UMR poll

Labour’s private polling from UMR is being leaked, probably by a jubilant Labour party.

Apparently:

  • National 43% (up 1)
  • Labour 36% (up 13)
  • Greens 8% (down 7)
  • NZ First 8% (down 8)

UMR tend to be hard on National and good for Labour but taking that into account this this is quite close to tonight’s Newshub poll.

Greens have taken a hit and Labour have picked up their discarded support

Surprising to some NZ First has also dropped back but I think they had been picking up disillusioned Labour leaning voters who have been attracted back by Jacinda Ardern.

This poll gives a good indication of the impact of Ardern becoming Labour’s leader, but won’t take into account the latest upheaval in the Green Party, especially Metiria Turei announcing she will step down as co-leader and will withdraw from the Green list. She still intends standing in the Te Tai Tonga electorate at this stage.

But this is just one of two snapshot polls in a very volatile campaign environment, with the second party leader standing down in just over a week.

Expect more changes that could go in any direction for any party.

24 Comments

    • Gezza

       /  August 9, 2017

      Probably more spent on poster & signage this time round than ever before 😕

    • swordfish

       /  August 10, 2017

      God, that takes me back !!! The halcyon days of mid-July. It was a different World back then. And I honestly think we were happier as a society. An idyllically happy and peaceful era.

  1. PDB

     /  August 9, 2017

    Going on UMR’s poor track record the Newshub poll seems a more accurate picture in terms of Labour & National support currently – I don’t believe NZL First is currently as low as 8% either.

    • I wouldn’t be surprised at all if floating voters are dumping NZ First and going back to Labour.

      Ardern versus Peters is a stark contrast.

      • PDB

         /  August 9, 2017

        I did say that on the other thread however UMR historically tend to understate National and NZL First support and overstate Labour’s support.

    • sorethumb

       /  August 9, 2017

      There is at least some shy Tory effect? Commonly a lady with a foreign accent calls.

  2. Jacinda has done zip, nada, nothing except front a well orchestrated coup and media blitz. When the pressure comes on will be when we can judge her.

    Right now its an IPO of a highly pumped stock – people are buying on expectation of good things and glossy marketing materials right now. Is she Feltex or NZ King Salmon? My pick is probably Tegel – surges initial, fall backs badly but long term becomes an OK stock…..

    • High Flying Duck

       /  August 9, 2017

      She’s been positive and confident as well as being the beneficiary (no pun intended) of the Greens misfortune.
      From a very (VERY) low base she is a big step up.

      However she is not tested as yet and it will be interesting to see how things pan out in the campaign.

      I’m not writing her off yet especially with the soft coverage she’s getting.

      But if any other Labour MP’s speak or if Jacinda is made to give detailed defence of their policies i think things may swing away from Labour.

    • PDB

       /  August 9, 2017

      She has made two major announcements, both include implementing taxes and both have no mention of how much those taxes will cost. On top of that she said she is to look at implementing a capital gains tax after the election but wont campaign on it. The other thing she has mentioned is that she will announce in the future something about higher tax rates (after all Labour is promising the earth and someone will have to pay for it all unless we go for a shed more borrowing).

      I think we are seeing a pattern here…….

      • duperez

         /  August 9, 2017

        I think we are seeing a pattern of people being disconcerted. I think that some who a short few months back were in cruise mode are now a tad discomfitted.

        • PDB

           /  August 9, 2017

          Long way to go yet – once things settle down & now her honeymoon is over will Ardern be able to keep it going? I’ve no doubt Labour has actively gone after the Greens behind the scenes in the last week so will the Greens fight back?

          Currently neither major party is overall better off, National still need Winston, Labour still need the Greens and Winston.

        • By Jacinda? Hahahahaha

          She has done nothing zero except give Labour supporters relief from a sequence of bumbling incompetents since Helen squared ruled with an iron fist.

          Who is Jacinda’s iron fisted CoS?
          How will see go defending Kelvin when he inevitable goes to far?
          How good is her policy knowledge? – cause Bill knows his detail and will shred her if she can’t remember

          It will be interesting when the grind of the daily hustings hustle starts, to see if she can keep the positive coverage rolling. I’m sure Bradford and Vance will tried to make it so, but Jacinda strikes me as error prone based on watching her in the house for the last few years….some errors even your “team” in the media can’t help you avoid the fallout from…

          • Missy

             /  August 10, 2017

            Jacinta makes me think a bit of Sadiq Khan – all style, very little (no) substance.

            Basically all about the selfie & photo op, and a lot of catch phrases, but doesn’t appear to do anything or have a grasp of details. Khan would have lost if he had been up against a more competent opponent, and more people had voted.

            Even if she does do well the shine will soon rub off.

            • Gezza

               /  August 10, 2017

              Her biggest problem is going to be her team. I wish more people watched these gladiators at Question Time. Phil Twyford & Grant Robertson have got up in recent days and cranked out a question or two & and then a series of supplementaries with smarmy smirks on their faces thinking they’re making hits on the government while Nick Smith just stood up and competently & confidently just questined their numbers & batted them for six on the substantive issues of building & housing.

              Tbh, I can’t figure out why Smithy cops so much flak from even righties for his performance in his portfolios. 😳 Watching him in The House, and in a couple of news items when he’s been out and about open Housing Projects n stuff recently, he’s actually quite the wit, very knowledgeable about their housing & environmental policies, making a plug for young people to get into construction as a career cos it’s booming, and actually a very competent debater.

            • Missy

               /  August 10, 2017

              Just noted the spelling error (probably auto correct) should of course be Jacinda!

              Now to go and read G’s (no doubt) excellent comment. 🙂

      • Not a pattern – a trend broad and deep in keeping with Comrade Jacinda’s deeply held socialist conviction. She is a tax and spend left to her core…

        CGT should be put to her hard – get her to make a definitive “I won’t do it” statement. And if she won’t hammer her on it…

    • Blazer

       /  August 9, 2017

      Sounds like Chorus. ..with a little help from the govt eh Dave. English is like the Feltex directors. ..future looks bright. ..until reality. ..strikes.

      • Why don’t you stop working there Blazer and you can stop complaining….

        English is more your boring utility stock like genesis – solid but not a star leader…

  3. sorethumb

     /  August 9, 2017

    Jacinda looks like a Justin Trudeau to me.
    Today’s economy and society is like gridlock. We are post-growth. We have people writing about urban issues telling us the only problem is NIMBYism or urban boundaries which hold up agglomeration effects while they ignore the non-agglomeration of a distant island.

  4. oldlaker

     /  August 9, 2017

    What are the chances another leader/co-leader/deputy falls before the election? It’s beginning to look like the French Revolution… no one is safe!

  5. The most interesting aspect of the UMR poll is that National is up one point. Given all the media saturation coverage of Ms Ardern, I’d suspect they will be privately pleased with that result.