Who won the debate?

There have been a number of online polls following the debate between Jacinda Ardern and Bill English, with varying results.

Media seem determined to find a winner, but that seems to be missing the mark, like this:

Stuff: Who won the debate?

Three experts with three different verdicts on the winner of the first leaders debate between Jacinda Ardern and Bill English.

Associate Professor Grant Duncan teaches political theory and New Zealand politics at Massey University’s Albany campus. He called it an honourable draw.

A policy analyst at the New Zealand Initiative, Janesa Jeram awarded the debate to English.

“Bill won the debate, but Jacinda successfully proved that ‘relentlessly positive’ doesn’t mean pushover,” she said.

“Bill was surprisingly upbeat given tonight’s poll, and could give policies that should make sense to New Zealanders across the country. Whereas Jacinda struggled to sell some of Labour’s more theoretical, less fleshed out policies.”

Political commentator Liam Hehir said Ardern was upbeat, conversant enough with the details and made no real missteps.

“Bill English was his usual sober self and also didn’t make any real mistakes (though there was a hint of defensiveness at times).

“Neither combatant landed a knockout blow, but there was more positive here for Ardern than there was for English – so it is a victory on points to her.

No clear winner and missing the point. The election is still more than three weeks away when voters get to decidce, and the debate was just one chance of assessing the options.

And then Stuff lists these experts pre-debate predictions.

Duncan predicted the debate would be an “honourable draw”.

Jeram said the debate could go either way, but if she had to choose, “I’d back Bill”.

“I predict that Jacinda Ardern will win,” Hehir said.

No change from in their verdicts from any of their predictions.

Civility won the debate.

Democracy won the debate, if you believe that it’s good democracy to promote the two biggest parties and ignore the rest.

Rugby tests tend not to be determined by pundits trying to work out who won the first kick off.

The campaign continues today, and regardless of opinions about the debate there will be no clear winner until September 23, and even then we may have to wait for another few weeks to see what our next government will look like.

53 Comments

  1. A vulnerability for Ardern.

    • Gezza

       /  September 1, 2017

      Why?

      • PDB

         /  September 1, 2017

        • Gezza

           /  September 1, 2017

          Mightn’t be a bad idea?
          You sure you don’t want to just emigrate?
          If you’re going to be ruined?

          • PDB

             /  September 1, 2017

            Profit is used for many things G including being reinvested back into businesses to further grow & develop them.

            Profit also goes up and down year by year so one very good year would offset one very bad one. If the govt dictated how much profit one could make in a good year this balancing act doesn’t occur.

            The State dictating how much profit a business can make would be a terrible thing.

            • Gezza

               /  September 1, 2017

              Possibly. I think it’s been done in some places, maybe here – before?
              Wonder if it bankrupted any country? Zimbabwe or Venezuela maybe, I dunno – and if I owned, say, a stoat-trapping business & my margins were going to be impacted I’d be grumpy too. But I still think yo’re panicking over nothing. There’s clearly no grand master plan to screw profitable businesses, cost workers jobs & let the country get overtaken by nasty, rabid, whingeing, anti-Key socialist stoats.

            • PDB

               /  September 1, 2017

              It’s probably the biggest issue of this election and it is being basically ignored by the MSM. Some more info from both sides of the argument here;

              https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/96182177/labour-needs-to-detail-its-fair-pay-agreement-policy

              You have seen first hand the effect on costs that something relatively simple as hiking aged-care workers wages has made. Now imagine that approach being applied across most businesses. Lifting wages is a good aim but artificially lifting them too much can mean economic disaster.

            • Blazer

               /  September 1, 2017

              actually our biggest export is profits…the aussie banks alone garnish around 5-6 billion a year.National hate Kiwi Bank,Kiwisaver and the Cullen fund….because they retain earnings for…NZ’ers.

    • Corky

       /  September 1, 2017

      As Mikey said. Sooner or later, she will have to talk numbers. But Jenna is wrong. It’s not a classic…its par for the course.

    • Blazer

       /  September 1, 2017

      quite easily….you increase the selling price….if the tax on water increases the cost of a cabbage by 0.6c you put the price up.Back to school ..Jenna.

      • David

         /  September 1, 2017

        What happens is people stop buying cabbage and buy something else or they have cabbage once aweek instead of every night.

  2. Corky

     /  September 1, 2017

    Jacinda won the debate…because she’s on a roll and is too pretty to be wrong. That’s how shallow the voting public is. A more pertinent question may be: Are the debates now irrelevant? New voting enrolments would suggest so. Lets hope not. Surely the real world needs to account for something.

  3. Gezza

     /  September 1, 2017

    Corin Dann says on Breakfast tv1 English was solid – maybe he did win the debate, not by much if so
    But, Ardern made no slips up, sounded authentic, showed she knew her stuff on the economy, very impressive performance
    English showed fire in the belly as well

    Sounds like he’s picking them as neck and neck, looking forward to the next debate

    • PDB

       /  September 1, 2017

      If Little had given the same display as Ardern last night he would have been hammered for being ‘shifty’ on tax and immigration numbers, ‘evasive’ in not giving straight answers to the most basic of questions, and ‘dour’ by not smiling and frowning the whole time.

      People are giving Ardern far more leeway than her predecessors Cunliffe, Goff, Little and Shearer. Her ‘positive’ campaign and being female seems to be a protective umbrella from being made to answer the tough questions.

      • Blazer

         /  September 1, 2017

        get over it…

        • Trevors_elbow

           /  September 1, 2017

          Get over it… so spaketh Fraser House and all dictatorial Lefties…

          She is a show pony with little to no capacity for real work or leadership…

          Artful campaign by Auntie H and her old crew

      • Gezza

         /  September 1, 2017

        She had answers. Andy was always a possum in headlights (Sorry sis – u know wot I mean). He never did.

        You didn’t like the answers. Still think you’re panicking too much, too early.

        Let Joyce do the sweating, & get off his fat, smug, complacent bum!

        Breakfast show did a poll of young voters in the audience – apparently a significant number like that Ardern was a Spring Chicken, but – to their surprise – felt that English had a better handle on running the country.

        • PDB

           /  September 1, 2017

          Not sure what I’m meant to be panicking about?

          I’ve been ‘very clear’ and fully ‘transparent’ on here in that I do not want a National govt with NZL First. Considering the only way National can pretty much govern now is with NZL First I’m therefore against a National-led govt next term.

          Though I’d also like NZL First to be part of any Labour govt which now looks slightly less likely.

          • Gezza

             /  September 1, 2017

            I think you’re overlooking an important but in my view possibly quite workable stable coalition option. But, we’ll see.

  4. Anonymous Coward

     /  September 1, 2017

    Have you guys seen this site?
    http://elections-zavy.co/

    It tracks social media engagement from the party’s social media pages, you can select which party to look at and up the top left you can switch between facebook, twitter and instagram. Click on the line at any point to see what the post was that got the reaction plotted.
    It’s quite interesting. Seems the greens are the only party with an instagram account.


  5. I thought Hosking wasn’t too bad but he seemed to do more debating than Ardern or English.

    I thought he was harder on Ardern too.

    • Gezza

       /  September 1, 2017

      TV1 Breakfast hosts agree harder on Ardern – some pol scientist said he interrupted Ardern more too – but she finessed that fine. That Comms degree is paying for itself at last by the look of it.

      David Seymour coming up
      Deb Russell too

      • Gezza

         /  September 1, 2017

        David Seymour just called Winston Peters “odd and doddery”. Told off he repeated it, and said “lots of people who are 72 are not odd and doddery – but he is!”
        He said if he’s “Mr Superannuation” as he presents himself, can’t update his information in 7 years, if he can’t manage superannuation for one person! how can he seriously expect to mange it for 5 million! (5 million?😕)

        Deb looks hot! She reckons NZ First may not be needed by either Labour or National, which would be great.

    • PDB

       /  September 1, 2017

      “I thought he was harder on Ardern too.”

      To be fair to Hosking she more often than not avoided asking simple questions so he had to be harder on her (including interrupting her diversions) in terms of trying to get a straight answer.

      For instance on Tax she keep going back to talking of ‘being transparent with people and values’ rather than answer why if that is the case why isn’t she being transparent over the amount of tax we all would be paying. On Labours 1970’s style workplace policy she keep banging on about aged-care workers when asked three times to explain how her policy would affect a group like forestry workers.

      • PDB

         /  September 1, 2017

        • Blazer

           /  September 1, 2017

          Bill dismissed OECD and JB Were data showing productivity is flat…since 2012.Productivity is the engine room that drives the economy….Joyce and English know they are vulnerable on that so they just obsfucate.(to put it kindly)

        • Gezza

           /  September 1, 2017

          I understand the Fire Service is still pumping sweat out of Steven’s office? 😳

      • Anonymous Coward

         /  September 1, 2017

        I thought he behaved very much like a man who’d been shown the 80 000 signatures that wanted him gone. He was a lot harder on Bill than I expected him to be.

  6. Comeonbro

     /  September 1, 2017

    https://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2017/09/listen-cam-slater-radio-live-mitch-harris/#more-331094

    Here we go. Slater will think he won the debate as he returned to MSM. The more he was loved by the listeners the more “secrets” of the National Party he spilled. They even gave him a second hour! I conclude all the man wants is attention and to be loved by the left.

  7. duperez

     /  September 1, 2017

    I refuse to watch the debates unless they’re done properly. I’m a child of a generation expecting my entertainment to be done well.

    Where was the second by second statistical analysis? What were the possession statistics? What about the missed tackles? Who had the most carries? Who turned over possession more often and where on the field?

    No slow mo replays of the critical seconds, no ultra slow mo close ups and no Spidercam relegate it to downmarket and poorly done.

    At the bare minimum I expect the two contenders to be standing centre ring at the end between the announcer. Then with due fanfare, there’d be the reading out score cards and then – cut to commercial break – coming back and raising someone’s arm and giving them a shiny belt.

    • pickled possum

       /  September 1, 2017

      Yea Right on Dopez!!!!
      You took the words right outta my mouth
      Just what I was thinking. 😉

      • pickled possum

         /  September 1, 2017

        Oh NOOOOOOooo it was supposed to be D *u* pez
        Sorry 8-(

  8. sorethumb

     /  September 1, 2017

    Ardern was asked last night who was going to build the houses if immigration was cut back, my 14 year old son turned to me and asked “why doesn’t she just say that if there are fewer migrants fewer houses would need to be built”. Sadly, I could only point out that Labour’s approach to immigration actually isn’t materially different to the National Party’s. The net inflow might be a lower in the first year, but in the essentials they are two sides of the same coin.
    https://croakingcassandra.com/2017/09/01/productivity-wages-and-other-debate-thoughts/

    • Joe Bloggs

       /  September 1, 2017

      Dear Lord, you mean to say you’ve raised another generation of xenophobes??? 😦

  9. Brown

     /  September 1, 2017

    Sounds like I should have delayed my return from overseas so I could safely ignore the next debate as well.