Roy Morgan poll – August 2017

The latest Roy Morgan poll (NOTE: it is actually more out of date than the recent Colmar Brunton poll):

  • National 42.5% (down from 43)
  • Labour 32.5% (up from 30.5)
  • Greens 9% (down from 13.5)
  • NZ First 11.5% (up from 8)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (no change)
  • ACT Party 0.5% (down from 1)
  • United Future 0%
  • Conservative Party 0%
  • Other 2.5% (no change) – will include TOP

Polling period 31 July-13 August.

The Colmar Brunton poll was 12-16 August.

Turei stepped down as Green co-leader on 9 August.

RoyMorgan2017August

21 Comments

  1. PDB

     /  August 18, 2017

    Quite different figures for the Greens (I personally don’t believe they are below 5% – more nutter’s than that would vote for them) especially but the same thing remains – Winston decides the next govt.

    • Jonathan Roe

       /  August 21, 2017

      No need for an apostrophe in “nutter’s [sic]”.

  2. Gezza

     /  August 18, 2017

    Polling period 31 July-13 August.
    The Colmar Brunton poll was 12-16 August.
    Turei stepped down as Green co-leader on 9 August.

    Useless.

    • Out of date for sure. It adds the the historical picture.

      I posted it here because it’s of interest and is likely to get misused.

      • Jonathan Roe

         /  August 21, 2017

        All political polls are out of date, given your rationale Pete. They’re reported at least 1-2 days after the last respondents answered. The Roy Morgan poll was more accurate than the OneNews/Colmar one at the last election, and it’s one of the last three polls made public so has to be on the rolling average mix. It’s every bit as valid as the Colmar one, which is biased against folk who don’t have a landline.

  3. Jonathan Roe

     /  August 21, 2017

    Hi Peter

    Why didn’t any of the mainstream media (MSM) report the Roy Morgan poll, more accurate than the Colmar Brunton and Reid polls at the last election? Also, calls mobile phones, and had less than half the proportion of non-respondents than Colmar’s latest poll. And Colmar garnered 50% of its respondents on a Sunday (massive skew to retirees, and maybe non-church goers, haha). Before you say, “You’d have to ask the MSM that”, I have. Not one of them has replied.

    In light of the UMR poll leak over the weekend and the Roy Morgan poll, I’d say the Colmar poll is an outlier. And should be reported relative to this. But then that wouldn’t fit their neoliberal agenda. would it.

    Best regards
    Jonathan

    • High Flying Duck

       /  August 21, 2017

      UMR is internal Labour Party polling and is almost always biased against National and for Labour compared to other polls.

      Most media commission their own polling:

      TV One commission the Colmar Brunton poll – which contrary to what you say is generally the most accurate.

      TV3 commission the Reid Research polling.

      The NZ Herald use DigiPoll.

      Fairfax use Ipsos

      Roy Morgan are independent and jump all over the place. Generally this poll is the most unreliable. It does get reported on by all media, but is not given the prominence of the medias own polls for obvious reasons.

      National use Curia but unlike Labour do not tend to leak the results.

      • Jonathan Roe

         /  August 21, 2017

        Dear Duck, I didn’t fall off the last Christmas tree. I’m well aware of the polls – but only three of the five you mention are still being made public.

        On what basis can you claim that Roy Morgan is the least reliable? It called the National vote closest at the last election, and polled two of the four top parties within a percentage point of their actual vote. The same as the Colmar Brunton poll. The best performer was the defunct Herald Digi, which got three of the top four parties within a point. The worst of the five were Fairfax and Reid.

        Maybe use some data to back up your claims rather than parrot the neolib balderdash of Beefed Up Whale Blob and other Tory wets.

    • Time will tell. The best indication by far is Curia’s poll of polls

      • PDB

         /  August 21, 2017

        Maybe not as good at the moment due to the massive shift between Labour and the Greens.

      • Jonathan Roe

         /  August 21, 2017

        Why Curia? All these poll of polls do is average an arbitrary number of the latest polls. There’s nothing smart about that. Problem with this is that no two polls are taken at the same time, and they use different sample sizes and methodologies.

        • Poll of polls has far more relevance at any given time than individual sources.

          • Jonathan Roe

             /  August 22, 2017

            And there’s a heap of them out there, all doing the same thing. Curia’s just one pebble. But the older the polls in their basket, the less relevant they are. Fair comment?

  4. Zedd

     /  August 21, 2017

    yes, what happened to greens @ 4% ( rock bottom)?

    estimates are that there is a ‘hardcore 8%+’ who will vote green, but they cant assume/expect it, <5% is a figure to avoid on 23/9 😦

    btw.. pdb: nutter's ? i thought we were 'the loony left' ?? 😀

  5. robertguyton

     /  August 21, 2017

    The Left is soaring (has to be said – just look at the weekend’s event where Jacinda (and Helen) drew a massive crowd, while Bill stood out in the cold with a small crowd of supporters.

    • PDB

       /  August 21, 2017

      Labour had their official party election launch with the truly converted all in attendance – hardly a fair comparison.

  6. robertguyton

     /  August 21, 2017

    And now Dunne’s gone. House of Cards, folding…

    • Jonathan Roe

       /  August 21, 2017

      The Cockatoo in a Bow Tie has had his last nibble of his cuttlefish. I think NZ is about to be hit by a Jeremy Corbyn moment. Bring the election on, baby!

      • High Flying Duck

         /  August 22, 2017

        Corbyn lost.

        • Jonathan Roe

           /  August 22, 2017

          No he didn’t. He wasn’t in power but he increased the centre left vote massively. Labour had been written off a month or so before the election.

          • High Flying Duck

             /  August 22, 2017

            On that basis, I hope Jacinda ‘wins’ like Corbyn did…maybe she needs to hug some terrorists to build up her cred.