Newshub/Reid Research poll

The latest (July 2017) Newshub/Reid Research poll:

  • National 44.4% (-0.8)
  • Labour 33.1% (+9.0)
  • NZ First 9.2%  (-3.8)
  • Greens 8.3% (-4.7)
  • TOP 2.0
  • Maori Party 1.5%
  • ACT Party 0.6%
  • United Future 0.1%

A big move up for Labour. Game on.

National are hanging in there.

A big drop for Greens, and this won’t fully take into account what has happened over the past few days, Especially Turei’s resignation as co-leader.

And quite a bit down for NZ First too.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 27.7% (up 1.9)
  • Jacinda Ardern 26.3% (up 17.6)
  • Winston Peters 10.0 (down 1.9)

A huge jump up for Ardern.

Labour will be rapt. National will be more concerned. Greens will be dreading the next poll.

Talking of which, UMR reportedly has Greens down from 15 to 8, and Labour up from 23 to 36%.

 

 

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34 Comments

  1. artcroft

     /  August 9, 2017

    I’m life and politics it’s not enough to be good. You have to have luck as well and just look at the stars align for Jacinda. could be PM yet.

    Reply
  2. artcroft

     /  August 9, 2017

    All the boys and girls on Labours list, who were in no hoper’s land last week can tell there current boss to kiss their a**es. 😉

    Reply
  3. PDB

     /  August 9, 2017

    I think National have held up pretty well considering this poll was taken after a change in Labour leadership and wall-to-wall positive MSM coverage of Ardern. Margin of error stuff.

    Everything else is pretty much as predicted in terms of Labour taking back some ex-Labour voters from both NZL First (told you Al) and the Greens.

    We are essentially in the same position I think we will be in on election day – Winston deciding who to govern with. My hope is that he decides to go with Labour as no govt can be stable whilst he is involved.

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  August 9, 2017

      have to agree…National barely…dented…not good.

      Reply
      • PDB

         /  August 9, 2017

        You have to wonder with such a positive/promotional week for Ardern is 33% the best Labour can hope for (excluding a major crisis or scandal happening to National)?

        I tried to tell Patu his prediction of NZL First being 20% was toast as soon as Ardern became leader but he wouldn’t listen.

        Reply
      • Joe Bloggs

         /  August 9, 2017

        Give her another couple of weeks – this poll kicked off the day Ardern took the reins and in the past few days she’s maintained plenty of momentum…

        Reply
    • Kevin

       /  August 9, 2017

      The Left playing musical chairs. The Right have barely lost a vote.

      Reply
      • PDB

         /  August 9, 2017

        Ardern’s preferred PM figures being practical the same as English’s may be a concern for the right as it could be used as a catalyst for party votes to slowly ebb Arderns way.

        First time I think in a long time the 2nd and 3rd preferred PM % combined rate is higher than the National leader’s.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  August 9, 2017

          Maybe, but people have probably gone right off the idea of a co-PM? 😳

          Reply
    • High Flying Duck

       /  August 9, 2017

      National have stayed steady but maintained their slow deflation.
      Could be the Ardern honeymoon but it started before then. More likely they are keeping powder dry for the campaign proper. But national trend to fade a bit come election date.
      Will a Bill English scandal emerge from Winston’s musings?
      Will Jacinda fade or grow when the pressure comes on?
      Will the greens stay above 5% as more comes out about MT and her bludging.

      There are far too many twists and turns to make predictions but for now it is more game on than it has been in a decade…

      Reply
  4. Ray

     /  August 9, 2017

    Interesting that not only has Green vote started to free fall but NZ First slipped a fair bit and Winston has hardly had the problems they have had.
    Obviously the Jacinda effect has sucked back votes, possibly women’s.
    Long may it last.
    Interesting times and who were the pundits who said it would be a boring.election?

    Reply
  5. Tipene

     /  August 9, 2017

    What is it with women and their negative effect on politics??

    2017: Metiria Turei wiping out support for the Green Party.

    2014: Rachel MacGregor wiping out support for the Conservative Party.

    2012: Bronwyn Pullar wiping out Nick Smith from Cabinet.

    Etc, etc.

    I blame the suffragette movement (cue bricks being honed to be thrown in my direction).

    Reply
    • pickled possum

       /  August 9, 2017

      What is it with … Men and their negative effect on Women ???

      Shows you how seriously men take their politicking … these days.

      You forgot Helen of Troy.

      Reply
    • PDB

       /  August 9, 2017

      Somehow you missed Cunliffe, Little, Len Brown etc etc

      Reply
      • Tipene

         /  August 9, 2017

        Cunliffe got taken out by his tryst with Katie Bradford – a woman.

        Brown got taken out by his tryst with Bevan Chuang -a woman.

        Litlle got taken out by Jacinda Ardern – a woman.

        Coincidence?

        I think not.

        Reply
        • PDB

           /  August 9, 2017

          In all those instances the men were to blame……..Cunliffe (if true) and Brown should have kept their pants up and Little was just useless anyhow.

          Reply
        • If Cunliffe and Brown had trysts they have themselves to blame, they were in the positions of power.

          Little took a gamble promoting himself alongside Ardern. That may have turned out very well for Labour, thanks to Ardern’s ability to step up and outperform the four preceding male leaders.

          Reply
  6. Corky

     /  August 9, 2017

    Mikey Hosking opined that the Left are only taking votes off each other while Nationals voter
    base has remained reasonable solid as this poll shows.

    In a rare misjudgement, Mikey has forgotten about the huge pool of people who wouldn’t usually vote, who may now after being captured by the ‘Jacinda effect.’

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  August 9, 2017

      Quite right, Corks. But then, Mikey would, wouldn’t he? Not always the sharpest knife in the block.

      Reply
    • PDB

       /  August 9, 2017

      The ‘Jacinda effect’, after unprecedented MSM promotion, still hasn’t beaten Labour’s best party vote polling % under Cunliffe yet.

      Reply
  7. Reply
    • Gezza

       /  August 9, 2017

      What fkn poll? 😳

      Reply
      • pickled possum

         /  August 9, 2017

        Jez Geez language pleaze …
        Keep up and don’t go getting all sooky la la on me …. again.

        The poll …. Agent 86 is taking … then Paddy and Agent 86 go under the cone of silence and they discuss The Poll … See???
        Any rocket scientist knows this is how it rolls with
        Paddy.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  August 9, 2017

          Hey sis. 👍🏼 Fkn is short for freakin. What word were you thinking of 😳❓
          I never pay any attention to that idiot, or tv3. So, thanks for that. 👍🏼

          Reply
  8. Metiria – why, why, why? You doing SOOOOO well. Why quit now? The conversation on poverty was front page news.

    Deeply, deeply disappointed Metiria has half pie, kind of, almost but not quite done the right thing – the right thing as defined by the Greens being to actual resign from parliament completely.

    At least while she stays the stench of hypocrisy and dishonesty will linger around the Greens.

    Post election could be interesting – will a true green focused party emerge? Focused on the environment and being centrist on social policy and fiscal management? If it does I could even be interested in it…

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  August 9, 2017

      Not whilst the welfare-fraud supporting Green MP’s remain – can the other two get an apology and come back now?

      Reply
  9. sorethumb

     /  August 9, 2017

    Dennis Frank 45.1
    9 August 2017 at 7:28 pm

    Yeah. Just saw Hosking make a good point (normally don’t watch him): NZF dropped 4% – due to the Ardern effect because they did nothing to alienate their supporters. How much of the Greens drop was due to it, and not a negative verdict on Metiria?

    Sheep returning to the Labour fold, having wandered into the wrong paddocks. So we can read them as a traditionally soft part of the Labour base that had lost confidence in the party & have now regained it. I had predicted online that the Ardern effect would boost Labour 6% with half coming from each of NZF & Greens. I underestimated it, but if she did pull equally from both, Turei’s stand actually only cost the Greens 2%. These people will probably return before the election.
    ,,,,,,,
    In that case the big Green rocket (Bowalley Road) wasn’t going anywhere?

    Reply
  1. Turei resigns as co-leader | Your NZ

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