Recent polls for the Greens

The big dip in Green support shown in the Colmar Brunton poll published on Thursday caused consternation amongst Greens, with the usual claims of it being a bogus poll, or an outlier.

Some thought that it was proven inaccurate by the Roy Morgan poll published yesterday (Friday), but they failed to notice that while published after Colmar Brunton’s poll just about all of the RM polling was done before CB.

Both those pollsters plus Reid Research have show Green dives this month. Recent polls for the Greens:

  • RR 15 June: 12.5%
  • CB 1-5 July: 11%
  • RM 26 Jun-9 Jul: 13.5%
  • CB 22-27 July: 15%
  • RR 20-28 July: 13%
  • RR 2-8 August: 8.3%
  • RM 31 Jul-13 Aug: 9%
  • CB 12-16 August: 4.3%

All three polls show a significant dip in Green support in August, at the same time as Metiria Turei’s story as a beneficiary unravelled and disunity in the party became apparent.

RNZ’s last 4 poll average chart:

From Ardern turns the worm, but Green losses threaten left

The CB poll this week is the only one to be done after the resignations of Turei as co-leader and the withdrawal from the list of two Green MPs. We can’t be sure whether it was an accurate snapshot of Green support this week, or if it is an outlier.

It could be rock bottom for the Greens, as James Shaw claims, they and could bounce back by the time we get another poll.

Newshub (Reid Research) may be next to publish another poll, that would be useful to get an idea of how bad things are for the Greens.

27 Comments

  1. Some poll analysis and mostly Green leaning discussion at The Standard:
    https://thestandard.org.nz/that-5-threshold-and-recent-polling/

  2. PDB

     /  August 19, 2017

    Some people have commended RNZ for going after both Barclay (National) and Turei (The Greens) and using this as some sort of example of how unbiased their political coverage is. But looking at it who benefited by both stories being chased?

    For a change Slater is right – Turei’s demise in the end was likely to be a massive Labour-led hit. Prior to that RNZ and the MSM were mainly sympathetic to Turei’s position and it was only after the Greens went up in the polls to the detriment of Labour that RNZ received further info on Turei that ultimately saw her quit rather than have that info go into the public domain.

    ‘Red radio’ is alive and well even if it means throwing the Greens under the bus.

    • “Turei’s demise in the end was likely to be a massive Labour-led hit”

      The Green implosion was largely self-inflicted.

      It appeared to include an attempted hit on Labour, which backfired massively.

      Labour retaliated when it became clear it was a left wing war.

      Labour will have had nothing to do with Turei’s mission. Nor with Graham and Clendon jumping ship, Nor with most of what happened.

      • PDB

         /  August 19, 2017

        Turei’s ‘mission’ initially was not attacked by the MSM, in fact it was spun in such a way that the Greens support went up. Graham & Clendon jumping ship had nothing to do with Turei jumping – the rest of the party was still behind Turei after that occurred.

        It was only when presented with questions by RNZ that Turei decided to go rather than answer them – I’ve no doubt these questions were a part of a Labour-led hit (it’s even suggested this information came from the family of an ex-Labour MP who happened to be grandmother of Turei’s daughter) to sink Turei and ultimately cannibalise their vote.

        • Things were turning sour before RNZ presented Turei with questions. That was the beginning of the end.

          An RR poll in late July had Greens at 13%, and by mid-August they had dropped to 8.3%, before the RNZ-Turei thing.

          “I’ve no doubt these questions were a part of a Labour-led hit”

          Any evidence?

          • PDB

             /  August 19, 2017

            It is obviously my opinion looking at the facts.

            PG: “Labour retaliated when it became clear it was a left wing war.”

            Any evidence of direct ‘retaliation’ by Labour against the Greens or a ‘left wing war’?

      • One of a kind

         /  August 19, 2017

        Don’t forget Pete that the grandmother was Labour through and through.

        What caused the final demise of Turei was the information about to come out from the family about Turei’s support.

        This would not have occurred without the blessing of the matriarch.

        I suspect Turei got a phone call – resign or else we go public. Then you go down bad. Ask RNZ for a copy of the questions they put to Turei.

    • Patzcuaro

       /  August 19, 2017

      Both Barclay and Turei were authors of their own misfortunes.

      Nobody told Barclay to record one of his staff, he did that of his own bat. His mishandling of his staff lead to the Confidential monetary settlement.

      Turei probably looked back on her period as a solo mother through rose tinted glasses, magnifying her struggle. When she went public to highlight the plight of beneficaries she omitted several pertinent facts which had a negative impact on her story.

      Both their downfalls can be slated back to how they handled the situation once all the facts came out. Neither really showed any remorse or humility, this more than anything else lead to their resignations.

      People make mistakes, it is how they handle themselves after that is important and decides their fate.

  3. Tipene

     /  August 19, 2017

    Slater et al are trying to claim a Labour-led hit against the Greens.

    It didn’t happen, although this story suits their ongoing political conspiracy narrative.

    Human nature happened – those family members who were accused of being cruel & heartless scrooges when Turei was a “beneficiary” with a young child went “fuck you, bitch” and blabbed their brains out to the MSM, attaching a few photos to all and sundry along the way.

    Labour might have been the benefactors, but they were a non-player in the downfall.

    Just another desperate attempt at relevance by Slater – nothing else.

    • PDB

       /  August 19, 2017

      ‘those family members’ were part of an ex-Labour MP’s family – to dismiss out of hand the Labour party being the driver behind this information eventually being released would be naive.

    • Kevin

       /  August 19, 2017

      Have you ever been correct about anything?

  4. Chuck Bird

     /  August 19, 2017

    The average of those polls shows that National will almost certainly need NZF.

    • PDB

       /  August 19, 2017

      Has been that case for some time – National should be brave and publically rule out working with NZL First and let the public decide the next govt based on that.

      • Blazer

         /  August 19, 2017

        very good….you really want National on the opposition benches.Onya.

        • Ray

           /  August 19, 2017

          If the election gives a close result and Winston ends up the “kingmaker ” my guess is who ever takes his bait will struggle to win the next election or even see out three years.

        • PDB

           /  August 19, 2017

          Yep – I’ve been quite clear that I’d rather National sit on the opposition benches for a term rather than go into govt with Winston/Jones. National were never going to be able to win a 5th term and the damage Winston can do in a single term could see the larger party in govt with him outcast for another 3 terms.

  5. Zedd

     /  August 19, 2017

    when they hit 8%, i thought it was rock-bottom.. but now below 5% !

    but nzf did too.. came back stronger.. but fingers crossed we are NOW at rock-bottom, only one way from here !! :/

    • PDB

       /  August 19, 2017

      I personally don’t think they are under 5% but overall things won’t change for the Greens until they get rid of the MP’s that are far more socialist than environmentalist. They lost two environmentalists just recently and only one (Turei) of the socialist brigade. The fact that the remaining MP’s still support Turei and her now obvious lie of being so poor she had to steal taxpayer money shows how out of touch they remain.

      • the matrix is all around you pdb..

        btw; they maybe green by name, but they have always been ‘green-left’ (look after the planet & the people on it) by their nature.. 🙂

        • PDB

           /  August 19, 2017

          No, the Greens are the Mana party in green drag. Turei would be a perfect fit for Mana. No true environmental party would have ousted two of it’s most environmentally aware MP’s because they spoke out against welfare fraud whilst rallying behind the fraudster.

        • if you want blue-green (if there is such a thing) there are other parties who claim this designation.. maybe try ‘search’ ?

          anything has to be better than the status quo.. even; act…..

          • PDB

             /  August 19, 2017

            Doesn’t even have to be ‘blue-green’ – just needs to be totally focused on improving environmental issues and willing to work with whoever is in govt to further those aims.

            • Zedd

               /  August 19, 2017

              thats what they already do; home insulation etc.

              but they are not going to join a party either, who support the totally opposite view, to their basic principles of; environmental & social justice

            • PDB

               /  August 19, 2017

              Supporting a person who stole taxpayer money for greed and not need isn’t fighting for ‘social justice’ – hence their huge drop in support.

        • Zedd

           /  August 19, 2017

          you hear that mr anderson.. that is the sound of inevitability.. the sound of…

  6. Zedd

     /  August 19, 2017

    @pdb

    I think theyre called: TOP.. the ones youre looking for

  1. Recent polls for the Greens — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition