR (Labour’s internal poll): 16%
  • Colmar Brunton: 11%
  • Newshub/Reid Research: 13%

This is quite a spread which may indicate a lot of non-committed voters floating around, but the prospects are still good for NZ First.

In the 2014 election they got 8.66% and look certain to do better than that.

There’s a real chance that Greens, NZ First and Labour will all end up with similar levels of support, all in the 15-20% range.

Three equal-ish parties would make putting together a coalition quite challenging, especially if the previously senior party has a new leader – and if Little doesn’t go now he is likely to go soon after the election, which would put Labour in a difficult and weak position.

Both NZ First and the Greens are surging and sense big things are possible. But with a wingless lame duck Labour then they would have to look to National to form a credible coalition.

8 Comments

  1. Tipene

     /  August 1, 2017

    If there is a new Labour leader appointed today, I would expect support for both the Greens & NZ First to go up.

    • Corky

       /  August 1, 2017

      Yes, the dynamics of the election manoeuvring may change drastically.

  2. sorethumb

     /  August 1, 2017

    Does anyone remember an earlier controversy where Metiria T claimed to have been very poor (as a Maori) while white children had dolls houses (or something). Just that I heard her described as coming from an upper middle class family?

    • Corky

       /  August 1, 2017

      Thumbs, it’s cool to to poor in this PC world. You don’t dare have the audacity to dress well, speak well and have standards.

      You have to be a struggler from struggle street. Sue Bradford is a master of this art. Mick Jagger is another.

  3. PDB

     /  August 1, 2017

    Labour are bleeding at both ends – the more economic savvy of their supporters heading to NZL First at one end and the welfare bludgers at the other end going to the Greens to vote for ‘one of their own’ with promises of more money with no strings attached.

    Whether the Greens can get those welfare bludgers to turn their promised vote into actual vote come election day is another story.

    • Corky

       /  August 1, 2017

      P v V ?

    • Gezza

       /  August 1, 2017

      She’s a right rum do, the election, this time round. 😕
      Bugger the polls.