Who will I vote for?

Early voting opens in just under a month. Election day is in six weeks, on 23 September. A lot has happened in politics over the last two weeks, and some of those changes have affected my thinking on who I might vote for.

Here is my current thinking:

National: still possible, if I decide that I want the least change from current policies, and if I think the risk of a Labour led alternative is too great. I’m ok with English as Prime Minister and generally ok with the current Cabinet (albeit with some concerns).

Labour: possible now, if I decide that National is too stale and a change will be good for the country, and I don’t see too many problems with a coalition also involving NZ First and Greens (a big concern). Jacinda Ardern has stepped up to the leadership role well, but the Labour caucus still looks weak and the influence of Grant Robertson a concern.

Greens: from unlikely to less likely, unless they look at risk of missing the threshold and I want to help keep them in Parliament – I’ve always supported a Green voice in Parliament on environmental issues in particular but also on pushing for better social policies (without wanting to go to the socialist extremes they favour).

NZ First: still no. Peters is too undependable, can’t be trusted to keep his word, won’t commit prior to the election, too many dirty attacks on opponents. The NZ First caucus is weak, I don’t like Ron Mark and I don’t think Shane Jones adds anything positive.

Maori Party: still possible if I think it’s worth helping them retain a second seat via the list, I don’t agree with a lot of Marama Fox’s policy preferences but I think she contributes a strong alternative voice in Parliament (and she’s prepared to listen and change her stance if the facts justify it).

ACT Party: possible if it could get them a second MP to help David Seymour, who I think has achieved a lot this term starting with a party in disarray.

United Future: looks to be a wasted vote so still very unlikely.

The Opportunities Party: quite possible if it looks like they could get close to or over  the threshold. They are the best chance of adding fresh input into Parliament, and would probably be less risk than NZ First or greens holding the balance of power.

Spoiled vote: I see no need to deliberately spoil my vote.

No show: possible but unlikely. I have voted in every election this century (for four different parties) and am likely to front up at the local booth on election day (I will leave my decision until the last day I can vote).

I’m aware that some staunch party voters my be puzzled by my approach to deciding who to vote for.

Going by past comments about my way of voting and about floating voters some may be appalled.

But I think many people have a range of reasons why they might vote one way or another, and this group generally decides the outcome of an election.

One of the strengths of democracy in New Zealand is the relative lack of highly charged partisanship.There are a lot of softly committed or uncommitted voters who vote based on how they see the merits of the options put before them in an election.

14 Comments

  1. Blazer

     /  August 13, 2017

    ‘the relative lack of highly charged partisanship.’….you would never get that impression…here.

    • I’m talking about generally, not in a few corners of the Internet.

      Most people ignore most politics most of the time.

      • Corky

         /  August 13, 2017

        I like a man who understands reality. On Saturday a went along to support a five year old relly play ripper rugby.

        Parents and kids were having a great time. My guess is close to 50%(maybe more) of those in attendance wouldn’t know who Mikey Hosking is. They would think Whale Oil is whale oil and The Standard is something snobby people talk about.

  2. David

     /  August 13, 2017

    National for me, I would like to see the investment approach to welfare bed in and evolve as that is a huge life changer for some which I have seen up close and personal. If you keep running the economy competently you have so many other choices/options available.
    Labour have just put a pretty face to a pretty woeful caucus and I am not impressed with the back of the envelope water tax. Morgan is loopy, Winston..been there done that, ACT maybe I like the results charter schools are getting for our left behind kids.

    • Blazer

       /  August 13, 2017

      why would the investment’ approach to welfare work?Treating everything as a business unit to make a profit is a discredited theory from the 80’s =pure neo liberal spin.Welfare is and should always be a safety net,hopefully short term.A punitive regime as the Natz have introduced is not what is needed.Heres a real life example…X gets very ill and is admitted to hospital…his condition will need 2-3months off work to recover.His employer has his job available for him to resume when ready.What help can he access in the interim?.Only one avenue…stand down and apply for the Job seekers allowance …thats it!

      • David

         /  August 13, 2017

        I was referring to such programs where they mapped out with stats where for example a girl whogets pregnant before the age of 18 and what her likely life would be. Based on this they calculated its far better to throw loads of resources at her now in terms of keeping her in school, makingbsure baby is immunised and enrolled with a GP and providing her with a mentor to support her etc which is hugely costly but gives her and baby much better prospects in life. just an example Blazer.

  3. NOEL

     /  August 13, 2017

    During the elections across the ditch the ABC produced an interactive where the voters with the true power were identified. Started with all eligible voters reducing down as categories such as partisan voters etc were removed ending with a small pool of swinging voters.
    Would love to see someone do similar here.

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