Votes by age and income

Interesting charts showing voting patterns for parties based on the average age and income of the area they voted (most probably live in the same vicinity) – from Age, income, and votes

This gives us an approximate indication of the age and income of those voting for different parties.

Might as well say it: the older and the richer your area, the more likely you are to vote National, and the less likely you are to vote Labour. At the same time, even in their weakest spot, National still score 22%, which indicates just how favourable the ‘baseline’ is to them.

If Grandma is pulling in six figures, odds on she’s not pulling for Winston.

We call it the Swarbrick quadrant.

While Greens have put a lot of emphasis on speaking and advocating for the poor that’s a demographic with a low vote turnout. Perhaps it’s environmentalists who are their well off supporters.

About that concentration of the Green’s in the bottom right… This is not saying most of the Greens vote comes from the young and rich (see health-warnings below). What it’s saying is that the Greens do comparatively better in areas where the population is on average both young and richer.

The specific places captured in those boxes are for the most part Wellington Central and Auckland’s inner west (Grey Lynn, Kingsland).

 

There is also relatively strong support in Dunedin North for the Greens, but I suspect that is less from scarfies and more from staff and their families.

Method

Each of these heat maps shows the relationship between: the percentage of the party vote each party received at each polling place in 2014, and the average age (for the total population, not just eligible voters) and average household income of the StatsNZ Area Unit (read: suburb) the polling place is located in, according to the 2013 Census.

I did the analysis at an area-unit and polling place level because that’s as granular as you can get. But I can’t stress this enough, this is a guide only. All the polling places and suburbs here have a lot of internal diversity, so don’t make too much of the trend. As a helpful tweep pointed put, there’s a lot of ecological fallacy risk here

The underlying data comes from a database I’ve rigged up using information published by the Electoral Commission.

More details, plus heat maps for the minor parties (Maori and Mana tend towards poor,  ACT towards rich and leaning young) in Age, income, and votes.

Dunedin North

I have checked the votes per polling booth for Dunedin North in 2014 and it roughly matches these heat maps.

National did best in more affluent suburbs like Maori Hill (52%), and in rural areas like Hampden, Palmerston, Dunback and Waikouaiti. They did poorly in lower decile areas like Brockville (22%), Port Chalmers (about 15%) and strong university areas.

Labour did well in South Dunedin, Pine Hill, Halfway Bush, Bradford and particularly Brockville. They did poorly in rural areas like Moeraki, Dunback and Herbert.

Greens did well in university polling booths and suburbs popular with university staff like Opoho and St Leonards, and also in alternative living areas like Waitati, plus at Age Concern They did poorly in poor areas like South Dunedin and Brockville, and also in rural areas.

NZ First oddly did poorly at Age Concern, and in university areas and affluent suburbs. They had stronger pockets of support in Brockville, Halfway Bush and Hampden, Moeraki and Long Beach.

 

 

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1 Comment

  1. Ratty

     /  August 27, 2017

    Dan McGlashan’s analysis of Green voters (Understanding New Zealand: A statistical journey through the demographic diversity of Aotearoa) has great analysis too.