1 News Colmar Brunton – Labour still lead

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 43% (no change from 43%)
  • National 39% (down from 41%)
  • NZ First 9%  (up from 8%)
  • Greens 5% (no change)
  • TOP 1.9% (up from 0.9%)
  • Maori Party 2% rounded
  • ACT 0.1% (down from 0.3%)

So Labour have held on to their lead, and National have slipped a bit more (the Joyce effect?).

NZ First are steady-ish, and so are the Greens but still right on the threshold.

This poll was done between Saturday 2 September and Wednesday 6 September.

The last poll (in brackets) was conducted 26-30 August:

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 35% (up from 34%)
  • Bill English 31 (down from 33%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (up from 4%)

The full report from the last poll (they delay posting this by a couple of days).

76 Comments

  1. PDB

     /  September 7, 2017

    If accurate National and the Greens won’t be happy……though the left-wing dream of Labour/Greens/Maori party is still on.

    • Corky

       /  September 7, 2017

      The Maori Party will drop National like a hot potatoe given half the chance.

      • High Flying Duck

         /  September 7, 2017

        They have already said quite clearly they would prefer to be in Government with Labour.

        I’m fairly sure they would not have ever gone into Government with National at any stage if they were required to do so to form a Government. They are more pragmatic than the Greens though and preferred to have the opportunity to help shape change rather than railing on the outside.

        It is an unusual situation given they were formed due to disgust with Labour policies on Maori and Labour still have absolutely no time for them.

        • Corky

           /  September 7, 2017

          Oh, I didn’t know that.

          • PDB

             /  September 7, 2017

            As soon as Little left Labour the Maori party were straight in for closer ties to Labour and said that was their ‘natural home’ the one their people preferred them to be in.

            • Gezza

               /  September 8, 2017

              Labour will make time for any Maori Party candidates elected if they need their votes. It’ll be fun watching them both at Question Time though, perhaps?

  2. David

     /  September 7, 2017

    Does National actually have a campaign manager, advertising agency, strategists etc given they have 5 times the amount of cash Labour have they are being absolutely smoked in the campaign.
    They need to take some action and quickly, Labours campaign is very smart in comparison.

    • I think that English has done ok but otherwise National’s campaign has been terrible. I think Joyce is in charge of that.

      The Joyce effect seems to be the opposite of the Jacinda effect.

      • PDB

         /  September 7, 2017

        Always going to be a tough ask going for a fourth term, even with the excellent shape the economy now sits in. In 1969 Muldoon won a fourth term for National even though Keith Holyoake was the PM – National lacks that new face in its front bench.

        From what I’m told National is actually running a pretty decent grassroots ‘on the ground’ campaign with its volunteers and English appears to be doing more stuff on the road than Ardern but people may want a change for change sake.

        • The signs are certainly for momentum for change at this stage. It will be hard to reverse that.

          • PDB

             /  September 7, 2017

            I think a little of this is New Zealanders ‘buying in’ on the recent Western craze of dumping the government for the ‘shiny and new’ as seen in Canada, France and the US.

            Certainly Labour have more partnership options – Labour/Greens/Maori and Labour/NZL First both distinct possibilities. Winston has been unusually quiet of late. National have few options in that department & the concern for them must be if they lose the election who takes over the leadership? The usual suspects (Bridges, Bennett, Collins etc) will never win a general election.

            • Anonymous Coward

               /  September 7, 2017

              I dunno, When Jacinda and Bridges were first elected they were given a regular slot on morning TV as they were the two youngest MPs.
              There’s a certain symmetry to them both being party leaders at the same time.

        • Joe Bloggs

           /  September 7, 2017

          Yup, 4th term jitters eh PDB…

          English certainly looks like he’s entered the dreaded third term death spiral, no small thanks to his gimp-mate Steven’s $11.7b blunder.

          Aaand it looks like Labour might actually pull off what was thought impossible just a month ago.

    • duperez

       /  September 7, 2017

      Listener 13 April, 2017

      “As the man in charge of National’s re-election prospects, new Finance Minister Steven Joyce has his sights firmly set on a fourth term.

      Politicians need to be able to count.”

      http://www.noted.co.nz/currently/profiles/steven-joyce-national-strategist-and-minister-of-everything/

  3. Patzcuaro

     /  September 7, 2017

    ACT’s campaign launch hasn’t given the much of a bounce.

    • duperez

       /  September 7, 2017

      They don’t need a bounce, they didn’t need a launch. Epsom voters will do what they’re told and DS will be back.

  4. Gezza

     /  September 7, 2017

    Very interesting. Polls are indicating a major move for change – Jacinda is making it a young vs old campaign though.

    • Patzcuaro

       /  September 7, 2017

      Or home owner vs renter.

    • PDB

       /  September 7, 2017

      As I mentioned elsewhere also a very female vrs male campaign as well, specifically in the middle age bracket and above. I think Winston especially has had to cough up quite a few older female supporters to Labour in the past few weeks and now we might be seeing this happen to National as well.

      • Gezza

         /  September 7, 2017

        I can’t be bothered going back & watching it later on youtube when it’ll probably work. I’ll just follow the pundits’ analyses. I’m now expecting Labour to tax older people who scrimped & saved & made owning their own home a priority, not just those who’ve invested in properties as investments. I’m not happy about that so will have to do a rethink on voting intentions.

        • PDB

           /  September 7, 2017

          Just be happy you’re not a farmer G – land tax, CGT, water tax, emissions tax. The new Jews and as they don’t traditionally vote for Labour easy targets for giving a good kicking.

          Just as well those urbanites live such a clean living, pollution free existence with pure waterways or else Labour might just tax them too….

  5. Patzcuaro

     /  September 7, 2017

    It seems a bit odd that a party polling 0.1% is at the leaders debate and one (TOP) at 1.9% isn’t. National’s is allowed to bring their pet poodle but a stray off the street isn’t allowed in. The stray must be green with envy.

    • PDB

       /  September 7, 2017

      The fact they call it the ‘minor leaders debate’ probably sums up a big part of the problem as to why MMP isn’t doing what it promised to do.

  6. patupaiarehe

     /  September 7, 2017

    So Labour have held on to their lead, and National have slipped a bit more (the Joyce effect?).

    Possibly. Then again, it could just as likely be the ‘Bennett effect’…

    • Gezza

       /  September 7, 2017

      Nah – the Bennett-Streissand Effect is still just happening with a boutique few imo.

      • Gezza

         /  September 7, 2017

        After picking a series of no-hopers as leaders, Labour’s picked one who knows about communication, advertising & targeting, & National’s had its 3 terms, people want a change.

      • patupaiarehe

         /  September 7, 2017

        Nope G, it’s going viral, and people are very unimpressed.

        • Gezza

           /  September 7, 2017

          Evidence?

          • patupaiarehe

             /  September 7, 2017

            The only evidence I have is the number of people who have mentioned it to me. Since I saw the original Facebook post less than a week ago, three completely unrelated people have mentioned it to me. What are the odds of that? And there is still over two weeks until the election… I’d be interested to see the top ten google searches for Paula Bennett this week 😀

          • Blazer

             /  September 8, 2017

            hey Gezza ,do you think the fact [deleted, use names but not if they will cause legal problems here] threw in the lawyers with cease and desist notices/injunctions and her claim she never deliberately mislead don’t indicate its a bit more than ..fake news.Despicable individual who sold her soul.

            • Gezza

               /  September 8, 2017

              It’s hard to say. I don’t know if I can adequately convey to you the level of my intense disappointment that to date nothing more has come of this when apparently truth is a rock solid defense against a defamation suit! 😠

            • Blazer

               /  September 8, 2017

              look at the [cautionary delete due to legal implications],if you want to see the cone of silence that Nationals lawyers can construct.Too messy to allow before an election.

            • Gezza

               /  September 8, 2017

              God I can’t even remember the outcome of that case. Was he convicted?I was thinking of the Barclay case where National’s lawyers must’ve been out lunch or something. Maybe it depends on who the lawyers are? What was the outcome of that awkward Darren Hughes business?

  7. Patzcuaro

     /  September 8, 2017

    It is increasing looking like Key threw a hospital pass as he headed for the tunnel. English was the unlucky recipient. Labour seems to have a better bench now with the late introduction of Ardern. Major questions hang over the coach, Joyce, for National who has put himself on at first five. His kicking game seems off with one long punt going out on the full.

    • I think English and National could have done it 9and still may). The hospital pass was from Andrew Little, and National have campaigned badly since then.

      They look desperate and panicky.

      • Patzcuaro

         /  September 8, 2017

        I don’t think Little threw a hospital pass. More like National had been exerting pressure on the Labour line for a long period of play, when an exhausted Little saw a gap open up down the blind and passed a perfectly weighed pass to Ardern.

        Ardern, once in behind the National defensive line, was away. As she sidestepped around Joyce he attempted to trip her but failed. As play stands National is on the back foot with Ardern leading the charge into National territory follow by the reinvigorated Labour team.

        There are some sideline distractions with the Maori and Mana parties coming together for a haka. NZ First has been appealing to the officials claiming that there are too many imported players. The Greens claimed that not enough money has been trickling down to the minor unions and they are unable to pay there players a living wage, forgetting that their main job is to look after the grounds.

        National’s mascot, a poodle called ACT has been running up and down the sideline trying to get some attention but is being ignored. United First who tend to stand on the half way line and help the attacking team have realised that nobody wants them any more and have decided to retire before they are dumped.

        A new team, owned by a wealthy philanthropist, wants to join in but has realised that it is not a level playing field and you have to have a seat at the table before you can be taken seriously. The last party to attempt to join the game, also the toy of a wealthy individual, found the going too tough. It’s leader who was extremely confident, lost his focus and started to write romantic poetry. Unfortunately it wasn’t well received. He has since gone to University to study the law.

        What was once going to be a one sided game with National romping to victory under it’s previous leader a retired currency trader, has turned into a thrller. Having looked at this charts, he decided that the National currency had had a good run and looked to have peaked, so he passed the captaincy over to his deputy and went off to play golf. A case of take the money and run.

        Heading into the last five minutes, the game is relatively evenly poised but the Blues are tiring and the game could be slipping away from them. On the other hand the Reds making the most of he wind getting up behind them, look surprisingly fresh.

        • Gezza

           /  September 8, 2017

          👍🏼 🏆

        • Patzcuaro

           /  September 8, 2017

          Maybe it was a hospital pass from Little or a Hail Mary pass, which ever, it wrong footed the opposition opening up a big gap. You could say that National were lined up very flat across the field without much in reserve. Now they are relying on a scrambling defence, with little structure.

          • PDB

             /  September 8, 2017

            If Labour do get in and the economy tanks the New Zealand people will be feeling like this….

    • High Flying Duck

       /  September 8, 2017

      Do they really have the better bench, or is the campaign doing a great job of putting Ardern front and center and hiding the fact the shiny new facade still fronts the same tired interior cabinet?
      National have run a very average campaign. Their new ads are a rehash of last time and the message is getting old. They are campaigning on what was instead of what could be and Labour are taking advantage of that without anyone putting any pressure on to define specifics.
      After 9 years the Nats were always going to be fighting against a mood for change as much as the actual opposition. They banked on the opposition self-destructing again, but this is looking highly unlikely and so they will in all likelihood be burnt come election day.
      Personally I think there will be “buyers remorse” with a Labour Government given the policy direction they have indicated.
      On the other hand I haven’t seen anything compelling so far in this campaign to make me want to vote National back in…

      • Gezza

         /  September 8, 2017

        What other options does that leave you with?

      • Blazer

         /  September 8, 2017

        even giving English the benefit of the doubt,the next 2 senior cabinet ministers Bennett and Joyce now both look like liabilities.Joyce now has no credibility as finance minister.

        • Gezza

           /  September 8, 2017

          Possibly, but can Labour get away with Ganesh as theirs & Robertson just getting him to put budgets together?

          • Blazer

             /  September 8, 2017

            as you know Ganesh is not a Labour M.P.He has,however a long and distinguished career at BERL.Robertson is as well qualified as Joyce ,thats for sure and was appointed by Little not Adern.Labours David Parker is far and away the most qualified and able( imo) finance identity in..Parliament.

            • Pete Kane

               /  September 8, 2017

              Although I find Parker a little conservative (finance) for my taste, he’s formable, I agree Blaz.. With the addition of Russell, and Clark, that is a very strong Finance/Tax team. Now who in Labour have I left out?

            • Gezza

               /  September 8, 2017

              I better go and check Parker out. He’s never impressed me at Question Time, or any other time, for that matter. Would Ardern get away with booting Robertson out of the FM job or would he get nasty. That could be an issue maybe.

            • Gezza

               /  September 8, 2017

              Although I find Parker a little conservative (finance) for my taste, he’s formable, I agree Blaz

              😳 Are you saying he’s plastic ? 🤔

            • Pete Kane

               /  September 8, 2017

              He’s no Sir Robert in the House, that’s for sure, I agree G

            • Pete Kane

               /  September 8, 2017

              formidable

            • Gezza

               /  September 8, 2017

              And how can Clark expect to have any credibility with that haircut?!

      • Patzcuaro

         /  September 8, 2017

        National are looking increasing jaded after 9 years in office, whereas Labour at least has a fresh bench. Time will tell if the win and then whether they are any good. They only get 3 years but will want more so will have an eye on 2020!

        • High Flying Duck

           /  September 8, 2017

          You have mentioned this “fresh bench” a few times. Who amongst them is fresh? Even Jacinda has been there 9 years.
          If you stretch you could say National are so stale that anything looks fresh, but the thoroughly unpersuasive policies of 3 and 6 years ago are still the policies now. They have just been hidden behind ‘transparency’ and ‘committees’.
          Labour are planning to make ending child poverty “the law” FFS.
          Labour in England were (rightly) mocked mercilessly for that facile stance a few years back.
          If you can name one coherent articulated policy for Labour for this election you’d be making things up, because other than sprinkling the money fairy around in a visionary fashion they have none.
          It is working for them, so all power and all that, but people are simply jumping on the charisma train at this stage. Coupled with Steven Joyce making many a blunder (including deciding to campaign on status quo rather than stepping things up) there is a sleepwalk to change.
          The NZ Dollar plummeted when the Colmar poll came out because there is rightful concern as to what direction we are going to veer towards come end of September.

          • Blazer

             /  September 8, 2017

            But a lower dollar is great for our exports and tourism…former P.M and forex ‘expert’ reckoned 66c/to the U.S was about right.

            • High Flying Duck

               /  September 8, 2017

              While a lower dollar has some benefits to exporters, it reflects a lack of confidence in the economy when it is being sold off. Especially as it was last night.
              A strong growing economy with a strong dollar is the ideal – Unless you prefer the “south Pacific peso” talk of old making a resurgence.
              It isn’t necessarily a Labour government that is the problem. It is the uncertainty of a government coming in with a very vague policy platform in place.

            • Blazer

               /  September 8, 2017

              floating dollar is just a forex gamblers construct.Serves what useful purpose?I think the NZ Dollar was the 10th or 11th most traded currency in the world.Plenty would disagree with a strong dollar at parity with the U.S.

            • High Flying Duck

               /  September 8, 2017

              You are, of course, completely wrong Blazer.
              While there is some forex trading in markets, and we are highly traded, we are also a strongly export focused nation and our growth is reliant on international investment.
              The value of the dollar may bounce around a little on traders whims, but the overall trend is very much a factor of investor (not speculator) confidence in the direction the country is taking and the strength of its economy.
              If you look worldwide, currencies fall in value when the economy tanks or when instability or uncertainty take hold.
              That is what we have with Labour at the moment.
              They may provide clarity and direction at some point, but at the moment their transparency is a window through which no substance is seen.

            • Blazer

               /  September 9, 2017

              @High Flying Duck…I take issue with your conclusions.Which OECD countries are not reliant on trade?You say that ‘while there is SOME forex trading’….try this…’ According to the last triennial survey of the Bank of International Settlement (BIS), the size of the forex market turnover as at 2016 was $5.2trillion.’ a day.It is hot ,speculative money,that fuels the forex market….that is UNDENIABLE,despite your heroic attempt at minimisation.You are I’m sure au fait with derivatives,shorts and historical attacks on sovereign currencies.

  8. Blazer

     /  September 8, 2017

    love this….’Though she concedes that she could not have progressed as she did under her own new rules’….and

    ‘Her political ambitions, however, are limited. Bennett for prime minister? “Not for anything. I hate the level of scrutiny at this level of my job, there’s no way I’d handle it at that one.”
    what a wonderful….gal!

    • Pete Kane

       /  September 8, 2017
      • Pete Kane

         /  September 8, 2017

        Garner’s quite thick. Seriously.

        • Gezza

           /  September 8, 2017

          Thoroughly enjoyed watching that. One of the better, more insistently controlled, more persistent political interviews I’ve seen. Where do you think Garner was thick?

      • Blazer

         /  September 8, 2017

        its a wonder those two blokes didn’t come to…blows.

      • Patzcuaro

         /  September 8, 2017

        I’m not entire sure that Davis was the best choice as deputy. He covers the provincial, male and Maori as opposed to the urban, female and Pakeha. But appears uncomfortable in the role. Would Nash have been better, he covers everything except the Maori side.

        On the National side, Bennett, Bridges and Coleman haven’t really improved their standing during the campaign.

        • Gezza

           /  September 8, 2017

          Nah Kelvin’s a good choice – a bit of passion & fire & being Maori should be an advantage. Nash just another yuppie.

          • Gezza

             /  September 8, 2017

            Actually, just to expand on that – Kelvin’s fire & passion – he could maybe learn to think before he speaks a bit more, but his is real.

            Jacinda’s is projected well – but hers I think is actually less real, more of a branding technique.

  9. Zedd

     /  September 8, 2017

    The MSM keep saying ‘NZ has a safe pair of hands on the economy’ BUT it seems that after Joyce’s B-S over $11.7bil hole in Labour’s figures.. its sounding more & more like ‘Bluff & Bluster’ followed by the usual ‘we know best & everyone else is plain wrong !’ misinfo.

    The 4th term is looking more elusive/unlikely.. by the day ! (fingers crossed) 😀