Election 2017 – PREFU day

With one month until the 2017 election today is the day the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) comes out.

This will signal the amount of money available for more election promises, policies and bribes.

It is likely to accentuate the ‘tax cut’ versus ‘more taxes’ argument that looks set to differentiate National and Labour.

National will sharpen their pencil to try to attract (aka buy) some votes.

Labour will need to sharpen their presentation of their taxing and spending policy package. They have already signalled increases in both but will need to provide more specifics.

NZ First and Greens already want to spend far more than is ever likely to be available.

Stuff  Live: Opening the books, housing

6 Comments

  1. PDB

     /  August 23, 2017

    As Winston might make this a ‘change year’ with a new govt let’s remind ourselves of the Labour PREFU of 2008 for the incoming National govt as a direct contrast to today’s announcement.

    *A decade of deficits on the medium term projections.
    *Deficit forecast in 2008 of $31 million up to $3.2 billion in 2012/13 – returning to surplus only in 2017/18.
    *Debt forecast to peak at 30.1% of GDP (even without the earthquakes).
    *24.3% by 2012/13 and 30.1% by 2018/19.

    • Blazer

       /  August 23, 2017

      did they predict the earthquakes as well.Be interesting to see just how accurate projections have been over the last 30 years.Not very,I would venture.

      • PDB

         /  August 23, 2017

        If they had been able to predict the earthquakes Labours hand-over would have been far worse.

        In this case projections were eventually incorrect only because National got into power and dramatically improved the economic situation, and more quickly. In Cullen’s favour was that the books had relatively low debt, but so did most countries at that stage due to some very prosperous years for the world economy leading up to that point. NZ govt debt today is still low when compared to other Nations post-GFC, and especially so when you factor in the earthquake costs.

        Though projections announced today are slightly lower in terms of overall surpluses the books are in excellent order and the govt in power post-election will be in a far better place financially compared to when National took over in 2008. Bill English is a big part of why that is possible.

        • Blazer

           /  August 23, 2017

          Cullen was NZ’s best finance minister in the modern era…by far.Why do you think he was knighted?.The Cullen Fund has been a success,as has Kiwi saver,Kiwi Bank.National to their shame do not like any of these initiatives.They want profits to go offshore.

          • PDB

             /  August 23, 2017

            Cullen had some of the world’s most prosperous years for decades in the 2000’s – even Ardern could have made a good fist of being finance minister in the years he was in the role. He also inherited a country in surplus and already on the up from the previous National govt. When it came to 2008 Cullen was proud that ‘the (financial) cupboard was bare’, there was a billion $ ‘hole’ in ACC, and he also left us with a financial dog called ‘Kiwirail’. On top of that he left behind a legacy of big spending (election bribe) projects that couldn’t be reversed due to the backlash that would create – working for families & free student loans.

            English had a GFC and earthquakes to deal with, ACC was losing money, student loan repayments weren’t being chased up and we still came out of all that mess far quicker and in a better off state than most other countries.

            English over Cullen any day of the week.

            • Blazer

               /  August 23, 2017

              I see …Labour are..’lucky’…and National are …’sound economic managers’…pull the other leg…it plays a quintet by…Schubert.