What now for the campaign?

Bill English has proven capable of being a good enough Prime Minister. Jacinda Ardern stepped up in last night’s debate and showed that she can look Prime Ministerial.

Ardern wasn’t flawless in the debate, and English hasn’t been flawless as PM. Both have obvious vulnerabilities, personally and through their parties.

Polls show that Labour and National are statistically level pegging, with yesterday’s Colmar Brunton giving a slight advantage to Labour (43%-41%).

What now for the campaign?

Labour have obvious momentum and could keep rising, or they may have peaked and could settle back. National could slip some more, or when it comes to the crunch voters may be attracted back to the safer option. We’ll have to wait and see.

National have a good record on some things, especially on economic management during some difficult years. They also have valid criticism for their less than capable efforts on housing, and health is a major concern for voters who see growing problems. They have also accumulated a number of stuff ups and embarrassments that have taken their toll.

Labour has finally found a leader that appeals to voters. Ardern has turned around her party quite adeptly and dramatically. But they still have a weak looking caucus.

We now have three weeks and a day until the election, but advance voting opens in 10 days (on September 11). Not much time left, but going by a tumultuous campaign so far any number of things could still happen.

Barring any more major surprises I think the crux of the election will come down to three things in particular.

 1. The tide of change versus staying with what we know.

 2. Tax cuts versus uncertainty over possible tax changes and increases.

The National Government have already scheduled tax cuts from next April which amount to about $1,000 in the hand per average wage earner.

Labour have said they will wipe those cuts, they have announced a number of tax increases, and they won’t say what they will do with a capital gains tax (the implication is they will introduce a CGT with exemptions).

 3. Many voters will be having a good look at potential coalition arrangements and what that may mean beyond a single party’s policies.

On current polling:

  • National could only form a coalition with NZ First.
  • Labour could also form a coalition with NZ First.
  • Labour are close to being able to form a coalition with Greens and Maori.
  • Greens are close to not making it back into Parliament.

If National slip more, and/or if NZ First slip more (they have been trending down in the polls) then National may have no coalition options.

If Labour gain more and Greens survive then Labour could have a choice between NZ First and Greens.

An obvious advantage to Labour, but events and polls may have some more twists yet.

 

 

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21 Comments

  1. Gezza

     /  September 1, 2017

    Good analysis, imo. She’s gonna be a cliff hanger. An extra 24% signing up to vote according to 1ewes at 6 the other nite. How many of them are likely to vote National?
    Peters will be a nightmare.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  September 1, 2017

      Bryce Edwards just on tv1 Breakfast Show with wotsername, the screamer

      reckons Hosking silenced his critics
      Reckons Bill English was looking the most nervous going in, with good reason
      That he wouldn’t really like to pick a winner but, when pressed, ok – that “Jacinda Adern probably cane out slightly ahead”, but “both of them were losers” really ??
      (Missed a bit – waterbird feeding duties)

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  September 1, 2017

        * Melissa Stokes – sorry. Often have trouble remembering her name for some reason.

        And – just to correct my error above – she’s not a screamer (sorry Melissa) she’s a shrieker!

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  September 1, 2017

          Winston on now. Says staggered by answers. Hosking did a good job.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  September 1, 2017

            Actually Winny’s being no slouch – making some good points

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  September 1, 2017

              Giving Jack a bollocking re the superannuation debacle & Jack’s impertinence.
              Great comedy. 👍🏼 😀

  2. lurcher1948

     /  September 1, 2017

    One tick RED one tick BLACK should do it…

    Reply
  3. “National could only form a coalition with NZ First.” No mention of Act or the Maori Party??

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  September 1, 2017

      Now Little is gone I think the Maori party has been clear in preferring to form a govt with Labour next term? ACT are but one seat. Dunne is Done.

      Reply
  4. PDB

     /  September 1, 2017

    Quick! – hide Davis back behind the red curtain until after the election!

    “Labour will campaign on a capital gains tax in the next election, says the party’s deputy leader. But in a confused interview with the AM Show, Kelvin Davis appeared to know little of the detail of Labour’s tax stance and seemed to resile from that comment in the next breath”

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/96385172/labour-to-campaign-on-capital-gains-tax-at-next-electionor-maybe-not–kelvin-davis

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  September 1, 2017

      National are campaigning on being sound economic managers ,delivering for NZ’ers,but survey says NO productivity gains for nearly 5 YEARS!Hellooooooooooooooooooo!

      Reply
      • PDB

         /  September 1, 2017

        Ardern has made Labour’s CGT policy very clear to Davis, that is it’s to be as unclear as possible!

        “Labour leader Jacinda Ardern has given her deputy a ticking off for confirming Labour will campaign on a capital gains tax in the next election.

        In a confused interview with the AM Show, Kelvin Davis appeared to know little of the detail of Labour’s tax stance and seemed to resile from that comment in the next breath.
         
        Ardern said she had not seen the interview, but Davis was “now very clear on our position”.” 

        Reply
  5. Reminding NZ of some of the last horrid players in Labour could be a strategy. Lifted from no minister. Tip of the iceberg stuff.

    Benson-Pope (tennis champion,)
    Field (helping his constituents – jailed)
    Samuels (hotel hall piddler,)
    Hodgson (chief dirt digger,)
    Hughes (ahem,)
    Mallard (assaulter,)
    Carter (over-sensitive clothing allowance,)
    Harre (for hire to the highest bidder,)
    Dyson (drunk in charge)
    Horomia (it was Burger King, not MacDonalds,)
    Hobbs (Fijian election monitor)

    Imagine more of the same for another 9 years

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  September 1, 2017

      so how was your life when Labour was in power?

      Reply
    • Blazer

       /  September 1, 2017

      Bill English-double dipper,serial texter,selective memory,liar.
      Paula Bennett -skeletons,no knowledge of portfolios,looks at the camera and lies
      Stephen Joyce-MBIE extravagance,Thiel deal,as slippery as an eel.
      Simon Bridges-trying to be a smile and wave clone of Keys,hides reports,amnesia
      Jonathan Coleman-smoke doctor,depreciation will solve budgets,close but no cigar
      Amy Adams-given the housing hospital pass,no hope.
      Nick Smith-tired,stupid and an old pet headed for the morgue.
      Gerry Brownlee-bungles into Foreign Affairs,throws ample weight around..
      Ann Tolley-needs guidance,in hiding,lap belt should have been around mouth.
      to be continued.

      Reply
    • Corky.

       /  September 1, 2017

      What a rogues gallery. And to think we may be weeks away from their spawn inflicting themeslves upon us. Lets hope God has a blue rinse and decides to protect us.

      Talking of Mallard, I hear Tau was never the same after that hiding he recieved. He wears a crash helmet whenever he goes out.

      Reply

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