Most capable of running the Government?

A Herald-ZB-Kantar TNS poll shows that while Jacinda Ardern has transformed excitement for Labour she has a way to go to convince enough voters she’s good enough to run the country.

NZH: Bill English well ahead of Jacinda Ardern as most capable leader

It is consistent with the feedback we get on the ground, particularly when people can see the link between the benefit for them and their family and a good economy.

Ardern was elected Labour leader on August 1 after the resignation of Little in the face of plummeting polls.

For National and Labour this looks much in line with recent poll party support.

Interesting to see Peters not benefiting from the recent political upheaval.

The Greens never rate highly as capable of running Government – many people like them to have a say, but not too much say.

The Herald-ZB-Kantar TNS polls don’t have a track record so it’s difficult to judge their accuracy.

  • The survey was conducted between August 16 to 21 and the sample size was 1000. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 per cent.
  • It is an online survey by ConsumerLink which runs on the Fly Buys panel of 120,000 active members, one of the largest in New Zealand.
  • Sampling is nationally representative and is then post-weighted by age, gender and region to match the population but only those aged 18 and over are included.

I’m just listening to comments on RNZ on Ardern along the lines of ‘likeable person but same old party’. That is something Labour will have to overcome, and National will try to exploit,.

43 Comments

  1. It looks like the political honeymoon is over for Ardern and the hard work is ahead of her and Labour to maintain their momentum, or at least hold up their renewed levels of support.

    • Similar to Best to Run the country poll

      Roy Morgan poll August 2017
      AUGUST 25, 2017
      Polling Company: Roy Morgan Researc

      Dates: 31 July to 13 August 2017

      Party Support

      National 42.5% (-0.5%)
      Labour 32.5% (+2.0%)
      Green 9.0% (-4.5%)
      NZ First 11.5% (+3.5%)
      Maori 1.5% (nc)
      ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
      Mana 0.0% (nc)
      Projected Seats

      National 52
      Labour 40
      Green 11
      ACT 1
      Maori 2
      NZ First 14
      Total 120
      This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu.

      Coalition Options

      CR – National 52 + ACT 1 = 53/120 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
      CL – Labour 40 + Greens 11 = 51/120 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
      C – NZ First 14 + Maori 2 = 16/120
      On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

      Country Direction

      Right 62.5% (-0.5%)
      Wrong 23.5% (nc)
      Can’t Say 14.0% (+0.5%)

  2. Barry Soper carefully tries an alternative to lipstick on a pig.

    Okay so they’ve painted the front door even if the house is still the same but could it be the paint now beginning to show signs of flaking?

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11910584

    • Loved that one!

      Saw this on KB this morning – care of redeye

      “I got my Car rego bill yesterday. $158.00. I looked back and in 2009 it was $379.00 for the very same car.
      2 ticks blue.”

      Anyone ever remember a drop in rego from Labour?

      • Blazer

         /  August 25, 2017

        A nice 2 bedroom flat in New Lynn was $270 a week in 2007,same flat now over $400….!2 XX Blue….bastards.

  3. robertguyton

     /  August 25, 2017

    It doesn’t look at all as though Jacinda’s popularity has lessened – wishful thinking and concerted erosion by the likes of you and other political conservatives is all you are reporting with your “honeymoon over” comments. Remember Key and the constant cries that his honeymoon was over? Now you’re playing that role. Next, you’ll be calling her “Taxcinda” – it’s all a bit feeble, Pete.

    • PDB

       /  August 25, 2017

      You sound worried RG…………and rightly so. The opening of the books, and the goodness contained within those books, has put the focus again on the economy and away from which leader looks the best, who looks younger, and which is more popular on social media.

      Key and Ardern are often compared but there is no comparison – Key was wildly popular for years (and not just with National tragics), was on top of policy, economically knowledgeable, and could deviate (sometimes getting him in trouble) from his talking points to discuss other matters in a conversational, natural manner that endeared him to many.

      Ardern in comparison has ridden a wave of positive MSM publicity and received a ‘bump’ that all new leaders get including Shearer and Cunliffe. The left have been able to rally around one leader at the detriment of the Greens. She is not fronting tax issues by deferring many of their tax proposals to a working group after the election. She is also rigidly sticking to her talking points which is annoying some MSM who are wanting to talk about a wider range of issues. An example was her being asked for an opinion on the Reserve bank moves and her answer was she didn’t have an opinion because it ‘just happened this morning’.

      Every time one of her minions pops their head above the trench they are hiding in we are reminded of the ingrained problems within Labour; whether that be the boorish Davis on TV or calling an MP ‘Dr Death’, the vindictive/nasty Parker threatening to punish farmers further in a meeting to discuss water tax, the dodgy Hipkins doing Aussie Labors bidding, or Robertson telling a totally different tax story to his leader.

      The MSM is a fickle beast that likes nothing more than building someone up so that they can knock them down. At the end of the day Winston will still choose the PM with only National having the very slimmest of chances of avoiding this fate by increasing their vote into the high 40%.

    • Is it possible that actual election result may end up sitting in this arena?

      32% is, after all, still one hell of a jump (6-8 points) from where they have been for many years.

      The early fascination and media positive wall to walling of Jacinda A. capitalised on months of her face appearing in every woman’s magazine the country has. While it isn’t PC to bring up Mr Morgan’s rhetorical description of the Labour Party and Ardern’s adornment of same, people need more than a candidate’s self-ascribed relentless positivity when there’s a country to run and to all intents and purposes, rocking along quite nicely.

      However let’s see whether under the tutelage of Linda she can tone down her youthful earnestness, that “auditioning for a school play” demeanour and be a bit more Helen-ish.

      Still a long way to go.

      • PDB

         /  August 25, 2017

        Winston will go with Labour, the weaker larger party that he can manipulate more easily. The only thing that might change this scenario is if the Greens are needed to form govt and refuse to just sit on the sidelines and provide their support from there.

        • Blazer

           /  August 25, 2017

          Winston wants to DROP Coy tax to 25%…that will meet your ..approval.

      • Corky

         /  August 25, 2017

        ‘Youthful earnestness.” Damn fine Wordsmithery.

        • Corky

           /  August 25, 2017

          Damn fine make up on Jacinda, too. She has it all…except a competent political party standing behind her. I wonder who is next off the rank should the party become disillusioned with her?

        • Blazer

           /  August 25, 2017

          sure is when describing a 37…y.o.

  4. PDB

     /  August 25, 2017

    Essentially all we have seen from Labour is big spending promises built on the back of a thriving economy & surpluses provided by the current National govt.

    Going forward it seems they are going to try and keep their head above water economically by taxing everything, & everyone, they can get away with – much of it through stealth by using a tax ‘working party’, consisting of people personally appointed by Ardern/Robertson, to push through their tax agenda.

    They mention the word ‘vision’ a lot but where are all the policies from Labour to keep the economy thriving? Tax and spend is not ‘visionary’ nor is it new for the Labour party.

  5. surprisingly my parents are switching to labour, mother works in a hospital…… so she sees whats happened on the coal face this last decade of stagflation in health….

    • Corky

       /  August 25, 2017

      That’s extremely unfortunate, Shane. Buy mum some chocolates, get an autographed picture from Bill, and ask her to reconsider. I would hate her vote to be the one that sends our class to the poorhouse.

      • Blazer

         /  August 25, 2017

        so who you gunna vote for now after digesting the bad news…productivity stagnant for the last 4..years.

        • Corky

           /  August 25, 2017

          You must have been absent from class when I explained I wouldn’t be voting because no political party has the foresight or fortitude to ban Muslim immigration.

          No matter how many westerners are killed in Europe( another attack stopped yesterday), these idiots think we are immune and Islam on the whole is a religion of peace.

          Who in their right mind votes for traitors? People prepared to piss our civilisation down the gurgler?

          NOT ME!

    • OMG. That literally astounds me Shane. Nats have done so much especially in hospitals. Nats have boosted all areas of health – first off:

      Emergency Depts

      “Thousands of lives are believed to have been saved by a six-hour wait time target for hospital emergency departments, which researchers say has helped halve the number of ED patient deaths.

      Findings released today in the New Zealand Medical Journal also reveal that EDs are running more efficiently than before the Government introduced the target in 2009 – patients are now waiting around three hours less to be admitted to a ward.

      The findings have been heralded as “extraordinary” by researchers.

      The study analysed nearly 5.8 million ED presentations between 2006 and 2012 and more than two million elective admissions from 18 DHBs.

      It calculated a 57 per cent drop in ED patient deaths and 28 per cent less crowding in emergency departments.

      Patients were waiting an hour less to be admitted to ED and nearly three hours less to be admitted to a hospital ward.

      But the most dramatic finding was the significant fall in mortality among ED patients, equating to 700 fewer deaths in 2012 alone, Ardagh said. “This is an extraordinary finding.”

      He labelled the reduced waiting times an “important and useful intervention in New Zealand health care”.

      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11854105

      • Cancer

        n 2008 only 65% of people requiring cancer treatment got it within four weeks. Many had to go to Australia to get treatment. Today every DHB has 100% of people needing cancer treatment getting it within four weeks.

        SMOKING

        The best way to reduce smoking, is for young New Zealanders not to take it up. In 2007 15.7% of 15 to 17 year olds were smokers. In 2013 this rate had reduced to 8.0%. Source: Ministry of Health Public Health Survey

        Elective Surgery

        In 2008 the public health system provided 118,000 elective operations. In 2013/14 it was 161,933. A huge increase of 44,000.

        PUBLIC HEALTH WORKERS CHANGES

        A 17.8% increase in nursing numbers and 26.8% increase in doctor numbers.
        3,289 more nurses, 1,589 more doctors and 1,000 fewer health managers and administrators since 2008.

        IMMUNISATION

        2008 only 76% of two year olds were immunised (on time). In 2014 it was 93%

        • Blazer

           /  August 25, 2017

          you cannot look at those figures in…isolation.There are variables.You have cherry picked statistics.

          • “The reality is that almost every significant health indicator is better now than in 2008. A few are:

            Youth smoking rates halved
            Youth hazardous drinking rates halved
            100% of cancer patients now getting timely treatment, compared to 65% under Labour
            94% of patients being seen within six hours at ED, up from 70%
            A 42% increase in the number of elective surgeries
            An 18% increase in nurses and 27% increase in doctors
            Immunisation rates up from 76% to 94%

            Now if you go back to what Labour achieved despite their massive spending increases, well the answer will be not much. In fact the number of elective surgeries declined from 2000 to 2006.”

            http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2016/05/labour_still_thinks_spending_not_results_is_what_matters.html

            • Blazer

               /  August 25, 2017

              any stats on homelessness,home ownership,suicide rates,child hunger,inequality/poverty?

            • alloytoo

               /  August 25, 2017

              Blazer.

              1. NZ’s homelessness measure is extremely broad compared to the rest of the OECD. If we compare apples with apples NZ compares very favourably with the rest of the OECD.
              2. Homeownership can be primarily laid at the doorway of Labour Proxy’s Len Brown and now Phil Goff probably in anticipation of CGT tax.
              3. Suicide rates are static in NZ. (ran the numbers myself)
              4. Child Hunger? There’s a stat for that? National introduced food schemes, raised the benefit above inflation and is embarking on social investment programmes using IT to target at risk children.
              5. Inequality is static (though why it’s a issue is beyond me)
              6. Poverty is in decline (globally, as well)

          • Corky

             /  August 25, 2017

            Maybe be you could find solace over at ‘The Standard’. I’m sure 100% over there would agree with you.

            I doubt Alan Wilkinson would want a bar of your korero here, though.

            • Anther brilliant Nat Stat:

              The teenage birth rate in New Zealand has halved since 2008, according to new figures released today.

              The number of teen births as a proportion of total births in Gisborne was the highest in the country at 10.1 per cent, followed by the Hawke’s Bay region at 7 per cent and Northland 6.5 per cent.

              In Auckland, 3.4 per cent of the women who gave birth last year were teenagers.

              The proportion of teenage births was lowest in the Otago region at 2.2 per cent.

              Statistics New Zealand data showed the teen birth rate had dropped each year since 2008 when it was 33 births per 1000 women aged 15 to 19. Last year the rate dropped to 16 births per 1000 women in that age group.

          • Blazer

             /  August 25, 2017

            lets see your suicide stats..have you broken them down….youth,farmers….and so on?

            • PDB

               /  August 25, 2017

              https://figure.nz/chart/KAAMVQhvxxhFoLPF

              Labour 2008 – Youth suicide rate 16.4 per 100,000 people – highest in OECD.

              National 2017 – Youth suicide rate 15.6 per 100,000 people – highest in OECD.

              Overall suicide rate under the current National govt has slightly declined;

            • PDB

               /  August 25, 2017

              Most up-to-date figures for the NZ youth suicide rate (2016) was 16 per 100,000 people – still lower than when Labour were last in power. The 15.6 per 100,000 quoted in a 2017 report actually used the figure from 2010.

  6. Corky

     /  August 25, 2017

    This poll confirms what talk back is reflecting. People who think are asking what has Jacinda got apart from good looks and a killer smile ( good looks that will fade fast as a PM).

    Jacinda is picking up fluff votes from the potential Left voter pool. She is yet to convince an educated middleclass who are doing, on the whole, quite nicely, thank you very much.

    No matter how you do the sums, Bill is proven, but Labour has a dearth of talent. That’ll be hard to counter during the leaders debate. I doubt Jacinda will be able to match Bills points, and will rely on repeating platitudes and policies everyone is sick of hearing about. She will start sounding like a robot…albeit a good looking one.

    • Blazer

       /  August 25, 2017

      this poll is actually just part of Nationals campaign.Its actually a fuckin stupid question.National have decided to go hard out on promoting English as the ‘safe,experienced ,manager of the economy against the inexperience of Adern.Compliant MSM helping things along.FFS Muldoon was always a supposed financial wizard and the economic messiah ,constantly promoted by National and look how that …turned..out.

      • PDB

         /  August 25, 2017

        “Its actually a fuckin stupid question.”

        You’re right, they should have asked: “Which party leader is more popular on social media?” and whoever gets the most votes we then assume has the best credentials to run the economy.

  7. robertguyton

     /  August 25, 2017

    Bill on 45% and Jacinda on 32% – that’s an astonishingly high result for Jacinda! She’s not been in Government for 9 years, she’s young and untested, yet 32% of people polled believe she’d be better than Bill (or Winston) – amazing! Her star keeps rising and rising!

  8. Blazer

     /  August 25, 2017

    I personally don’t think Jacinda Adern can match the achievements of Bill English in govt….record homelessness,houses beyond the reach of ordinary workers,record borrowing,crony capitalism,hungry children,a smoke and mirrors economic fantasy predicated on immigration and housing inflation,productivity stagnant…..there is no way she can emulate that.

    • PDB

       /  August 25, 2017

      You are a good reminder of how out of touch the far-left is – please continue!

      • Blazer

         /  August 25, 2017

        at least you don’t try and deny,reality.Good..boy.

        • Brown

           /  August 26, 2017

          Watching this exchange of views is interesting. The right leaning come up with facts and the left leaning react with slogans and swearing. I wonder if that paints a picture?

          The heading graph is all that matters – competency to manage. The youth and glossy pictures are irrelevant. I don’t find Ardern attractive and remember how even Clarkula was tarted up to look good in a photo. The reality is that Ardern has never had a challenging job so has no experience appropriate to run anything. Organising a camp for young Marxists once doesn’t count for anything.

          Labour in their present state are too incompetent to even run their own affairs.

  9. I rather like to think that the government is run by parliament and that the leader has just one vote like the rest ! The Leader should be little more than a chairman and a mouthpiece in a democracy.

    • sorethumb

       /  August 25, 2017

      Globalisation and political correctness has changed everything.

  10. sorethumb

     /  August 25, 2017

    English runs a population ponzi – not hard to do.

  11. lurcher1948

     /  August 25, 2017

    Who took the poll, Mike Hosking?? I wouldn’t trust any poll run by NZME, their bias is so obvious, and they are backing “their”man Simon English to the hilt.

    • •The survey was conducted between August 16 to 21 and the sample size was 1000. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 per cent.
      • It is an online survey by ConsumerLink which runs on the Fly Buys panel of 120,000 active members, one of the largest in New Zealand.
      •Sampling is nationally representative and is then post-weighted by age, gender and region to match the population but only those aged 18 and over are included.

  12. Zedd

     /  August 25, 2017

    I think youz again have forgotten, we are under MMP not FPP;
    also the last 8 years were under ‘Team KEY’. I look forward to ‘Team Jacinda’ (Team being the operative word, with no ‘I’ in it) running this ‘ship or state’ :/

    … still nearly a month to go.. a very long time in politics !