UMR – the poll Labour reveals sometimes

Labour have chosen to only reveal their internal polling (done by UMR) sometimes, and with a lack of details, so it is not possible to compare it against other polls properly, and it is difficult to see trends clearly.

They have given some journalists a glimpse of their latest UMR poll. It is indicative of a closing of support between National and Labour, but needs to be viewed with some reservations.

According to NZH:  Labour’s polling closes gap on National

The Labour Party will hold its campaign launch today with its own poll putting it just three points adrift of National – and bringing heartening news for Labour’s potential support partner the Greens.

The Herald has seen the latest poll results from UMR for a poll which ended on August 17.

That had National down three points from the week before to just 40 per cent.

Labour was up one point since the week before to 37 per cent – the same level of support it had in the One News Colmar Brunton poll released this week.

Summary of the results per NZH:

  • National 40% (down from 43)
  • Labour 37% (up from 36)
  • Greens 8% (no change)
  • NZ First 9% (up from 8)

The poll shows less movement among the smaller parties than the Colmar Brunton.

But no details given.

…the UMR poll traditionally has National at a lower level than most public polls.

The UMR poll canvasses 750 voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.6 per cent.

This UMR poll is one snapshot in a quickly changing political environment.

Labour has obvious cause for renewed optimism, and National should be more concerned than they were last month.

Going by these numbers National would probably be able to form a government with NZ First but Labour would be unlikely too.

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10 Comments

  1. artcroft

     /  August 20, 2017

    Its amazing what the change of leader has done. There’s nothing about policy in this. Just a desire for change and the accompanying sense of hope. If Labour win it will be interesting seeing them run a govt.

    • Yes – Twyford on The Nation and Robertson on Q+A were vague and poor. But Ardern is attracting most of the attention and a lot of support.

      I think the leaders’ debates wlil be very important, to see if Ardern can step up with some substance.

      • Blazer

         /  August 20, 2017

        Twyford and Robertson were a match for Adams and Joyce imo.

        • Adams had difficulty defending National’s efforts on housing, not surprisingly, but Twyford kept talking over her, which detracted substantially from any arguments he tried to make. He was certainly not following the positive lead of Ardern.

          Joyce diverted a bit but he knows many facts and details about economic matters. Robertson was too often vague and appeared smarmy to me, he has a habit of a sort of smirk.

          • Blazer

             /  August 20, 2017

            what salient facts do you think Joyce presented against critique from..Robertson…Joyce has a high rating..’smarmy,arrogant’ factor himself.

          • Gezza

             /  August 20, 2017

            Both Twyford & Robertson have consistently come across to me as relatively unknowledgeable & smarmy in Question Time all year. They & Andy both handled supplementary questions reading from scripts which tended to repeat or still cover the original question, often mindlessly plodding on completely ignoring that the Minister had given an effective answer that rendered all their supplementaries pointless.

            Only Annette seemed to be able to do a proper job of asking supplementaries based on her first question being intended to actual leading somewhere more awkward for the Minister, and adapted to what the Minister last said.

            Labour never seem to have a grasp of the government’s numbers.
            I might have a look at The Nation & Q+A though. Joyce always sounds like a flim flam man to me, but he does know his numbers. I haven’t really formed much of an opinion about Adams.

            A pity the leaders’ debates don’t start earlier.

  2. UMR. Good for -4 Labour and + 4 for Nats. I’m still picking Nats 45-47

  3. Patzcuaro

     /  August 20, 2017

    The question is can English excite on the campaign trail, Adern certainly can. It is going to be a real contest, National is beginning to look a bit tired but can Labour sway enough voters to snatch the prize.

    • Gezza

       /  August 20, 2017

      The big worry is that the prize is probably going to be Winston.

  1. UMR – the poll Labour reveals sometimes — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition