What if Turei does resign?

Metiria Turei’s gamble on using her experience of fibbing while on a benefit from 1993-1998 to highlight then plight of beneficiaries has backfired badly.

Turei has strong support for her crusade from some quarters, but she has disillusioned many others, leaving the Greens in a serious situation. A recent surge in support now looks certain to reverse, and it could turn quite bad – it will take a while for polls to show this.

Yesterday she said she would not resign, but by saying she won’t seek a ministerial position in the next government if given the chance, and by saying she had considered resigning (a mistake made by Little) she looks like a lame duck co-leader.

If reality gets through her Green bubble, and if polls suggest a collapse in Green support – anecdotally people are already saying they will switch their support from the Greens to Labour – then Turei may reassess he current situation.

If Turei resigns Greens will need a replacement, and the two top contenders are Marama Davidson and Julie Anne Genter.

If Davidson takes over I don’t think it will help Green chances. She is a far left activist who is unlikely to win back centre-left support from Labour.

Genter is a different proposition. She is probably Green’s most widely respected MP. She specialises in transport and infrastructure, one of this elections most contentious issues in Auckland at least.

Jacinda Ardern has already campaigned alongside Genter, in the Mt Albert by-election where they camopaigned together to show how well positive cross party politics could work. They seem to have a very good rapport.

Last week the alternative to bill English looked like this:

  • Andrew Little
  • Winston Peters
  • Metiria Turei
  • James Shaw

If Greens change co-leader the Labour-Green alternative will be:

  • Jacinda Ardern
  • Kelvin Davis
  • Julie Anne Genter
  • James Shaw

That combo has a lot more appeal to voters across the centre and left.

Winston may still be necessary but may have significantly reduced influence.

Turei turned this election on it’s head by starting her beneficiary campaign. At this stage she has hobbled the Greens and precipitated a Labour resurgence under Ardern’s leadership.

If Turei’s biggest priority is really to ‘change the government’ then I think the best way of fulfilling this ambition is to step down and to endorse Genter.

Bill English will struggle not to look old, stale and male against Ardern and Genter.

 

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13 Comments

  1. Alan Wilkinson

     /  August 5, 2017

    If Genter takes over from Turei the loony Left will be beside themselves with rage and despair.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  August 5, 2017

      I dozed off watching Winston trying uselessly to still get mileage out of that very unfortunate Clutha-Southland storm in a tea cup & woke up with the Parliament channel showing one of the debates. I switched it off & got on with mounting a handmower assault on Green Force in Backyard Province – making a comeback. But not before seeing a couple of minutes of JG getting stuck in to the Guvermint over some piece of environmental legislation or other – that dam thing I think. She was good. 🌿🌿👍🏼

      Reply
  2. chrism56

     /  August 5, 2017

    The new combination (if Turei resigns) may win back the soft vote that was swinging to the NZF and some of the people that weren’t going to vote but is there any evidence they are going to move heartland NZ – the Waitakere man of Chris Trotter? The latte set of Ponsonby and Lambton Quay is not even representative of their cities, let alone the country.

    Reply
  3. Tipene

     /  August 5, 2017

    This could be the first election in which three existing Party leaders at the beginning of the campaign get toppled before voting day.

    Littles gone, Turei is toppling, and Shaw, by his “double down” support of Tureis theft and fraud, looks wobbly.

    Birds of a feather, really do flock together.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  August 5, 2017

      Can’t see the Greens ditching Shaw when they have to be dragged kicking and screaming to get rid of Turei. Yes, he’s well out of his depth but so are the lot of them.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  August 5, 2017

        At the moment, when the pair of them front up to the media, James Shaw reminds me very much of Sean 🐶 Spicer (💔) …

        Reply
  4. MaureenW

     /  August 5, 2017

    Why do they need to replace her? What is the point of having co-leaders – Is it part of the Green rules?
    Can Shaw not lead or co-lead effectively on his own? What a dopey idea from a dopey party.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  August 5, 2017

      If he co-leads on his own, he’d have to talk to himself! People would think he was barking mad. The other one’s been talking to herself & look where that’s headed – it’s not going to be pretty …

      Co-leadership is a core value of that Party. Fitsy & Donald made it work well. Greens need to re-find their mojo.

      Reply
      • MaureenW

         /  August 5, 2017

        Yes, but what’s the point. Is neither fit for leadership, or are both so superb, you couldn’t split them? Or something else again .. dopey.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  August 5, 2017

          I dunno, Maureen. I’m just going to watch what happens now. Shaw looked like he might have had some political & economic nouse, but I was never going to vote for them anyway & I’d give to ecological causes thru Greenpeace or environmental lobby groups if I felt strongly enuff. Metz has cut James off at the knees. All I can see is toxic fallout settling over the members & other MPs.

          Reply
  5. Missy

     /  August 5, 2017

    Whilst I think Turei should resign – or be sacked, a part of me hopes she doesn’t resign or isn’t sacked.

    The longer she stubbornly refuses to resign, and Shaw supports her, the worse it will get for the Greens, and (hopefully) Labour by association.

    Reply
  6. Genter screeching at the NZ voter….. YES PLEASE.. National strategists would love that.

    For Labour this is a huge opportunity. They know its a slim shot to get the treasury benches, they now finally realise the Greens have been trying to destroy them via things like the MOU, ably supported by the old Alliance cadre whiteanting Labour from within. Labour have already started turning on the Greens – Kelvin has given them a very public slap.

    This election for JA and KD is about returning Labour to being the uncontested leading Party of the Left – and to achieve that it could get very nasty towards the Greens

    Past the popcorn

    Reply
  7. sorethumb

     /  August 5, 2017

    Kind of sad that in the past we had Presbyterian values whereas now, the former values party is promoting, free love (without contraception) and free money.

    Reply

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