1 News/Colmar Brunton – Greens 4%

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • National 44% (down from 47)
  • Labour 37% (up from 24)
  • Greens 4% (down from 15)
  • NZ First 10% (down from 11)
  • Opportunities Party  2% (no change)
  • Maori Party 2% (up from 1)

So National sort of hanging on, Labour way up and Greens way way down into threshold territory.

This poll was conducted 12-16 August so after the Green crisis,

The last poll was taken 22-27 July 2017, before Ardern took over and before Turei stepped down.

  • Don’t know 9%
  • Refused 4% (down from 11)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 30% (up from 28)
  • Jacinda Ardern 30% (up from 6)
  • Winston Peters 5% (down from 10)
  • Andrew who?

These are rounded results, full results usually take a few days to become available.

 

22 Comments

  1. artcroft

     /  August 17, 2017

    Scene: Six months from now Setting: Pike River Cue: Lights, Camera, Action.

  2. Gezza

     /  August 17, 2017

    No surprise to me the Greens have nose-dived well below 8%.
    If they’re lucky they’ll bottom out there. If they’re lucky …

  3. In terms of blocs…. its as you were within the error of margin. Winston is King Maker and potentially King if he holds at 10%

    What this does for Labour is generate a potential “winner” smell. But Jacinda needs to front Bill one on one in a debate with policy command at a detail level the thing that will tell….

    Frankly I still favour a vote for chaos and letting Jancinderella form a government. Winston is poison and will cause chaos in an administration. If a scenario of dysfunction arises and Winston pulls the I quit line as a minister we could end up back at the polls in 2019 and not September/October 2020

    Not pretty for Bill English unless National manages to convince the voters that chaos is not something they want and a surge comes late for the Blue team and they hold the treasury benches…

    From a Labour viewpoint they really don’t want the government this time. Strategically they are better off running close and then letting National have one more term – it would guarantee them at least 2 terms form 2020 maybe 9 if J Ardern can build some gravitas ….

    Going to be a fun 5 weeks or so till d-day…

    The Greens will probably rally back to 6-7 percent with a quiet and respectful campaign. How all the stalwart Lefties who supported the fraudster must be choking on their copious bile right now: Staring into the abyss at below 5%

    I wonder if Labour have thought about not running in a solid red seat to give a high profile green a shot at a electoral seat so no matter what the greens will be back? Or will they go for a kill shot and try and extinguish a rival for leadership of the Left?

    • Blazer

       /  August 17, 2017

      the only thing you are right about…National as usual have set up an absolute clusterfuck for Labour to deal with, as they usually do….Housing,homeless crisis,productivity going backwards,NZ’s international rep trashed….debt repayments at record levels..winning this election is tantamount to a ..poison chalice.

      • artcroft

         /  August 17, 2017

        Yeah, Labour’s not up to govt. Let’s give Bill another three years. He’ll be able to keep the lights on at least.

        • Blazer

           /  August 17, 2017

          The Natz know its all over..Collins/McClay ticket so the word on the street goes.

          • PDB

             /  August 17, 2017

            You obviously ‘hear stuff’ where Zedd ‘hears stuff’…………….

      • Corky

         /  August 17, 2017

        I think the quip to National from an outgoing Michael Cullen that ” they had spent all the money” shouldn’t be forgotten. In fact Labour has signalled more of the same should they be elected.

        • Blazer

           /  August 17, 2017

          not much to spend in the usual term…unlimited money’ to spend in..reality.

      • Really? As always you ignore the reality of the situation when National took the treasury benches. An economy already in recession then the GFC then the Christchurch quakes. Yip the Nats should have slashed spending to fit the much reduced income streams or raised taxes massively……both would have been wrong approaches….. borrowing and maintain levels of support for those who needed it was a humane approach……

  4. duperez

     /  August 17, 2017

    What happens if Dunne loses, the Maori party don’t win any seats and are below 5% and TOP is also <5%?
    National, Labour, NZF and Seymour would make up the numbers, but on today's polling how would seats pan out?

    • duperez

       /  August 17, 2017

      Would pan out -2 by the look of it! 🙂 Is that scenario not feasible?

  5. Blazer

     /  August 17, 2017

    National will come out with a big bribe …very soon…will it work..Bills like Barker …a loser…Bennetts days in the sun ..are..numbered.

    • PDB

       /  August 17, 2017

      From a guy who said polls don’t matter……..Labour-NZL First will be like watching Space Shuttle Challenger taking off in 1986.

  6. PDB

     /  August 17, 2017

    TOP will be disappointed not to have moved anywhere considering the Greens carnage – surely now people can see they are toast.

    National pretty much the same in the mid 40s, Labour hovering up more of their political allies votes – though one might wonder if a few of these % are the one’s who say they will vote left but can’t be assed voting on the day.

    Nothing changes, Winston still is and will be kingmaker on the day. National would be better off sitting in opposition for a term and refreshing the front bench/leader rather than pander to Peter’s who will be a disaster in govt.

    I just hope the Greens get over 5% and Winston and Ardern need them to form govt. No doubt the Greens are blaming the two blokes who made a stand rather than Turei for their sad state.

    • Blazer

       /  August 17, 2017

      re the Greens..I was a huge fan of Meteria….the problem seems to be ..she was too…she became the Green Party…the Winkelmann suits have come home to…roost.They will rise again when humility and real policy prevails over…’celebrity.Harsh and I never thought I could be so.C’est la vie.

      • “..I was a huge fan of Meteria….” there’s your problem right there. Nothing to do with Winklemann and everything to do with dishonesty, deceit and defrauding.

  7. Zedd

     /  August 17, 2017

    oh dear…… 😦

    • PDB

       /  August 17, 2017

      In the famous words of Blazer – Turei, a beat-up by right wingers, nothing to see here………

      • Blazer

         /  August 17, 2017

        its called absolutely brutal re adjustment.Never said what you claim.

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