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These two tweets happened to end up adjacent on my Twitter feed.

 

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33 Comments

  1. chrism56

     /  August 6, 2017

    The fact that everyone in the Labour picture has Teeshirts and banners shows that they are a lot better at stage managing things than National – that’s all. The more interesting photo would be the one behind the photographer. Who is the audience?

    Reply
  2. PDB

     /  August 6, 2017

    What are you trying to say? The ‘rockstar reception’ is a close shot with a tight bunch of kitted-out Labour supporters/volunteers standing directly around her and obviously brought in for the occasion (including kids far too young to vote)?

    Reply
    • Keep ignoring a phenomenon that is unfolding at your (or National’s) peril.

      Unless the current momentum is changed the it looks likely the polling question will be how far into the 30s Labour rise to, and whether National can stay out of the 30s.

      Reply
      • PDB

         /  August 6, 2017

        Simply put perspective is needed – I’m sure if National wanted to import 300-400 National supporters to it’s launch it could have as well. Jacinda will give Labour a boost in the polls but how long for and to whose detriment? There is no evidence at the moment that National supporters will now vote for Labour in any great number, hence your ‘question’ of whether National will slide into the 30%’s is rather mute at the moment. And what was Ardern actually promoting? Is more cost promises, rate rises and a tax on Auckland motorists really a vote winner and the best way to go about Auckland’s traffic woes?

        You’re buying into the hype and avoiding the reality that Labour hasn’t changed, only its leader has. If the general public are dumb enough to do the same then they deserve the govt they get.

        Personally my preference is for National to rule with existing parties, that has always been a long shot and my second preference is for Winston to go with the left as his brand is toxic.

        Reply
        • I’m not ‘buying into the hype’, I’m observing it. I haven’t seen anything like this sort of transformation before, nor this sort of excitement for a campaign before.

          It’s happening. Don’t blame me for reporting it.

          Reply
          • PDB

             /  August 6, 2017

            The superlatives you have freely used to describe the ‘hype’ in the past few days says otherwise.

            Hype is hype unless it transfers into votes, more specifically in this election a switch of supporters from National to Labour. As we have no polls out yet showing that movement we can only observe a massive, and perhaps unprecedented, MSM swing/effort behind Ardern in an effort to get Labour back into the game. At present we can only safely assume that Labour will pick up some votes from the Greens and possibly NZL First.

            Again perspective is required until we have evidence of real change in voting habits. Looking beyond the hype would be a good start.

            Reply
            • You tell me what you see behind the hype.

              I see National barely visible, plodding away the same old way. Versus a clearly revitalised Labour. And Greens clearly have problems – or is that just hype too?

            • PDB

               /  August 6, 2017

              I think the fact you jumped on the two pics above as some sort of direct comparison (without checking the facts) when National by all accounts had the roughly the same number at their announcement (300 odd) suggests you have lost all objectivity & have fallen for the MSM hype. Again what do you expect National to do in such a one-sided media frenzy? I can’t be the only one seeing this MSM campaign as over-the-top bordering on counter-productive to Labour. Comments on the many pro-Labour articles suggest this may be the case.

              The Greens and Labour are one for this election campaign, their MoU demands it so the Greens problems are Labours problems. Their ethical problems in supporting Turei are very real. Maybe somebody should ask Ardern again (as she has refused to answer) what Turei has done for her to discard her from any ministerial position? If it is so ‘bad’ why then is Turei all OK by her to be an MP? Maybe also ask does she also rule Turei out of being deputy PM which the Greens want?

            • You’re failing to see the facts.

              There is a very different vibe coming from the Labour and National camps. You try to talk it away as much as you like but it won’t make it disappear.

              National have a major challenge to compete, and they are showing no sign of stepping up yet.

              There’s seven weeks to go and things could still change dramatically again, but Labour have little to lose and a lot to gain, if National keep doing little they could lose.

            • PDB

               /  August 6, 2017

              And I keep asking you – what do you suggest National do during a week of such biased and one-sided MSM reporting? Do you not acknowledge it has been so over-the-top that it could put people off? Especially as the MSM is not highly trusted by New Zealanders.

              Your ‘facts’ are currently ‘hype’ that hasn’t turned into anything but Labour probably clawing back support from its likely govt partners.

              Best to let them all get it out of their system and go on the offensive next week until voting day. I think you seriously under-estimate National who enjoy a massive volunteer number and large election budget. If anything this wakes them up and motivates the support base.

            • Yes I do think the Media coverage has been over the top and clearly disproportionate.

              Labour appear to have been forced into a very risky leader change but so far it has worked far better than anyone could have predicted.

              But how things works is well known by campaign teams. If National don’t find a way of combating Labour’s momentum they could be in trouble.

              Grizzling about it won’t resolve the challenges.

            • PDB

               /  August 6, 2017

              I suggest waiting until the end of week two before seeing how much longevity the mythical ‘Jacinda effect’ really has. No doubt Labour’s poll result will for now go up to around 30%, probably at the expense of the Greens and NZL First. The MSM is a fickle beast who likes nothing more than building someone up only to bring them down the next day.

            • Gezza

               /  August 6, 2017

            • Blazer

               /  August 6, 2017

              Tend to agree. Early days. .yet.

  3. Patzcuaro

     /  August 6, 2017

    Ardern is energizing the Labour campaign which is something English is unable to do. Doesn’t mean Ardern will make a good PM only time will tell on that one but she is able to energize the Labour vote. I do predict that she will be PM in the next 4 years.

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  August 6, 2017

      I don’t think English was trying to energise the Labour campaign?

      Reply
      • Patzcuaro

         /  August 6, 2017

        I hope he is not trying to energize the Labour campaign and as he is having enough trouble energizing the National campaign. I’m sure Labour would rather he stuck to his own campaign too.

        Reply
  4. Dour defensive action:

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  August 6, 2017

      PG: “Dour defensive action”

      So pointing out to the public that Labour is suggesting putting a petrol tax on Aucklanders is somehow ‘dour and defensive’?

      Reply
  5. It’s not all bad for National:

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  August 6, 2017

      Doesn’t count because Bill English didn’t have a large group of supporters strategically positioned behind him.

      Reply
      • duperez

         /  August 6, 2017

        And anyone who said his next couple of months has been knocked off the rails is wrong.

        Reply
    • I’m surprised no Jacinda groupie has claimed they are just waiting for a train.

      Reply
  6. artcroft

     /  August 6, 2017

    I guess Winstone knows his chance of being PM is gone. Jacinda looks set to reach 20 – 30% in preferred PM category for the next polls. And one way to badly start a new govt would be for Winnie to crown himself king instead of public favourite, Princess Jacinda.

    In fact if JA’s trajectory is still rising on Sept 23rd then going with National would probably see NZF destroyed in the following polls, which would be succeeded by unrest in the ranks. Cue NZF bloodbath. (yes please)

    Reply
    • Conspiratoor

       /  August 6, 2017

      Premature ejaculation or just wishful thinking. This ones worth putting in the time capsule

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  August 6, 2017

        Christ – that time capsule of yours must be the size of a bloody shipping container by now? 😳

        Reply
  7. Bill English was apparently described by Kelvin Davies as having the personality of a rock. As he is running a country, not a TV Game Show, I am rather inclined to see that as a compliment.

    Reply

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