The Jacinda effect on other parties

The change of Labour leadership to Jacinda Ardern could have quite an effect on how the other parties campaign, and how the fare in the election.

National already had a battle to avoid needing NZ First, that doesn’t change but how they campaign will need a major rethink.

The Greens seem generally happy. It means a rethink of their ‘go for broke’ approach, because a recovering Labour improves their chances of getting into government. albeit with a smaller share of the vote than they were hoping for last week.

The biggest impact may be on NZ First, which could be why Winston’s response to the leadership change yesterday was gruff dismissal. If Labour come back into the reckoning that could significantly reduce NZ First’s opportunities and influence. Peters could easily attarct media attention from Little, but that will be much harder with Ardern.

Peters versus Ardern is a very different contest to Peters versus Little, and swings the pendulum significantly.

The smaller parties are at risk of being ignored even more.

It reduces TOP’s chances of picking up disgruntled voters.

Kelvin Davis’ elevation to deputy makes the Maori party’s battle with Labour quite a bit harder.

Davis must be a hot favourite now to beat Hone Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau and keep Mana out.

ACT have struggled for relevancy and support and that won’t get any easier.

Peter Dunne already had a major challenge in Ohariu and this probably makes things harder for him.

One thing is certain – the whole complexion of this campaign has dramatically changed, and it affects all parties in major ways.

And one aspect of change is probably bigger than Jacinda herself – the media. They had given up on Little long ago and dreaded a boring election campaign. They have promoted Ardern all year, helping get her promoted to deputy, and now to leader.

The media have played a major part in changes to date, and may be the deciding factor inb this election.

48 Comments

  1. No wonder WRP has his briefs in a knot. Jacinda is a populist style of politician – much like Peters. I guess it’s not inconceivable that the easily swayed, specifically blue collar and/or female voter would eschew the pin suited one for a polka dot apron. ( overthinking much!)

    His behaviour yesterday was petulant and quite pathetic. I wonder whether he’d just heard that NZF internals had him on the back foot in his home electorate, so thunderous was his visage. He cannot bear the attention on anybody else.

  2. David

     /  August 2, 2017

    She will make English look even duller and if she comes up with a few Corbyn like promises I think she will do really well. Could well turn the election back into a traditional 2 horse race.

  3. Corky

     /  August 2, 2017

    To think many of us considered our election would be a bore compared to the American sideshow of President Trumpy. All of a sudden we have entered the knock out rounds from an election run up that was proceeding at a predicable sedate pace.

    An aside- penultimate. What purpose does this word serve? I recently read it in a political context.

    • MaureenW

       /  August 2, 2017

      Uses one word instead of 3 to describe second-to-last.

      • Corky

         /  August 2, 2017

        What about third-to- last? Triultimate.?

        But why? Who wants to know about second to last?. Why is second to last relevant?

        1st.
        2nd.
        3rd.
        Penultimate.
        Last.

        • MaureenW

           /  August 2, 2017

          All good questions Corky lol.
          The last iteration of something before it was finalised. This presumes that updates and corrections made in 1st, 2nd, 3rd were carried forward to penultimate, and then subsequently agreed upon and finalised.

          • Corky

             /  August 2, 2017

            I can understand that in a mathematical context, but not a linguistic one. But then a linguistic context is basically a mathematical context in words allowing for a fluid transmission of information in a spatial way without resorting to written formula. But then as you say- a last stop before something is finalised provided 1st 2nd 3rd are cogent and progressed would also apply in a linguistic senses… umm, which is me repeating myself.

            Look, forget I asked. I’m off to buy K-Fry. A $12 quarter pack. Simple stuff for a simple guy.

            We didn’t have this conversation.

  4. High Flying Duck

     /  August 2, 2017

    I thought Paddy Gower was a bit OTT yesterday – he looked like needed a very cold shower to calm down.
    There will definitely be an initial bounce for Labour, but whether any momentum can be maintained through the rigors of an election campaign is debatable.
    Jacinda is good at fluffy one liners and has interviewed well in her first day. However she seems to fall over when pushed on the details of policy – as a few have mentioned, name one achievement in her last 8 years in parliament?
    Interesting times ahead though for sure.

    • Patzcuaro

       /  August 2, 2017

      Paddy OTT Gower, what is new.

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  August 2, 2017

      Gower is always OTT. Was he still breathing?

      • High Flying Duck

         /  August 2, 2017

        He was – very heavily.

        He seems to have an unnatural infatuation for the toothy one.

        I mean this is his attempt at serious analysis:

        “Those are the words that sum up Jacinda Ardern’s first press conference as Labour leader.

        And the word that must sum up National’s feelings right now – frightened.

        The press conference showed many things – first and foremost, that Ardern brings energy.

        She looks and acts like a leader.
        She has presence.
        She isn’t anxious – she looks in control.
        She doesn’t look reluctant – she looks ready.

        And importantly, Jacinda Ardern has got that valuable political ingredient – vibe. She has got serious vibe.”

        http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/08/patrick-gower-jacinda-s-on-fire-national-should-be-frightened.html

        I can’t imagine BE having sleepless nights over this…

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  August 2, 2017

          God, you’ve reminded me why I never watch him! I wonder why he feels he needs to tell us what she looks like. Does he think we still only have a radio?

  5. SteveRemmington

     /  August 2, 2017

    “Kelvin Davis’ elevation to deputy makes the Maori party’s battle with Labour quite a bit harder.”

    Hone is a shoe in Pete. The electorate will consider Kelvin a sitter for getting in on the list so a vote for Hone means a two for one deal.

  6. Tipene

     /  August 2, 2017

    “The Jacinda effect” translated:

    “The Party who abhors sexism and ageism, now happy to trade on the youthful sex appeal of their new leader”.

    FFS, you just couldn’t make this shit up.

  7. High Flying Duck

     /  August 2, 2017

    Has anyone else noted that Jacinda has dropped a few octaves all of a sudden and is projecting Aunty Helen more in her tone of voice?

    • Blazer

       /  August 2, 2017

      No.

    • Gezza

       /  August 2, 2017

      No – but now that you’ve mentioned it I’ll pay more attention.
      Helen was basically Rob Muldoon with boobs, & a lower voice.

      • Blazer

         /  August 2, 2017

        Take a break. ..embarrassing nonsense.

        • High Flying Duck

           /  August 2, 2017

          You mean the Labour party manifesto?

        • Gezza

           /  August 2, 2017

          embarrassing nonsense
          I know. That’s who you’re voting for, isn’t it?
          You’re among friends, B. You can say.

        • PDB

           /  August 2, 2017

          G: “Helen was basically Rob Muldoon with boobs”
          Blazer: ’embarrassing nonsense’

          Indeed, Rob Muldoon had far bigger boobs than Helen Clark.

          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  August 2, 2017

            Possibly:

            • Corky

               /  August 2, 2017

              That mower is worth big bucks now. 2 sroke, and had something called a primer and a petrol tap. So yesterday, everything is now automatic.

      • High Flying Duck

         /  August 2, 2017

        She had boobs?

    • duperez

       /  August 2, 2017

      Has anyone else noted that the Richter scale of stupidity has reached new heights since yesterday morning?

      • Gezza

         /  August 2, 2017

        What precise location are we talking about?

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  August 2, 2017

        Yep. Superficiality is now Lefty cool.

      • alloytoo

         /  August 2, 2017

        It’s an exponential scale & Yes.

        Will the personality cult of Jacinda be able to cover up the dearth of Policy?

    • Conspiratoor

       /  August 2, 2017

      Yes, i commented on this yesterday. Not an octave though, a diminished 7th. And hushed tones to convey sincerity and add gravitas. Someone has been in her ear the last few days, or maybe she just has a good instinct

      • High Flying Duck

         /  August 2, 2017

        I may have exaggerated a little, but the change is noticeable. She’s definitely changed her voice to sound more authoritative.

      • Brian Edwards….

  8. MR Potato Head

     /  August 2, 2017

    A new rider flogging a dead horse, doesn’t win the race. However it gives the illusion that the horse is not completely dead, the following election will be where the toil pay dividends. Go back to FPP! People are sick of the two horse race and society is far two complex to be run with some sort of cohesiveness by our current political system. But i guess that is what happens when the majority of politicians are brought up with an education based around BA (POL SCI) and listening to Split Ends on repeat……….Meh!

  9. Gezza

     /  August 2, 2017

    Just watched Jacinda go head to head with Bill on housing affordability, Question 2.
    Hope PG posts the clip.
    Bill was unflappable. But. Have to say, I reckon she’s heaps better than Andy!
    Be interested what anyone else thinks.

    • Joe Bloggs

       /  August 2, 2017

      Heaps better than Andy? Bit of a low hurdle… but I suspect she’ll surprise all of us over the next few months.

    • PDB

       /  August 2, 2017

      Only about a day into the race for her so she is fresh, thinking clearly and keen – see how she goes a bit later in the campaign when the pressure comes on, she can’t get her ‘beauty sleep’ and tiredness sets in………..

    • High Flying Duck

       /  August 2, 2017

      She’s been fairly easily batted away by everyone she’s taken on in the house so far so I can’t see why that would change unless she builds some magical confidence from being leader.

      Still struggling to see how she lost to Nikki Kaye twice in an historically Labour seat given she is the second coming of the messiah.

      • Because she isn’t?

        It’s hilarious how the left are all over the cult of the personality. She’s such a Miss Congeniality she makes Key seem quite pedestrian

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  August 2, 2017

        Typo HFD, should be “sixth coming of the messiah” since Queen Helen of Epsom.

  10. PDB

     /  August 2, 2017

    The ‘Hillary Clinton effect’ might take place where the MSM go too hard out favouring Jacinda and in doing so people get turned off by the bias and sick of the sight of her.

  11. Jacinda Arden babies question “most viewed” on Guardian uk website.

    Sheesh

    • MaureenW

       /  August 2, 2017

      Stunning wee write up about her and her boyfriend though ..